FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - THE SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR VICTORIA AND EASES OVER THE EAST FOR NOW.

The weather elsewhere, quiet as a mouse away from the lingering rain and cloud cover through inland WA. Overall, the weather is likely to remain settled for much of WA, SA and western parts of NSW and QLD through the southern NT where a large upper ridge is in place. That has helped to erode Anika (which I think might be a blessing for the eastern states).


Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop for the far east of SA today, south of about Cockburn and then increase in coverage through southwest NSW and more prominently into western VIC before the thunderstorm activity turns severe and rainfall coverage becomes more widespread.


Rainfall rates could exceed 20mm an hour for several hours as thunderstorms decay as the band of weather moves through central and north central Victoria leading to flash flooding. Some areas have seen 50-100mm of rainfall this week so there are pockets that could see a renewed flash flood risk in these areas early Saturday.


Rain and thunderstorms will then move east through VIC and into southern NSW during Saturday and reaching the ACT and southeast NSW during the evening. Severe storms are possible ahead of the band of rain through southeast NSW and the ACT extending through the Southern and Central Tablelands. The weather could turn nasty in some spots with large hail and gusty winds as well along the divide.


During the weekend, drier southerly winds will move through SA and into VIC, with a cooler airmass being drawn in behind the upper low and high pressure coming in from the west. So drier air will work slowly east and north through next week, pushing the rainfall and thunderstorm activity northwards early next week.


Storms and showers will continue for northeast NSW and southeast QLD next week with severe weather possible. There is the chance of severe weather developing along the coast of NSW with the upper low wafting about but it is still too early to call but keep watch.


Tropical weather will start to increase next week as the moisture and the instability builds as we see the winds veer back into the east.


Lets take a look - and I am not actively ignoring WA, SA and the NT, the weather just does not change that much, so you can blame the high pressure ;)

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Starting to see the rainfall distribution moving into the coming week a little clearly now, the weather over the west of the nation is turning drier, thanks to an upper ridge in place. The remains of Anika will likely clear over the next 24hrs and we should see that gone by tomorrow off the charts. That will support the interior of the nation remaining dry for much of next week as we see a reset in synoptic scale. The east, one more severe weather event likely to unfold, heavy rainfall spreading through VIC this afternoon and this evening through Saturday. That upper low will spark severe storms through inland parts of NSW and ACT during Saturday and this extending into SE QLD on Sunday before the complex looks to clear off the coast by early next week. The tropical rainfall is forecast to remain at seasonal levels but the rainfall is likely to increase this week coming. The SAM tending neutral today will be felt next week across the nation before the signal shifts back into the positive range this time next week and that sets up another period of wet weather from mid month onwards. So overall once we get the wet weather out of the eastern inland next week, it should be a quieter week rainfall wise next week. That will make forecasting the next wave of rainfall into mid month a little easier and where that will likely be.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are forecast to contract into the east with the first system moving on by and weakening. Some storms may severe along the spine of the Great Dividing Range with heavy rainfall and squally winds possible. Thunderstorms also possible over the northern tropics with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main risk. The wild card upper low coming in to the southeast later in the day brings the chance of high impact severe weather, which at this stage is not being modelled well. I am drawing in the chance and flagging the risk on the basis that we have severe weather impacts to deal with now and not many areas can take another battering from severe weather.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected to contract east through VIC into the eastern third of NSW and southeast QLD as an upper trough and low migrates east. Dangerous thunderstorms along the dry line are possible north of the upper low through central and northeast NSW with all modes of severe weather possible including giant hail and destructive winds. The drier air limiting showers and thunderstorms over the tropics for this time of year with a broad ridge moving into the Bight.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are forecast to feature in the same location on Sunday as the trough in the east becomes stalled in the region. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is the main concern but also, the large hail and damaging winds risk. Some storms over northeast NSW into southeast QLD could turn dangerous with giant hail and destructive winds. The weather over the north seasonal, the coverage could become more widespread on Sunday with the air a little more unstable.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and model comparison with the GFS.


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The last in the sequence of upper lows is set to move through the east this weekend and into early next week with another ECL to form early next week off the NSW coast with further heavy rainfall and severe storms possible. The weather easing over the east from about Tuesday through the remainder of next week with a period of drier air and stable air moving in so I do think we will have a rest from the wild weather for the east. The weather over the tropics likely to see an increase in activity next week as humidity returns which will be welcome after a hot week. The remains of Anika now pushing through the central interior of WA will clear up overnight and into Saturday so dry weather resuming for much of inland WA and indeed much of the rest of the nation. You will find the rainfall on the periphery of an upper high placed over the centre of the nation next week so much quieter conditions expected. The models have been hinting at a major rainfall event developing in the medium term from about the 12/13th of March onwards as a response to the SAM turning positive again and this will lead to more wet weather for much of the nation I suspect, but rainfall could be introduced to areas that have missed out this week.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

You can see the humidity over the east during the coming 3-4 days but look at the southerly flow move in and flush out the humidity back to QLD and the tropics by mid next week. So a much more seasonal airmass for most of us by mid next week through next weekend. Quieter weather is on the way and a chance to dry out following the last ECL early in the new week. Drier weather and hot weather for the west to continue, warm to hot in SA and mild to warm weather for the southeast. The humidity is kicked back to the tropics where it belongs through the outlook

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information - you can see the shift in the weather from mid month.

More information coming up on the 6 week outlook later this morning and a national wrap this afternoon. I will be travelling this afternoon on assignment to Central West NSW.




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