FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - RAIN EASING OVER THE EASTERN INLAND. SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE SOUTH.

Updated: 6 days ago

OVERVIEW

A major rainfall event is winding down over the eastern interior as the upper level trough weakens and the moisture plume lifts northwards. A strong low south of SA now dictates the focus of widespread wet weather for today and through the weekend as that snakes through to the Bass Strait region before heading east of Victoria during Monday.


A period of showery days will assist in bringing further welcome rainfall to Agricultural Areas of SA and into VIC while the rainfall will be able to settle down for much of NSW though showers return from the weekend, it will not be anything widespread or heavy.


A period of southerly winds may bring showery weather to areas of drier southeast NSW which will be brief, but welcome after a dry few weeks, but at this time of year, it is normal to be drier in these areas.


A stronger cold front will mover towards SWLD of WA during Sunday and then push into the Bight followed by a stronger system Tuesday that looks to bring a very high chance of showers and rainfall pushing over WA then into SA from mid next week and then into the southeast and eastern inland to end next week.


SHORT TERM

We need to lose the current system over the southeast to clear off before we get better clarity of the next system moving into SA. So until then, you will not see a great degree of fluctuation in modelling on all your apps. Without any guidance from an expert you are charting next week at your own peril as planning off computer data alone is going to be fraught with danger.


Overall the pattern becomes a lot clearer as we move into the back half of the weekend.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

Looking further a field, and the low that brings the wet weather to southern Australia once again next week clears off towards the southeast and eastern inland of the country. With the SAM tending positive possibly, there is the chance of a southeast to easterly flow pattern to emerge in response to this bring showery weather back to the east coast of the country.


Out west, there is enough vigour in the westerly wind belt offshore the region to see cold fronts moving into the state with further showery period. Moisture as highlighted throughout today’s many video updates is expected to remain elevated leading to o widespread rainfall chances spreading in from the west once again as we move into mid month.


With moisture lingering over the ast in the onshore easterly wind regime, there is some chance that we may see moisture converge over SA, VIC and inland NSW where values once again become very high, leading to higher rainfall chances again. This would be from mid-month onwards for the end of the month too, but it is time to start watching that and making appropriate preparation for follow up rainfall, which could be anomalous.


Given the north of the nation remains above normal in terms of temperatures so early in the season, this airmass will be propelled southwards into the cold air and if we see moisture get involved again, then a wild weather system like the one now in the east could be repeated before too long.


WEATHER VIDEO AM - FRIDAY 5TH AUGUST 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is extensive over parts of the eastern interior this morning but that should begin to thin out later today. A wave of cold fronts and troughs moving around a deep low pressure system near SA and into VIC. The showery weather could be heavier than what modelling is showing for parts of SA and VIC. Showers and storms will continue through the weekend over the southeast inland before the air dries and warms and we see conditions clear. Showers return to the southwest of the country with moderate falls developing. The second front that passes through during Monday will bring the highest chance of rainfall and pull-down moisture over the eastern border of WA, this setting up the potentially productive rainfall event for SA. A low is forecast to form somewhere in the Bight as all the ingredients are in place for widespread rainfall to form, but the coverage and intensity from one location to the next will remain up in the air for another 2 days. Showers may develop over the southeast and eastern areas with moderate rainfall chances returning to inland areas. A positive SAM phase may unfold from later next week for a brief period, leading to showery weather developing along sections of the east coast.

WEATHER ISSUES

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms continuing along the clash zone where the cooler drier air is meeting the warm moist air with the jet stream winds, some damaging winds gusts are possible with storms, but the risk is low. There may be some scattered thunder early in the morning and to about dawn along the southern coastal areas of VIC and SA and in the afternoon over the southeast inland west of the ACT. Severe weather not expected but strong winds will be occurring during this time.

FORECAST CHARTS

August 11th-18th 2022

Moisture Watch

Moisture is expected to sweep through the southeast inland with the broad low passing through the southeast inland of the nation. There will be moisture running north through the northern tropics, but a dry southeasterly surge may win out mid to late next week before we see winds shift into the northeast again dragging in elevated values. Moisture spreading through the Indian Ocean could spread south and southeast into the western parts of the nation ahead of another strong cold front leading to widespread rainfall chances returning to WA which keeps the filling season going.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies remain elevated in the east and that is a placement mark for the potential for a return of a low into the region and then deepening offshore leading to southeasterly winds and showers for the east coast and inland rainfall transitioning through SA and NSW as well as VIC, possibly southern QLD, this area of wet weather moving eastwards. Rainfall out west also starting to increase as we see frontal weather increasing in strength from mid-month and tapping into the moisture surging southwards into the frontal weather passing through.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are heavily dependent upon the evolution of the low pressure passing out of SA into the southeast inland of the nation during the latter part of next week into the following weekend and then popping offshore the east coast. The near record values over the Top End and northwest Kimberly continue but the airmass drier as southeasterly winds return for a period. Seasonal conditions generally out west overall, with the fluctuation in temperatures throughout the period thanks to the frontal weather passing through the westerly wind belt.

CLIMATE DRIVERS - SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - NEGATIVE

The SAM is lifting out of the negative SAM which will spawn the next cold front out west later in the weekend and then you will find that the system will cut off into a low-pressure system and spawn rainfall into eastern and southeastern inland next week with that system moving eastwards. Neutral SAM forecast to resume mid next week.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more information and the model comparison and context with the severe weather winding down but we are now looking at the next wave of systems next week.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The moisture is now starting to be kicked northwards through NSW into QLD and the NT as the low-pressure complex over the southeast moves further to the east and propels a drier southwesterly flow into the southeast and eastern inland. So, we are seeing the rainfall rates coming down as a result throughout today across the nation. Over the southwest, the air is dry and more stable leading to fine and more settled conditions. The next surge of moisture coming through the northern interior turns southwards early next week ahead of a pair of strong cold fronts and is still likely to move southwards and southeastwards into SA and VIC/NSW mid next week with the next belt of rainfall and further moisture is likely to linger over the east and redevelop out west again with the next waves of low pressure.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

I will have a look at the outlook for September and October later this morning and thankfully the weather has settled down a tad so more on that during the day as well, here and on the Facebook page.