FRONTAL WEATHER AND A LOW TO BRING MORE RAINFALL CHANCES - A WET END TO JULY POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN SA

Well a surprise packet today across SA, with a slow moving band of showers over the southern coastal areas producing some heavy falls. 10-30mm over parts of the coastal areas of the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas. 45mm the top fall at Neptune Island, that rainfall now starting to move north and east.


More showers are expected tonight and tomorrow with local hail and thunder, with that focus shifting further east during the day as the air stabalises and warms with a ridge.


Then the low out of WA will be moving eastwards with a decent plume of moisture, more rainfall is expected with this feature, widespread light to moderate totals are possible but we could see some better falls from the lower Eyre Peninsula through the Yorke Peninsula and into the Adelaide region down into the Upper Southeast.


The rain moves into NSW during Friday with a pair of follow up fronts to bring a windy and showery weekend for the southern coastal areas, with isolated light falls filtering through to inland areas as that flow becomes more westerly. Drier air will run over the inland through next week.


More fronts will begin to approach once again next week with more rainfall to come to finish the month, again impacting the same regions.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern is beginning to destabalise tonight with a front on the approach, we can see it in real time bringing a band of rain to the southern coastal areas. This was not as well picked by modelling with the moisture values a little deeper across the region. We can track that front through to the east by Wednesday, with a drier colder day on the way. Then the low comes through with areas of rain some moderate falls through Thursday before that moves on to the east by Friday. Following that, widespread showery and windy weather will develop as a front begins to move over the region followed by another during the weekend. So wet weather over the coastal areas of SA during the coming week. Next week we may see a break if GFS is to be believed but at this time the showers will stay coastal and the inland dry. There are some more dynamic weather systems being picked by the models as we get into the latter part of the month and to kick off August. This should be encouraging for those wanting more rainfall as we get closer to spring.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall has largely unchanged from this morning, some areas have exceeded these weekly totals just today, so we have to factor in the moisture profile this week as each system moves over the region, hence why I think there may be some surprise rainfall totals as we enter later this week and with the weekend systems. More moisture filters down next week ahead of more frontal weather, which could spark another round of inland rainfall chances from WA, if the systems can be in phase.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Rainfall associated with the westerly wind profile continues to impact the coastal areas and adjacent inland which has been forecast now for weeks in the medium term products here, and that is likely to persist into next week. That means areas that have seen rainfall over the past week likely to see more and those that have stayed mostly dry will continue to do so. That is traditional for this time of year. There is evidence that the frontal weather may approach quicker than what the GFS suggests. That would mean little break in the frontal onslaught to end the month.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Not much change in the overall rainfall presentation from the Euro tonight and even in the ensemble data there is not much difference at this time, however with moisture floating about next week and the possibility of the weekend system being stronger and further north, the rainfall totals could increase for southeast areas and western inland parts, so will keep an eye on the prognostics tomorrow and likely update my forecasts.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days

The rainfall forecasts remain largely unchanged with the frontal weather being confined to southern pats of the nation and this keeping the rainfall in tact over southern coastal areas and adjacent inland areas. Got to keep watch on that low pressure system rolling through the region on Thursday which may bring some better rainfall than what is being shown in modelling and even on my forecast charts. The weekend systems are unchanged through modelling tonight but they could be stronger as well. Then more weather approaches just outside of this 10 day forecast.

And for those in eastern SA, severe frosts may develop on Thursday morning with a cold airmass and high pressure moving over combining to bring a freeze to parts of NSW, but we could be on the western edge of the worst of it, but keep watch because a snap -3C morning can cause damage at this time of year to crops.


Frost Forecast for Thursday Morning.

More weather details to come.

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