FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - PATCHY RAIN AND MILD WEATHER EAST. COLD BLAST STILL ON THE CARDS.

Updated: May 27

The showers continue over the southeast and eastern inland of the country continues with a warm soupy airmass still in place as a result of the persistent easterly winds and a weak trough in the vicinity. There have been a few moderate falls of rain over northeast VIC and southern inland NSW, with this activity on to the east this afternoon and evening before clearing offshore.


Over the remainder of the nation, it is looking fairly settled today with general ridge of high-pressure dominating.


The other area of interest is the developing cloud band over northwest WA which is increasing in coverage in the next few days. An upper trough is forecast to clash with moisture driving southeast of Indonesia and this is set to bring areas of heavy rainfall for some locations over the Pilbara, Gascoyne and even the Kimberly.


A cold blast is set to move through the Bight from Sunday, and the orientation of the system is something that has been changing shape in recent days and the forward speed of the system is also expected to become quite challenging to pin down. But the principal is the same, rain spreading west to east across Southern Australia with a colder shift expected following a mild weekend.


Severe weather issues still remain for the southeast states with damaging winds, Winter weather issues likely and moderate rainfall which will be welcome for many areas that have missed out. While the southeast cops the wet and cold showery weather, the east coast dries out in this scenario which too will be welcome.


The colder drier air will spread throughout the nation during next week as the flow pattern relaxes over the southeast.


While this is ongoing, the wet weather continues to build over the northwest of the nation with areas of rain with thunderstorms and moderate to heavy falls possible. There is the chance of severe weather unfolding with this feature along the coastal areas for Central WA. But how much of this moisture moves eastwards remains to be seen, so do expect further changes to any follow up rainfall chances for southern and southeast parts of the nation (hence why I have not been drawing it in on my charts just yet).


Plenty of weather to look at over the next week. Now I am travelling this morning to QLD to meet some of our wonderful subscribers, so next video is this afternoon when I hit Sugarcane country.


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is ongoing this morning in clumps over NSW, nearby the ACT and northeast VIC. This patchy rainfall will continue to slowly move eastwards today with the odd moderate fall about with the chance of local thunder. The remainder of the nation looks fairly settled with conditions forecast to remain dry. There may be a few late showers over the southeast coastal areas of SA and into southwest WA with a weak front this evening and that may continue into Saturday. Over the northwest, areas of rain and windy weather developing with a deepening trough with the chance of heavy falls about the immediate coast but much of that could still stay offshore but certainly a heads up for potential heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. That rainfall persists into next week. A strong cold front and blast of cold air is forecast to surge north during Saturday and approach the coast of WA and SA from Sunday with some moisture coming into the system seeing a prefrontal rain band develop over SA, then into VIC and NSW later Sunday and persisting into Monday. Moderate to heavy falls are possible about the southeast inland. Further moderate rainfall in showery southwest gales is possible in those areas exposed to this wind bearing. Conditions dry out from mid-week in the southeast, remain dry throughout the east coast next week, but rainfall may begin to develop over the SWLD with the next front. That could tap into moisture from the northwest of the state, and this looks to spread further rainfall chances into SA and the southeast inland during next weekend.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Cool stable air spreading through the nation leading to a very low risk of thunderstorms over all areas. There may be a clap of thunder over southeast NSW with some of the showers but very isolated.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Stable air and ridging keeping things settled nationwide on Saturday, thunderstorms may begin to make landfall over the Central coast of WA with heavy rainfall impacting the islands offshore.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible along a cold front that is spreading through SA and into VIC and then the southeast during the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are possible with thunderstorms as is small hail.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

A vigorous southwest to westerly airstream with troughs embedded within the flow is forecast to dominate the southeast inland. Damaging winds and small hail with thunderstorms are forecast to be the major issues for the region. A leading band of thundery showers with strong winds over northern NSW into southern QLD will clear early. Storms may develop over the far northwest with a trough deepening along the coast. Some heavy rainfall is possible but mainly offshore at this time.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Stable weather moving from west to east over the southeast inland with the showers, local hail and thunder decreasing. A lurking trough offshore WA will continue to trigger thunderstorms, mainly offshore, but a few of these may impact land before weakening as they move further east.

SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds - Sunday to Wednesday

With the system rolling into well above average temperatures with some moisture, this will allow a very tight thermal gradient developing, with supports strong to gale force northerly winds developing ahead of the feature. So, expect to see land gale warnings for parts of SA, VIC and NSW through to the ACT and across much of TAS.

Farmers and Graziers - Sunday to Wednesday

Once the front passes through, we will see a fierce cold airmass with gale force westerly winds over much of the southeast. Widespread showers, hail and thunder is forecast and snowfalls down to low levels.

Snow Forecast - Monday to Wednesday

Snowfalls are still expected to develop through this period but the airmass is marginally warmer in recent modelling, but this will continue to be updated to reflect the snowfall potential over the southeast so expect some more changes to this as we move forward.

Frost Risk - Tuesday through Friday

The airmass begins to warm from this time next week with the new high-pressure ridge moving through, but we have to be on the watch for severe frosts developing over the southeast. Certainly, looking at the coldest mornings of the year for these areas. Possibly a freeze for parts of the ACT and points south towards the VIC border (temperatures sustained below -5C)

Severe Weather Watch - Heavy Rainfall

Rainfall may become heavy over the coming days with a deep trough linking into moisture streaming into the nation. Widespread rainfall is forecast once again over the same region that copped heavy rainfall earlier this month. Be weather aware and make sure you have arrangements if you are travelling on remote roads.

Frost Risk - Monday to Wednesday

Severe frosts are possible about the southern inland of WA during the early part of the week while the southeast is being lashed by the gales and showery cold airmass.

MEDIUM TERM

June 2nd-9th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Not much change in the guide with generally seasonal rainfall for most areas of the nation. The main area of above average rainfall potential runs along the jet stream through the western and central interior but here, you only need 5-10mm to see well above average rainfall at this time of year. Showery weather over the southern Ag Areas could tip the balance of rainfall spread into the above average range for some parts of southern and southeast Australia but the risk is marginal.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to remain below average for a fair chunk of the nation but more likely to be well below average over the Northwest of WA where persistent cloud and rainfall ongoing with troughing offshore looks to keep things cooler than normal. A fast flow pattern should be ongoing over southern Australia leading to bursts of showery weather over southern Australia and westerly winds. Some moderation of the temperatures over northern areas is expected with the southeasterly surges moving through regularly.

DRIVERS

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - NEGATIVE PHASE CONTINUES

The negative phase continues for atleast the next week and that will be reflected with more cold fronts drifting through from west to east through southern Australia. This will support drier weather developing over the east coast and throughout the tropics with the flow pattern spreading the drier air around the nation.


DATA - Refer to the video this evening for more information and context behind the data sets and forecast information.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The overall trend in modelling is not that different from last night in the short term, but where the modelling is struggling is over the medium term, what happens post the cold outbreak over the nation’s southeast? There is some chance of moisture continuing to pool over northwest Australia with a significant period of cloud to continue, maybe a reduction in rainfall amounts but for the meantime the moisture runs more active through the jet stream. Can that moisture spread into the frontal weather spreading from west to east across the south of the country leading to more cloud bands and rainfall chances?



00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is forecast to remain fairly limited over the southwest with onshore winds and high pressure in the region, but just to the north of the Ag Areas in WA, we have very deep moisture supply in place leading to widespread rainfall and above average rainfall at that with a deep trough sitting offshore the coast. Over the southeast, there will be a moist airmass today that gives way to a few showers and maybe a clap of thunder but that should move eastwards, the air modifying and warming up over the weekend ahead of the strong cold front that lurches from the Southern Ocean. This will bring a nice pop of cold dry air over the southeast and then moving north across the country with a southwest to southerly flow. Another shot of moisture is forecast to develop in the upper level westerly winds via the Indian Ocean leading to more above average rainfall chances as mentioned at the top of the page running through WA. The east coast and much of QLD through the NT looks to pick up a nice period of dry weather.




00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

The latest GFS has significant rainfall spreading through the country over the coming fortnight and that is no real change to the guidance with active weather forecast to persist for southern areas with regular rainfall and we will likely see those cloud bands sweeping the nation near constantly through the coming week to ten days, reaching the east later in this viewing period.


00Z Euro- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Euro also supportive of the GFS in showing that there is significant rainfall and moisture spreading through the country from east to west, starting on Sunday and this setting up a wetter phase for southern Australia. How much of this then translates into rainfall coming out of the tropics remains to be seen but there is a significant amount of moisture to work with ahead of any cold front - the Euro this morning seeing this more than the other models



00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

CMC now finally well aligned with the other models leading to more rainfall spreading from west to east across the nation with some heavier falls back over in WA and through the southeast of the country with moderate falls developing on a more regular basis with cold fronts, the southwest could see rainfall return from later in this period with the next long wave which this model suggests could be just outside of the window. The connection between the moisture and the cold fronts remains to be seen.


00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Further widespread moisture impacts from the Indian Ocean spreading southeast through the nation is likely ahead of cold fronts that will bring more regular rainfall back across the country from west to east. Some areas from inland WA, through Central Australia and into the eastern inland could see excessive rainfall potential for this time of year.


More coming up today with your 6-week outlook due soon and a broader update this evening. Have a great day.








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