FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - RAIN INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH HEAVY FALLS. DRIER WEST.

OVERVIEW

Rain has become more extensive through the past 12hrs with moderate falls about the interior of QLD and showers increasing over parts of QLD and along the east coast near an upper low. The weather is forecast to remain wet in the QLD and NSW region for the next 4 days while the rest of the nation remains settled.


Cooler than normal weather over the northern interior is expected to continue into next week with below average temperatures expected to remain in place for many areas, leading to a suppression of the warming up of the country ahead of cold front next week.


Frontal weather is expected to return to west of the nation from next week, the stronger systems approaching the SWLD during later next week into the weekend.


SHORT TERM

It is all about the rain event over the north and the east, with more details in the video on the evolution of this system. There is some chance that the rain event may stall over the eastern seaboard from QLD into northern NSW with a sharp upper trough over the eastern inland with widespread falls continuing.


A deep low is likely to form on the trough offshore QLD and another to form on the southern branch of the trough offshore NSW during the weekend and the location of these and their passage spreading southwards will determine the spread of heavy rainfall. So stay close to the forecast as these meso scale systems are very tricky to pin down and can cause significant issues.


LONG TERM

The east of the nation is expected to see widespread rainfall through early next week with the weather forecast to ease as the system lifts into the Tasman and Coral Seas with higher pressure coming into the dry out the east.


That opens the door for frontal weather to return to the west of the nation leading to widespread showers about the SWLD with mainly light falls, but as each front passes through during the latter part of the week into the weekend, the rainfall will become heavier as we go, but mainly for southern and southwest areas of the state.


Drier weather for much of the interior with ridging in control, that will push the frontal weather further south and mean the impacts of the weather in WA could be muted over in SA and VIC due to the ridging.


AREAS TO WATCH

Spoke about the Indian Ocean yesterday, the dipole is developing and it should begin to have some influence over the nation as we move through July.


The SAM is expected to turn more negative as we move into July, and this is supporting the frontal weather heading northwards through the Southern Ocean towards Australia.


WEATHER VIDEO AM - FRIDAY 1ST OF JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has increased overnight as expected in response to the trough over QLD being invigorated by the deep upper low over NSW, strengthening the wind profile and bringing down the moisture from the north into the unstable air. So expecting widespread rainfall to continue over QLD today and NSW into this evening and throughout the weekend with heavier rainfall developing under the upper low throughout the inland and along the coast in onshore winds. This pattern continues into Sunday. The rain over interior QLD should contract to the coast by Sunday afternoon with heavy rainfall ongoing and into early next week. If we see low pressure systems developing along the trough this will enhance rainfall along the coast from Mackay down to Narooma. So watch the forecasts closely if you are living in this region. Otherwise, the rest of the nation is dry and quiet with high pressure dominating. We should see the pattern flip with the high moving east during the middle of the week before showers return over southern WA with frontal weather coming in from the west with these not particularly strong. One front coming through on Monday over the SWLD could bring some moderate falls but it will be brief. Rainfall will then run across southern and southeast areas of the nation with frontal weather passing through but in a weakening phase, thanks to the ridge beating down the westerly wind belt.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

There is an ongoing risk of thunderstorms under a broad rain band not severe weather is likely and the cloud cover will mitigate that risk with the storms if they form, mainly elevated.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

A broad upper low and deepening moisture profile could see thunderstorms develop along the east coast and the adjacent inland but conditions clearing from the western interior of QLD. Heavy rainfall with isolated thunderstorms is possible about the coastal areas.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorm risk forecast to contract to the coast with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main issues for pockets of the QLD and NSW coastal areas.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms along the coast of QLD and NSW with a deep trough and potential low-pressure system, could deliver heavy rainfall leading to flash and riverine flooding. Stable most elsewhere.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are still possible in the presence of an upper trough near the QLD coast from Mackay southwards and through the NSW border down to the Hunter. A low-pressure system offshore the NSW coast could also bring storms further south of Sydney as well but the confidence of that is quite poor.

WEATHER ISSUES

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH - QLD

The risk zone for severe weather is unchanged from overnight with the trough over the interior driving up the chance of moderate to heavy rainfall and the coverage of that heavy rainfall could see riverine flooding develop. Also with the high rainfall rates, flash flooding is also a risk. The risk of riverine flooding is highest along the QLD coast from the Mackay region southwards to about the Sunshine Coast at this time. The focus of the riverine flooding builds later in the weekend into early next week along the coast.

RIVERINE FLOOD RISK - QLD

A low risk of riverine flooding for the inland and a moderate to high chance along some of the coastal catchments in response to heavy rainfall developing near a stationary trough from the weekend and into next week.

FLASH FLOOD RISK - QLD

Pockets of heavy rainfall is expected to feature along a sharp surface trough combining with deep moisture and this is leading to widespread rain but embedded in that will be some heavier convection leading to those locally intense rainfall rates. A moderate to high risk of this unfolding throughout the interior during Friday through Saturday and along the coast from Saturday through Tuesday. Clearance of the severe weather risk dependent on the movement of the trough to the east which remains up for debate looking at modelling this morning.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH - NSW

An upper low that is forming over SA today is forecast to move into the NSW on Thursday and remain slow moving over the interior from Friday and into the weekend, leading to showers over the inland. But the upper low will help to draw in deep moisture from the north and east with a trough forming along the coast. It will be this trough that increases the risk of severe weather over parts of the NSW coast from Friday and then persisting through the weekend with the risk of high impact flash flooding with the slow-moving areas of heavy rainfall near the coast and then damaging winds developing in the presence of a surface low during the latter part of the weekend and into early next week. Also watching the heavy rainfall threat spilling south from QLD into northeast NSW later in the weekend and heavy rainfall in pockets under the upper low over the inland.

RIVERINE FLOOD RISK - NSW

A moderate to high risk of riverine flooding developing once again along the coast from Narooma northwards with a few pockets where the risk is higher in relation to the topography and shape of the coast and how the trough/low pressure behaves and sets up. Understand that this forecast is a heads up and the risk zones will become more refined as we move forward through the days ahead, but we could see conditions supportive of flooding emerge from Friday night onwards through the weekend and into early next week.

FLASH FLOOD RISK - NSW

Flash flooding is a high risk at this stage, could easily lift it to very high chance over parts of the coast from Wollongong to Narooma with a trough on Friday night into Saturday and over the Northern Rivers and then extending up and down the coast this weekend into early next week. A low risk at the moment under an upper low over the inland, particularly Central West during Saturday and Sunday with slow moving areas of rainfall, this may extend towards the Southern Tablelands and Southwest Slopes and ACT, placement of the upper low key. While it has been drier the past 2 weeks or so, be aware that it won't take much to get the runoff going again.

MEDIUM TERM

July 8th - July 15th, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Relatively seasonal conditions forecast across most of the nation, though there are some increasing signals on the modelling, some quite aggressive, for rainfall being above average over the southeast and south of the country and possibly about the southwest. I would like to see more modelling on board for the higher rainfall chances to be extended into SA and NSW but right now I am not convinced of it.

Temperature Anomalies

There has been a shift towards a cooler bias across the nation in recent days and while I am seeing that colder bias, I am not confident on it being as cold as models suggest so keeping things milder over the east and southeast, cooler over the north and northwest and across western parts of the nation.

CLIMATE DRIVERS - SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - SECONDARY POSITIVE PEAK TO COME.

A secondary peak of the SAM this weekend is expected to reinforce the easterly pattern and rainfall bias over northern and eastern Australia before the wet weather eases as the SAM retreats to neutral values later next week. The drier bias under this solution can be found over southern and western Australia during this time of year under such circumstances.


DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for the latest info on the severe weather threat for the east and where the low-pressure systems could be going and for when the pattern flips for the south.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Moisture is largely unchanged in the distribution throughout the north and east of the country where we see excessive moisture loads being drawn into upper troughs and an upper low over NSW. This will be the focus for widespread rainfall through the weekend and into next week before clearing mid-week. Still seeing the pattern shift and a return to westerly winds with moisture streaming through the westerly wind belt from this time next week with rainfall chances coming up for WA then the southern parts of the country with showery weather developing in the areas where it should be raining at this time of year where the northern and eastern parts of the country turn drier.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up from 11am EST with a look at the Climate for the remainder of Winter 2022, a first glance at that with more information surrounding the severe weather potential in the days ahead also to be available this afternoon ahead of the broader update from 5pm EST.