The promised drier weather from the models last week is verifying quite nicely over the southern 2/3rds of the nation with a good supply of southerly winds working around the southeast and east of the nation as high pressure ridges through.

The break in the persistent positive SAM phase is the main contributor, the brief neutral phase is evidenced in the long wave that passed through during mid week, but it is short lived. The SAM will move back to positive next week, so make the most of the drier, more settled weather as it will come to an end again over eastern Australia before spreading west through central Australia from mid month.

Tropical weather is where the main action is, a stalled monsoon trough will lead to heavy drenching rainfall for the next 5 days. The trough is also forecast to strengthen in the next 10 days with the MJO rotating around the north of the nation, this acting to increase the risk of tropical rainfall and thundery heavy falls. It may also support the development of tropical depressions as well, enhancing rainfall and leading to below average temperatures.

The run of dry weather over the remainder of the nation looks to continue for 7 days which will be welcome but make the most of it.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

The cleanout of the moisture from the east and south continues and that means rainfall is becoming more lean in the coming week for many areas of southern and eastern inland areas of the nation. The northern tropics is where you will find the heaviest of the rainfall over the coming week, with the monsoon trough stalling through the region before it washes out. Tropical lows are also a chance of forming over the coming week with the chance of enhanced rainfall for some regions so that will be an area to watch. Moisture may begin to creep up over western parts of the nation with favourable upper level winds dragging in that tropical air from the north and the east coast will see light to moderate showers following the rain band over QLD. The southeast winds will ease mid next week. Overall, the week ahead is much drier and much more settled.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will continue to move north through the nation as a nice refreshing dry airmass surges north, helped along by a new ridging through southern Australia. Thunderstorms on the trough in Central QLD could be dangerous during Friday afternoon with all modes of severe weather including giant hail and destructive winds with intense rainfall. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall over the remainder of the tropics may lead to flash flooding and tree damage.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms will continue to contract to the far north, basically the northern third of the nation likely to see showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy falls expected over parts of the northern Top End and across Cape York. Perhaps some elevated thunderstorms over the western interior during the afternoon and evening. The rest of the nation under a ridge and dry stable air.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms will remain in the same locations for Sunday as well with the pressure pattern very slack and unlikely to change a great deal this week. Storms may be heavy with flash flooding over the tropics. Storms may be gusty inland of the west coast over WA with the trough lingering about the west coast.

Tropical Depression Watch This Week

The monsoon trough is expected to set up camp over the Kimberly, through Top End and lay over Cape York during the coming week and there is a high to very high chance of further tropical lows to form, which may enhance rainfall chances. There is increasing evidence the area around the Top End may have some tropical weather increasing through the weekend which may get organised offshore the west or north coast through next week.

DATA - Refer to video for more details on the short and medium term break down on the GFS.

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern is settling down, with most of southern and central Australia entering into drier and more stable air for the coming 4-5 days leading to cooler nights, warm and sunny days and light winds. The weather over the east coast will remain cloudy with onshore winds and showers from time to time with below average temperatures. Over in the west, a cooler change should move through during the early part of Monday bringing the chance of a few showers and storms but the coolest air in a month or two. The tropics are expected to remain very wet with the monsoon trough moving north and then stalling out over the weekend and remaining in the region of the Top End and Cape York during next week. This is a good chance to dry out and complete tasks if you have any outdoor chores to do!

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The drier air is now dominating the nation with that air remaining in place for the weekend and next week. The moisture with higher rainfall chances can be found over the north and northeast of the nation on and north of a trough are passing upwards. The moisture will continue to move northwards before increasing over in the northwest and west of the nation towards the end of the run as the pattern resets and rainfall chances begin to increase again for the second half of February.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z GFS- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z GFS- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

The latest longer term forecast is due out this morning so look out for that - critically important now we have the wet phase behind us for now and a much clearer picture of how we are looking ending Summer and entering Autumn.

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