Southern and eastern areas have had some recovery rainfall during the past 2-3 months with a good supply of regular systems and moisture in place to be utilised to produce rainfall.
Rain areas have failed to eventuate for areas of central and western QLD with the drought rolling on with not too much in the way of weather systems to move through from the west or north.
We are seeing some shift, via the jet stream, to the longer term drought conditions to this region. Future modelling is looking much more positive.
Rainfall anomalies deviating from the median rainfall expected for August to October 2021.
The Indian Ocean is warming up and going to be sending in a large amount of moisture throughout the atmosphere via the jet stream. That is an element to watch over the coming few weeks and indeed into the months ahead to see how this verifies.
Back to the short term, but a large cloud band is expected to cross through the nation bringing widespread rainfall and cloudiness, some of this may encroach into western and central QLD.
This is the dry season for the region, though it has been the dry season for 7 years for some, but at least there are some rain in view.
Simulated Water Vapour Satellite - Valid Thursday 17th of June 2021.
Note the extension of moisture now being drawn out of the tropics and dragged south into cold fronts and troughs through the forecast period. This will help bring a change to rainfall potential during the coming weeks over northern parts of the nation. Dry season rainfall is not uncommon through these parts, via these types of systems.
The corresponding precipitable water values are also encouraging, we just need to have lifting mechanisms in place to utilise this moisture and to lift it into areas of rainfall for the region, which can happen. During this time of year, the rainfall is generally light and the cloud is thick, but falls generally patchy.
And we are seeing the patchy rainfall during the coming outlook period, with light falls about the north of the nation, with some of that spilling over into Central and Western QLD. The heavier of the rainfall will be through the southern half of the nation where it should be for this time of year.
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 17th of June 2021.
There is a gap in the current forecast for central and northwestern QLD, but this could potentially fill in over the coming days as we get better data coming in. The bulk of the rainfall will be more generous the closer you are to the NSW border and over the Great Dividing Range in the east.
Latest rainfall data tonight supports the above forecast of keeping western and central QLD areas dry, but I am not buying that just yet, so watch this space.
CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 17th of June 2021
GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 17th of June 2021
Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 17th of June 2021
A little more aggressive with bringing the light rainfall signals into the region in the coming 10 days as opposed to above.
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