FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - WET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE WEST AND SHOWERY WEATHER SOUTHEAST.

Updated: Jun 10

ANALYSIS

The pressure pattern is very slack at the moment and not much change from day to day in terms of weather conditions across the country. So, over the coming 2-3 days it is a bit like ground hog day. That makes it easy to remember the forecast. Take a look out the window, what you see is what you will get through to about Sunday.


Conditions start to shift a little from Monday and then more so from mid next week with the high-pressure belt that has been slowly meandering throughout the southern parts of the country. The weather slowly warming up over in the east over the next week, but we have some frosty mornings on the way.


In the west, showery weather to continue for the next week and the dry season shows up over the north of the country.


SHORT TERM

As mentioned throughout this week, it is a stagnant pressure pattern for the long weekend with similar weather forecast for the next 3 days.


It won't be until that large ridge moves over the southeast and eastern inland that we see conditions starting to improve over the southeast and east, but some cold nights are on the way with severe frosts (see below).


Also out west, the showery weather will continue along cold fronts that will be peaking through the region over the course of this week, that making it the wettest part of the country with drier weather most elsewhere.


From about mid next week, this is where we start to see the rainfall return to the southern and southeast states with weakening cold fronts beginning to knock high pressure further into the Tasman Sea.


LONG TERM

The chance of more moisture sweeping into the northwest and west of the country remains very high through the medium and longer range with the high pressure in the east moving out further east of NSW, allowing the westerly wind belt to rise and begin peaking over southern and southwest parts of the nation.


Moisture racing out of the Indian Ocean is somewhat expected to move into the frontal weather as that passes through from west to east, some chance of more widespread and moderate rainfall returning to the southern and southeast states.


If we see the polar and subtropical jets collide, then we may see more dynamic and severe weather developing.


AREAS TO WATCH

The SAM and whether that remains at negative values for a prolonged period, the longer it stays negative, the more rainfall for southern parts of the nation with Ag Areas getting follow up falls from WA, through SA into VIC and southern NSW.


The moisture running through the jet stream acting as the wild card feature throughout this period, ending June and into July.


WEATHER VIDEO AM - FRIDAY 10TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very lean over interior parts of the nation with many locations looking at a big bag of nothing which is normal for this time of year. Showers decreasing over the southeast inland across the weekend with wet weather remaining generally coastal for now. The wettest weather is forecast to be found in WA, especially over the SWLD and up and down the west coast to about the Pilbara. This is in response with the deeper moisture and frontal weather moving through. The moisture may sweep into SA and then into southeast Australia through the back half of next week. There may also be a few showers over the northern tropics as well, but mainly over QLD. Otherwise not much to talk about rainfall wise, for now.... but it will not last!

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are forecast to continue along a trough that is persisting about the coastal fringe, held in position by a low slowly approaching from the west. The trough will move inland during the day spreading the conditionally unstable air into the interior with the weakening cold front and low bringing the chance of thunderstorms later in the day for the coastal areas south of Lancelin. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

It is a low to moderate risk once again for flash flooding through the coastal areas of WA with some thunderstorms moving through at a moderate pace leading to decent accumulation in quick time.

Severe Weather Watch - Sunday to Monday

Another cold front approaching Sunday then passing through on Monday may produce some damaging wind gusts as that sequence unfolds across the coastal areas of the SWLD.

Riverine Flood Risk - This Week

Heavy rainfall in rounds moving from the Indian Ocean into the western interior may lead to areas of minor flooding by this time next week.

Frost Risk Expands Early Next Week

The frost risk becomes expansive this week and there is the risk of severe frosts developing over the weekend and next week, with the first period of freeze conditions (<-5C and below for more than 8hrs) as new high pressure sits over the ACT and remains slow moving leading to clear skies, light winds and well below average temperatures, which is normal for this time of year following significant periods of Winter weather. Individual forecast charts for each day of frost and freeze potential will be available as we get closer.

Much of the east to be impacted.

Much of inland QLD to be impacted in the short term and again early next week.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are forecast to continue over in the west but may lift a little further north with a trough moving northeast a little. Thunderstorms may deliver heavy rainfall that could trigger flash flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms early on Saturday over the western interior of WA will likely clear later in the day. A thundery shower or two persists over the far northern tropics but mainly through the Torres Strait Islands.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

The cold front approaching the SWLD of WA looks to move in a bit quicker so late thunderstorms possible for the southwest of the state during the afternoon.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms will move through the SWLD with a strong cold front, with the coverage decreasing the further east you go, with the trough and front sliding southeast as the low collapses south of the state.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms is forecast to be mainly in the Bight on Tuesday with a couple of these clipping the Eyre Peninsula.

MEDIUM TERM

June 16th-23rd 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies above the norm remains a higher chance over the SWLD where persistent frontal weather and deep moisture is forecast to linger through the region. Mainly seasonal values elsewhere as the weather from the west, comes into the south and southeast with that wetter bias likely to be observed over SA and VIC as well as pockets of NSW/ACT expected towards the end of the month.

Temperature Anomalies

I warned that the blue shading would be removed in the forecasts moving along this week for the medium term and a sharp shift back to warmer than normal weather is expected for large chunks of the nation as a broad northwesterly flow developing, pumping that warmer air from the northwest down into Central Australia and into the southeast and eastern inland.

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - NEGATIVE TO PHASE TO RESUME

The negative phase continues and will strengthen in the next week through to about the 24/25th of the month, leading to the westerly wind belt lifting northwards.


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DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more on the daily breakdown for the short and medium term, to compare against the GFS solution to see where things are heading over the coming 10-15 days.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The colder drier air over the southeast and eastern inland remains and that leads to the risk of local morning frosts most mornings for large sections of the eastern inland, the most severe of these developing through the latter part of the weekend and into next week. The west is where we find the deeper moisture profile with a lot of cloud, areas of rain and the chance of a few areas getting above average rainfall over the coming week, which for this time of year is not unusual. The moisture from the west will eventually spill eastwards as we track into the end of next week. For now, the moisture values over the tropics look stable, but the moisture levels will pick up as we track into the end of next week and the following weekend. The moisture sitting up over the Arafura Sea and into the Timor Sea is expected to bring the higher chances of widespread rainfall moving into the end of the month and July for northern and eastern parts of the nation. You do not have that moisture sitting there and not impacting the chances of rainfall with the upper level winds supporting that moisture moving south and east.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

I will have your 6-week outlook refresher, looking at the long range coming up from 1030am EST and a broader update this evening across the nation as we look into the long weekend and the short and medium term.



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