FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - THE SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST.

It is a slow journey nationally to lose the severe weather across southeast and western parts of Australia, with low pressure systems continuing to produce some wild weather in terms of strong winds and heavy rainfall potential as well.


The low out west will begin to ease in the coming day or two with the system expected to wash out and be captured by a weak trough and front leading to a drier westerly change to filter through the west and south of the state clearing the high humidity which has brought some quite incredible March rainfall following a near rain free Summer for many.


Out east, strong winds and heavy surf continues with a large low pressure system deepening over the Tasman Sea. The system is expected to move parallel to the coast and become slow moving offshore before possibly adopting a southwest to westerly track into Saturday which could spawn a burst of nasty weather for the SE of NSW and E Gippsland. At this stage this forecast remains fairly low to moderate confidence but it is important to put the risk out there.


For the remainder of the nation it is pretty smooth sailing for the best part of 10 days coming up. Areas of interest to watch will be the developing tropical low/cyclone over the Coral Sea next week, that system is unlikely to move towards the coast.


We could see further moisture spread north of Australia next week too which could increase rainfall chances later next week for coastal areas of the NT.


The next decent change across the nation looks to be from around the 10-11th of April.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain low over inland areas of the country with the chance of meaningful rainfall still sitting below 5% at this time during the outlook. Rainfall will be allocated to the coast in the east and some of that could be heavy about areas south of Ulladulla in NSW through to Mirboo North in Victoria. The rainfall easing by Sunday. We could see some showers and storms Sunday afternoon through areas over NE NSW and SE QLD with these potentially severe with a few heavy falls as the trough moves out again. The northern tropics likely to see the driest week since last October with a nice dry airmass surging north. For the west, widespread showers and thunderstorms today with locally heavy falls about the Gascoyne and Pilbara will continue to move south along the coast and ease during Saturday before clearing Sunday. Next week most areas looking dry away from the far northern tropics and eastern coastal areas with the regime more typical of mid Autumn dominated by high pressure, representing the period of transition for the nation is underway.

SHORT TERM CLIMATE DRIVERS

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - SOUTHERN OCEAN - CONTINUES TO BE NEUTRAL FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.

The neutral SAM is likely to continue for the coming week with minimal influence expected for the nation at this time. This will set up a more stable period for southern and eastern Australia and allow high pressure to take up residence.

MJO - TROPICS - NOW LIKLEY TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE MOVING THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

No impact from the MJO is likely in the coming 2 weeks and it's position closer to the equator means it may be north of the nation until we get to later this year.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THIS WEEK

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

The large high in the Bight will start to break down the storm risk for much of the nation with stable drier and cooler air throughout many areas. The remains of the moisture plume landing over the west coast could give way to a few strong storms, some with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. A few thunderstorms also over the north with the usual afternoon and evening activity and there may be a coastal clap of thunder with outer bands of the low pressure sitting in the Tasman Sea for NSW.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms contracting northwards through the tropical areas with a southeasterly change moving towards the Base of the Top End. The west coast of WA could see a few showers and thunderstorms with a weak trough in the region. Some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds and heavy rainfall about. The dynamics not as impressive for heavy rainfall leading to flooding at this time. There may be a thunderstorm about the far southeast with the approach of the low from the east in VIC and southeast NSW.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible about the west of the nation with a weakening trough and moist airmass moving eastwards. There may be a tongue of instability forming in association with the low pressure system moving west bound over the southeast of the nation that could kick off storms trough southern QLD or northern NSW during the late afternoon or evening. Some of these storms could be severe but confidence is too low to draw out just yet. Isolated thunderstorms over the north isolated.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are likely in isolated coverage over the northern tropics during the afternoon and evening. A moderate chance of thunderstorms returning near a trough once again during the day over southern QLD and into northern NSW. Severe weather is also possible with this trough.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

A low chance of a thunderstorm or two over the far north of the nation during the afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather Watch - Friday through Sunday

There may be some severe weather issues about the southeast of NSW relating to strong to gale force winds and high seas, but now adding a moderate risk of flash and riverine flooding if the low moves westbound in the coming days. So be on alert in the region

Severe Weather Watch - Thursday through Saturday

A trough a deepening low pressure system offshore Exmouth is expected to move due south in the coming days, leading to a sharp increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall could also develop with that leading to pockets of flash flooding through the region. Some areas are saturated after a wet week and this will lead to heavy rainfall pooling very quickly in wet areas. A low chance of disruption to travel.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - April 7th-14th 2022


Moisture Watch

Moisture remains hard to find for inland areas through this time so the drier picture should continue for much of the nation as a whole. We should start to see moisture roll through the northern waters of the country with a tropical wave moving west. The onshore winds may also produce low moisture through QLD and over parts of NSW with some light falls, moderate over the tropics. Moisture coming through the jet stream from the Indian Ocean may hold the key to the drier pattern breaking down through this period with increasing falls over the southwest and possibly western interior of WA. That may have some chance of linking up with troughs or frontal weather mid month.

Rainfall Anomalies

Even though it is a drier picture it does fall within seasonal expectations for this time of year. The drier spell is part of the transition process and should not prove to be the start of a drought, rather than a movement away from warm season conditions and rainfall distribution to the cooler season and the cooler distribution of rainfall. The sub tropical ridge moving over the south of the nation is a part of the process and should actually be an alert to those watching the patterns that the heat is behind us until about October/November.

Temperature Anomalies

Above average temperatures are forecast to feature through this period with a large and stagnant area of high pressure leading to days of sunshine, warming the land and the airmass and this will see most areas over the period remaining in above average temperatures. No searing heat is forecast at this time, but will keep watch, but be advised that conditions will continue to transition out of the cooler than normal weather being experienced right now.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern is dominated largely by the high pressure system to the west of SA and the low pressure in the east of NSW that is moving into the high, so that is strengthening the gradient winds across the region with dry cold air surging through the southeast, the airmass modifying as it heads further north, but the drier air clearing out a lot of humidity. Now as we get to Saturday, a deep low will waft close to the South Coast of NSW with severe weather risks from damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding in some locations. Over the interior of QLD and into northern NSW, a trough will amplify in response to the low moving in from the east through the southeast and a batch of strong to severe storms may develop Sunday into Monday at this stage. Across the west, heavy rainfall continues at the moment for the west of the Central West and Gascoyne Districts and more storms are forecast to develop in and around the western coast and adjacent inland from Exmouth through to the Southern Coastal areas. This will begin to clear over the weekend. For the remainder of next week generally quiet and dry for many of us, there may be an increase in a few showers at times over parts of the east and southeast but it is a conditional risk for inland areas for VIC and NSW through southern QLD, it is more likely to feature about coastal regions. Watching the tropical wave building later next week for the northern tropics, which could bring back some wet weather too and some hints of a developing change for the west and south of the nation as we get to the end of the period.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The moisture content is decreasing in the coming days but hanging on for parts of the east coast and very far northeast tropics, while easing over the western interior as heights come up through the atmosphere. For the remainder of this week, dry weather is forecast to persist about southern, central and southeast inland parts of the nation while the west will be dealing with drier lower levels (moisture will be continuing to feed in the upper levels via the jetstream so expect some cloud cover from time to time). Over the tropics, a nice flush of dry air passing through with conditions starting to transition. But moisture will return later in the period. Over the eastern inland, there is some chance moisture might be drawn back in over parts of NSW later next week and possibly southern QLD in response to the brief positive phase in the SAM this weekend and into early next week being played out.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up later this morning with a look at a refreshed 6 week outlook and anything major to report in the longer term guidance will be reported in there. Another National Update due this afternoon and a look at the severe weather risks still ongoing for parts of the nation.


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