The weather is looking very challenging for many areas this Spring and for the harvest period for 2022 and here is what we are looking at as a whole. A first look at the major issues coming over the 3–6-month period.
Heavy rainfall leading to flooding over much of the east and southeast inland looks to be of great concern. The Indian Ocean Dipole in negative phase to peak through this period is to blame.
Well above average rainfall for much of the southern and central interior with a flood risk but not as elevated as over the east.
Above average rainfall possible over SWLD of WA but the heavier rainfall signal may be north of the Ag Areas for now.
Cooler than average weather for much of the nation's interior, under the heavier cloud cover and the above average rainfall chances which will be via jet streams and cold front combining. Inland low pressure could bring well below average temperatures.
Early onset rainfall over northern Australia could increase moisture profile over northern and eastern Australia leading to an early start to storm season 2022.
SEVERE WEATHER PROBLEMS
FLOODING - ABOVE AVERAGE RISK EAST
With the excessive moisture running through the nation, we have already seen excessive rainfall this year for many of the Agricultural Areas in the east, the flood risk is remaining very elevated at this point through Winter 2022 and will likely extend into Spring 2022.
Many areas have struggled to plant due to the wet weather in the east (dry weather for SA) and that wet signal is forecast to strengthen through the Winter and into Spring. All areas should be impacted by Spring for some significant rainfall and above average values is a very high chance. Where the flooding remains, a high risk is much of inland NSW, and points north to southern QLD and south into VIC. The lower risk of riverine flooding is likely for SA and WA at this time, but Outback areas could be impacted by the constant rainfall sweeping through jet stream across the country from northwest to southeast.
The flooding could rival what we saw in 2016 over NSW, but not one event is ever the same, so going off a benchmark, I think that period is a good one as it is recent, and many people were caught off guard, so it helps for you out there to know what we are dealing with.
This is a very much heads up information pack and more specifics and details will come in the months ahead on this topic.
SEVERE STORMS - ABOVE AVERAGE RISK EAST
We are seeing the high amplitude pattern setting up across the nation more often now, with the frontal weather beginning to move northwards closer to Australia. We have higher than normal temperatures forecast to persist through Winter over northern Australia. We are likely to have higher moisture content running through the jet stream with strong upper-level winds. All the ingredients are forecast to converge from time to time and this will result in severe weather outbreaks.
Damaging winds will likely feature at an above average risk through the south and west of the nation with stronger cold fronts and the ocean temperatures running at their coolest values coming into Spring and the landmass warming up faster than normal, we will see that result in broad land gales being a higher risk.
Riverine flooding is clearly a significant risk through the southeast and eastern inland with some risk extending back northwest through central and western interior parts of the nation. That has been covered off above.
Severe storm outbreaks will likely run very high from late September through October and November, resulting in damaging weather events to Ag Areas, especially in the east and southeast. Values of risk come down as you head further west but they will be higher than normal for the Ag Areas in SA and near seasonal, leaning above normal for WA.
The storm season is likely to kick off about a month earlier than normal on current guide.
FROST - BELOW AVERAGE
There will be frosty spells in September and October for southern and western parts of the nation, but in saying that the risk will be mitigated by the warmer than normal temperatures over the northern Australia, the higher-than-normal moisture content sweeping through the nation and the elevated SSTs surrounding Australia at This point.
But all it takes is one rogue system and so I never rule that out in these periods, and so obviously being about 4-5 months out it is speculative but not unreasonable to come up with that conclusion based on the guidance provided thus far.
Frost risk is below normal for much of the Winter Season ahead but that does not mean we do not see one late season frost through mid-October.
DISEASE RISK - ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
With the higher-than-normal moisture content and the rainfall being fairly elevated over much of the nation, the one ingredient that will dictate this being a major problem will be the temperature values. The temperatures coupled with the humidity will determine the types of diseases we will be seeing across cereal crops to the new foliage on the summer stone fruit crops etc.
The temperatures are forecast to be near seasonal at this point and below average for the eastern inland and extending possibly to the southeast inland. Warmer than normal weather is forecast over the northern parts of the country could spread into much of QLD.
The rainfall may reduce in the SWLD, but the moisture content could still be elevated thanks to the higher SSTs over the western waters.
All the ingredients, higher than average humidity, seasonal temperatures and well above average rainfall will create the perfect breeding ground for fungal issues of crops and water logging of soils leading to further disease risk.
So, this is very preliminary data this morning and gives you an idea of where things are going over the coming 3-6 months.