FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - STORMY CHANGE OUT WEST. CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WARMER WEEKEND!

ANALYSIS

A strong cold front is set to move through the southwest of the country today with a broad band of rain and thunderstorms set to deliver the highest rainfall nationally.


The rest of the nation, settled under high pressure and drier air with a good-looking day expected for many. Along the coast some cloud may begin to increase this afternoon and the end of the drier days are set to come to an end this weekend.


SHORT TERM

Not a whole lot of change to the short-term guidance with the strong cold front passing through the SWLD today with strong winds and widespread rainfall developing today. This system is expected to move into the Bight during the early part of next week and is becoming slow moving thanks to the block over the Tasman Sea.


Once that block pattern moves off, we should start to see the system advance over the southeast with a low forecast to form on the front bringing widespread rainfall to the southeast and eastern inland but position of the low dictates who gets what.


The rest of the nation looks to see settled weather for now, though moisture along the northern tropical coast could see showery weather increase this time next week into the following weekend.


A follow up cold front is forecast to approach the southeast of the nation from this time next week as well, with further light to moderate rainfall possible.


LONG TERM

A moderate chance of a rain event developing with an upper trough passing through the eastern inland, tapping into moisture streaming southwards from the tropics, leading to widespread rainfall developing over the northeast areas of QLD which may begin to shift south, but other models have this all occurring along the east coast of QLD and offshore. So, the forecast confidence remains low.


Another strong cold front is expected to approach the SWLD of WA through next weekend and another towards the end of the month with further rainfall chances and moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean.


AREAS TO WATCH

All eyes on the SAM phase and whether it can stay negative throughout the remainder of the month, and what impact this will have on the westerly wind belt to the south of the nation and whether we see more frequent and heavier rainfall with a colder shift.


The northern tropics should dry out towards the end of the month, but the period from the 23rd-28th is of interest for the NT, QLD and possibly northern SA and NSW.


WEATHER VIDEO AM - FRIDAY 17TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall guide has continued to evolve over the past 24 hours and the models are still messy this morning for the southeast and east of the nation with a complex pattern, so understand the forecast confidence remains frustratingly low. The higher confidence in rainfall forecasting is out west, with widespread showers and storms today and a cold and showery weekend to follow a front with further moderate rainfall. A band of cloud and rain over the Gascoyne and Pilbara extending southeast and east into the interior will continue before easing from tomorrow afternoon. Then we have to watch the developing rainfall potential over the northern tropics later next week and whether we see a significant rain event unfold over the normally dry season parts of the country or this falls offshore QLD.

WEATHER ISSUES

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and behind a front passing through the west and south of WA during Friday morning with the chance of some heavy rainfall and damaging winds with thunderstorms. The main concern is the damaging wind risk with the wind profiles supportive of 100km/h wind gusts. Showers with hail and thunder to follow behind the main rain band with the chance of further strong squalls.

Damaging Wind Risk Friday

Strong upper-level winds are likely to be mixed down to the surface via broad areas of rain and thunderstorms passing through the west and south coast of WA during Friday morning. Following the front, strong to gale force westerly winds are forecast to continue with high wind squalls via showers and hail in the cold airmass. This risk may be extended further east during the afternoon updates.

Severe Weather Watch - Friday into Saturday

Strong and gusty winds developing over the SWLD of WA ahead and with the passage of the cold front pushing eastwards on Saturday with damaging winds possible up to 110km/h. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the cold front with strong and squally winds possible as well, but timing might save many of you, if the system passes through in the overnight hours, this will reduce the instability levels and lessen the risk.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms become more widespread over the SWLD and along the west coast with the approach and passage of the strong cold front with damaging winds a chance with storms over the SWLD.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Showers with local hail and thunder over the SWLD following a strong cold front with damaging winds possible. Some chance of a thundery shower over the far northern parts of Cape York and a thunderstorm dancing offshore the NSW coast, may approach the coastal fringe.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Generally, storm free across the nation, though there may be some storms offshore southern WA and through the Torres Strait and about 50km offshore the NSW coast with a trough.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are possible with the trough and low-pressure system pushing through the southeast, but no severe weather is expected at this time, though forecast confidence is low on the developing system over SA and VIC next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

A trough and low moving through the southeast inland may produce further showers and thunderstorms over the inland with local hail possible in a cold airmass but no severe weather is expected at this time.

MEDIUM TERM

June 23rd-30th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Once again, low confidence in the forecasts into the end of the month and a lot of the rainfall forecasts are very low confidence for northern and eastern areas with the upper trough passing through. The rainfall over the south of the nation is at seasonal values with frontal weather passing through.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler bias strengthening for parts of the eastern inland once again with a cold pool of air riding behind a cold front later next week then sitting over the eastern interior, continuing to buck the trend of climate models that were suggesting somewhat warmer conditions than what we have observed in the east. Seasonal temperatures out west but the warmer weather over the northwest will continue with dry air

CLIMATE DRIVERS

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - REMAINING SHARPLY NEGATIVE FOR A WHILE.

The SAM will remain negative for the next week with some rumblings of it tending back toward neutral values towards the end of the month but overall, the whole sequence from the climate drivers is poor and this occurs in June/July.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video, the medium term forecast as advised will remain a hot mess for the east and southeast, the GFS has the system, and the Euro does not have that major system, so the dance continues!

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The PW values are unchanged from yesterday with the areas to watch over the south with the moisture drifting through during the coming week, and how that impacts the system evolving through SA and into the southeast early Monday and then through Wednesday. The moisture north of the nation also playing havoc with the models in the medium term as I have been talking about with the confidence poor on the impact that moisture will have in relation to troughing over the nation's north and northeast. So, watch this space.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up today including a look at the next 6 weeks and a broad video update this afternoon as we head into the weekend!