FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - THE WET FOCUS STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH - SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER SW WA.

Updated: Jul 8

OVERVIEW

The final portions of a trough moving through the southeast is expected to bring another burst of showers with moderate falls over VIC with some small hail and colder gusty southwest winds developing. Some light showers may make it into the southeast districts. Showers are forecast to develop along the NSW coast on the weekend with some moderate falls but that buzzes off during Sunday.


Out west we have a strong cold front to watch tomorrow that will bring the first decent slab of rainfall throughout the southwest of the nation which will be welcome after a dry spell. The weather over in the west will progress eastwards into SA and VIC while drier weather begins to take a foothold over northern and eastern areas of the nation.


SHORT TERM

So it is all about the developing cold front in the west and the departure of the low pressure over the east, with widespread falls spreading from west to east being the main weather feature to watch.


Drier weather is forecast to resume over northern and eastern areas of the nation for the coming week. The frontal weather coming through at times through the southern parts of the nation but below average impacts are expected overall.


LONG TERM

There are indications that the frontal weather may start to increase impacts over southern parts of the country while the northern and northwest of the nation starts to see higher moisture levels developing as the upper level northwest winds begin to drag in that influence from the elevated SSTs surrounding northern and northwest Australia.


There is a good indication that moisture will eventually fold into the frontal weather leading to more broad areas of rainfall developing across the country for the last week of the month.


AREAS TO WATCH

As above, the moisture over the interior through the end of the medium term is of interest as the evolution of the SAM phase and whether we see the sub-tropical jet and the polar jet connect through the latter part of the month to bring that widespread rainfall potential.


WEATHER VIDEO AM - FRIDAY 8TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

So, the rainfall bias has shifted back to the south of the nation with a few showers expected along the NSW coast over the coming 2 days but generally, the coverage more concentrated over southern areas thanks to the westerly wind belt. The westerly winds are expected to feature through much of next week. Frontal weather will begin to increase later in the period with the SWLD to get the best of it and then possibly over the southeast next weekend. Overall, the remainder of the nation north of the westerly wind belt is dry. So, enjoy that while it lasts in areas that need to be drier and hopefully the rainfall spread can pick up over the south through the next week which gives some relief to the Agricultural Areas.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

NIL THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FRIDAY

Dry air and stable conditions with below average temperatures for many locations meaning the forcing is not available for storms through Friday.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

A strong cold front passing through the SWLD on Saturday afternoon and evening may have a band of gusty storms attached to it with that then rolling over the inland areas during the evening. Storms may continue into Sunday along the southern WA coast as the front moves east.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms may develop further east on Sunday as a front moves east. Colder air behind the front may also have showers with thunder/hail associated with that about the southern coastal areas.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday to Wednesday

Nil Thunderstorms - the air is stable and cool across the nation and with dry air over northern parts of the country coupled with an upper ridge, cloud free skies for a while.

WEATHER ISSUES

Riverine Flood Risk This Week

The flooding will continue for a while in the absence of rainfall, with the major flooding expected to take a while to ease around the Central Coast. Some flooding is possible briefly over the Mid North Coast but that should ease quite quickly and head out to sea but inland areas will be dealing with large scale peaks in flooding for a while.

WEATHER WATCH

SEVERE WEATHER - DAMAGING WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT

This system is expected to bring some fairly high risks of damaging winds and moderate to heavy rainfall through the SWLD on Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms also producing damaging winds on the prefrontal trough over the inland as well from about Three Springs through Hyden to Esperance during Saturday PM.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

July 14th-21st 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Not much change from yesterday with this a period of benign weather generally across the nation. There is a deeper moisture profile building throughout the period from the 21st-29th of July which may see rainfall increasing over the nation as a whole and that may continue into August as well.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler than normal conditions appear to feature over northern Australia with the recovery from the colder weather of the past week still taking it's sweet time through the end of this period. There may be cloud forming as moisture deepens from northern and western Australia which could hamper the warming phase so that will be an element to watch if you are living through these areas. Warmer weather possibly in the west with a northwest flow as frontal weather continues to move through the SWLD during this period.

CLIMATE DRIVERS - SAM TENDS NEUTRAL.

Starting to see the members moving the needle towards a negative phase over the course of the back half of the month, but still within neutral tolerance, however this is a shift overnight from previous guidance where earlier we were looking at weak positive signals through to the end of the month, so fingers crossed we see this strengthen through the next week. This would help bring rainfall back into southern Australia and drier weather for the central and eastern areas of the nation.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The drier air is moving eastwards and northwards through NSW and QLD with a much more typical airmass for July settling in. The drier air over int he northwest which has been equally as anomalous, is set to mix out over the next week and that is thanks to frontal weather coming through southwest areas of WA. Otherwise, nothing incredible moisture wise through the next week, but noting that the moisture does deepen further offshore northwest and northern Australia during the medium term setting up the next weather maker of substance.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up today including a decent look at Spring 2022 with the video outlook and much more. That will replace the 6 week outlook today as I just want another lot of data to come through over the weekend before I update again next Tuesday.