FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - THE WEATHER RAMPING UP IN THE NORTH TODAY AND SLOWLY EASING IN THE EAST.

The weather dynamics remain very active through the short term for the east with further heavy overnight rainfall bringing more flooding. Some places along the coast have seen their wettest Summer in nearly 30 years which is incredible for NSW. SE QLD has seen a wet Summer but not as wet as that until this last event.


The wet weather in the east is forecast to settle down in the coming 24hrs but the showers and storms remain, the intensity of the rainfall more scattered.


For inland areas, still expecting to see showers and thunderstorms most afternoons and evenings with isolated heavy falls developing through the period over inland VIC, NSW, ACT and southern QLD.


Up north we have a trio of tropical lows, one to the west of Darwin more likely to cause some issues moving through the period ahead with a moderate risk of a coastal impact about the NT coast or a low risk about the WA coast. Overall a wet phase continuing with the monsoon over northern parts of the nation which will continue into the middle of March.


A middle level trough is still expected to pass through the moist air over the southeast inland from Sunday and that could see storm coverage increase and the intensity once again move to severe thresholds. That will be an event to watch.


Over in the west apart from a few showers and thunderstorms about the Southern Coastal areas, the weather largely expected to be dry and hot with an easterly flow. to continue.


Moisture from the tropical incursion over northern Australia is expected to drift south and east through the forecast period with some risk of severe weather developing for inland areas with heavy rainfall possibly moving southwards into Top End of Kimberly then the Interior.


Some models do develop another tropical low in the Indian Ocean before sweeping that feature to the southwest with more moisture spreading through WA and SA. So there are changes expected to the forecast packages moving forward. This includes the east which will also be impacted by the weather happening over northern Australia.


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Dominated by the tropical lows and the monsoon trough up north which may form into a cyclone near the NT and another near Cape York over the coming days which will lead to enhanced rainfall in these zones. Another tropical low may form off in the Indian Ocean which could lead to moisture streaming off that feature as we move into the medium term. Otherwise heavy rainfall continues for the east coast and storms with heavy rainfall for the eastern inland. That activity will ease over NSW and QLD, but increase for VIC and once again southern NSW and the ACT later Sunday through early next week. Some of the storms could once again produce scattered heavy falls. The weather will then move towards the east and clear during the by the end of the week ahead of a drier surge of weather via westerly winds over the Bight moving in. For the north, more rainfall and windy weather is expected with the monsoon throughout the outlook.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are expected to remain a feature on Friday over the eastern inland from mainly northern and eastern VIC, through NSW and the ACT up to inland QLD and through to the Top End. Dangerous flash flooding may develop along the east coast of NSW north of Sydney through to about Brisbane where a trough deepens and draws in very high moisture levels. Some areas could see 100-200mm in 24hrs in this zone, that zone to narrow as we get closer. Otherwise heavy rainfall with thunderstorms over the inland the most concerning element in NSW, the ACT and through inland QLD. With tropical lows drifting over northern parts of the nation, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is also possible.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms will likely retrograde back into the inland of NSW and increase over VIC and west of the ACT through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms carry the risk of damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Thunderstorms over the tropics, more widespread near a tropical low across the Top End driving heavy rainfall and gusty winds leading to flash flooding. There may be a few thunderstorms about the south coast of WA where another middle level disturbance deepens during the day.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

The tropics very active with a deep tropical low or two, possibly a cyclone over the NT bringing the risk of destructive wind gusts and flash flooding. Thunderstorms increasing through eastern SA but amplified through VIC and NSW/ACT with some of the storms likely severe with all modes of severe weather possible. Another trough may kick off another round of thunderstorms on the southern coast of WA during the afternoon and evening.

Tropical Cyclone Risk - NT

A tropical low is deepening and may form into a cyclone today. Refer to the BoM for official forecast tracks. But in terms of rainfall and moisture spread, this will be a big rain maker initially for the tropics but also spreading moisture throughout the nation from the NT through to WA then into Central Australia into the medium term. Further tropical lows may form through the week.

Tropical Cyclone Risk - QLD

Keep an eye on a low that has formed northeast of the Top End which is likely to move east over coming days leading to enhanced rainfall through north QLD during the weekend and next week before shooting offshore. Some models turn the tropical low south along the east coast next week, others keep it out to sea.

CLIMATE DRIVERS

Southern Annular Mode - Next 2 Weeks

SAM remaining positive through to next week but likely turning neutral/negative for a period but quickly turning positive again as we head into mid March so there is some chance that that signal shifting neutral may help to pull moisture out of the north and into the south of the nation ahead of troughs and fronts passing through the Southern Ocean. This will see a brief easing of the easterly winds and heavier rainfall for the east coast of QLD and NSW and a reduction in heatwave conditions moving into March for WA.

MJO - Next 2 Weeks

The MJO looking to move through slowly across northern Australia with the emergence of the MJO in recent days evident in the rainfall coverage over northern Australia. Also the development of tropical lows in recent days also a signal that the MJO is in the region. The wet weather likely to ramp up further during the coming week.

DATA - Refer to video for further information on the complex pattern with all the changes from overnight and today with the latest data analysis.


Euro 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The tropical system over the northwest remains the driving force for medium term rainfall opportunities nationally, but in the short term in could provide the coastal areas of the Top End near Darwin and down to about Kalumburu in WA a drenching before adopting a track. In the east, more heavy rainfall today, before that begins to ease now from tomorrow, the system in the upper levels slowed down with flooding risks persisting through the weekend. Another trough developing in the west will produce a few showers and thunderstorms. There is another trough expected to form over the southeast inland during Sunday into early next week producing widespread showers and thunderstorms with the chance of these being severe with all modes of severe weather. There is evidence more settled and drier weather developing from the west later next week into the weekend in response to the SAM tending neutral but the MJO will be still driving very heavy rainfall for parts of the north and below average temperatures. As mentioned, temperatures in WA should begin to ease in the coming week.

Euro 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

A very moist airmass will be in place for large parts of the north and east for the best part of the next week with active weather expected near low pressure and a higher chance of more widespread severe weather where the troughs develop. The north very humid with deep monsoonal air producing widespread rainfall and cloud cover. A drier shift can be seen from later next week with a westerly flow moving through southern Australia, it is still to be determined as to whether this can push out the humid air from the eastern inland.

Euro 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information about the rainfall distribution to contrast and compare with other models.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information about the rainfall distribution to contrast and compare with other models.

Euro 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to video for more information about the rainfall distribution to contrast and compare with other models.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information about the rainfall distribution to contrast and compare with other models.

More weather information including your 6 week outlook is coming up from later this morning.


As I am in a cyclone watch zone until I return early next week, there may be some delays in information coming through over the coming days but I am curating the forecasts as much as I can now and will post information out throughout the coming days.