FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - COLD START SOUTHEAST INLAND. RAIN INCREASING QLD AND WA IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

The question that many of you in SA, VIC and NSW want answered is how much of this moisture from QLD and from WA comes through during next week and do we see elevated rainfall chances to finish the month, bringing relief to farmers screaming for rainfall, but on the other hand, problematic falls for those areas screaming for dry weather?


We have seen in recent weeks the shift in rainfall distribution, to include more rainfall chances coming through the jet stream, with deeper moisture spreading from west to east across the country. Some of this moisture has come through the upper level wind fields over Central Australia and today will converge with moisture coming in via easterly winds and a trough in the region is forecast to take advantage of that moisture with showers increasing and the chance of thunderstorms later tonight, heavy rainfall tomorrow, heavy showers Sunday then easing Monday. So a wet weekend for the east coast.


A strong high sitting over parts of the southeast near Tasmania, is forecast to adopt a near stationary position through the weekend and into early next week, leading to a great weekend for many areas. That high is helping to keep the east coast wet with showery periods for the record. Also, we could see moisture drawn into the northern inland of NSW and southern inland of QLD via these winds to see a few showers and thunderstorms develop. On the western flank of the high, a warmer northeast flow will develop over western VIC and SA.


The high being stationary, like a brick wall, will deflect the cold fronts to the southeast and away from the mainland. But these fronts, one on Sunday and another during Tuesday, widespread rain will be featuring over WA. Severe weather is possible with thunderstorms producing damaging winds later Sunday into Monday. The second feature could bring heavy rainfall and a flood risk over the interior of WA, especially areas that were hit hard by the rain earlier this week.


Eventually, the long wave bringing the wet weather and below average temperatures to the west will sweep east and bring rainfall chances up from later next week through SA, and into the southeast states with colder weather developing after a warm week over the southeast into the first week of Winter.


The dry season southeast winds should propel some more comfortable weather through the entire tropical north from next week.


Let's take a look.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall increases over eastern QLD today with onshore winds feeding the trough and moisture coming in via the jet stream from WA converging, leading to increasing showers tonight and then areas of rain with locally heavy falls developing Saturday. Widespread rainfall along the entire east coast with moderate falls down to Sydney and up to Cairns and lighter falls down to the VIC border. There may be some moisture spill over the Great Dividing Ranges during the weekend with scattered showers and the odd thunderstorm for southern QLD and northern NSW. As we move throughout the rest of the nation, generally dry until you hit inland WA. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop with an inland trough amplifying ahead of a strong cold front that will bring a band of rain later Sunday through Monday across the west. The rainfall is forecast to weaken as it moves through to the Bight with the high holding strong over the south and southeast. Showers along the east coast should continue but likely decreasing as the onshore flow turns more northeasterly. The next front through WA could pack quite the punch with another band of rain developing for the interior with that severe weather risk from the Pilbara and points southeast. A separate band of rain along the front will move through the SWLD with moderate falls and a colder shift. This system holds better potential to spread rainfall across SA and then into the southeast inland with moderate falls quite likely on current guides. With the winds shifting into the northwest across the nation, the warm weather will be accompanied by a drier spell for much of the east with some luck, east of the divide, but wet weather will capture those on and west of the divide, mainly through NSW at this time.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are possible near a developing trough along the east coast of QLD between Hervey Bay and Townsville. Some thunderstorms may produce some moderate falls of rain, but no severe weather is expected. An odd thundery shower or two over the central inland of WA is possible with a lingering upper-level trough.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible about the far east coast of QLD between Mackay and Hervey Bay during the day and there is the chance of thundery showers over western NSW and into southwest QLD and eastern SA. There is also the chance of thundery showers developing over the western interior during the afternoon and evening with severe weather not expected at this time.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible the west with a developing cold front offshore and a trough inland deepening and utilising the left-over moisture so the showers and thunderstorms across the western interior from Saturday should continue into Sunday. Low to moderate chance of severe weather for now with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main concern. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible about the Tristate in the east and along the QLD coast during the morning with the departing upper trough.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms from Sunday will continue into Monday over the eastern parts of WA before weakening and heading into the Bight during the afternoon and clearing. A low-pressure system passing close to the SWLD could bring damaging winds and gusty storms if it is close enough to the region.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to appear along a weakening trough and front moving through the Bight with potential for a strong wind gust and moderate rainfall. Another front clipping the southwest of WA could bring showers and late thunder to the region.

Severe Weather Watch - Flash and Riverine Flooding Saturday to Sunday

A brief but fairly dynamic period of weather is forecast to produce scattered heavy rainfall totals leading to flash and riverine flooding as deep moisture is lifted to full potential. Rainfall rates which could support flash flooding of saturated catchments will place remote and rural communities under threat from further inundation following flooding last weekend. The risk should peak during Saturday and into Sunday before the rain breaks to showers during the day on Sunday. Residual flooding is possible into early next week. Remain weather aware if you live in the yellow zone.

Severe Weather Watch - Storms this weekend with damaging wind threat.

Inland areas could see scattered thunderstorms developing overnight Saturday into Sunday with a pressure trough deepening as a cold front approaches the west coast. Strong and gusty winds with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall is possible. Damaging winds with thunderstorms over the SWLD are also possible with showers and thunderstorms moving along the coast with the front, which may be followed by a period of gales with the low-pressure system attached rolling through the Capes. Conditions ease later Monday.

Frost Risk Forecast - Thursday through Saturday

Frost Risk Forecast Friday and Saturday Mornings

The higher humidity that looks to be drawn across the southeast inland may offset the severity of frost across the regions during the morning and therefore mornings may not be as cold as what we saw today throughout the southeast. Frosts could be a little crunchier through the ACT and south to Cooma.

MEDIUM TERM

May 26th-June 10th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are forecast to be quite elevated across the northwest of the nation and this spreading southeast via the jet stream in advance of an eastward moving long wave trough south of SA, this taking the wet weather throughout the southeast. Rainfall expectations at seasonal levels most elsewhere.

As we move into Winter, the rainfall should continue to evolve along the jet stream with the higher chance of above average rainfall through the northwest of the nation and extending southeast once again along the jet stream and into the southeast. Some well above average rainfall near the northwest coast of WA is likely. Some showery winds with above average falls for June over Cape York are possible.

Temperature Anomalies

The warm end to the month for the east and north extending to the east coast continue to strengthen on the signals. The colder bias over the northwest a very high chance of occurring under thick cloud and colder westerly winds and rainfall moving through. The amplification of the pattern representing the temperature spread across the nation, which could support severe weather across the country.

The cooler bias following the strong cold front and rainfall event moving through the southern third of the nation will send a large plume of southerly winds through the country during the first week of June, with further rainfall developing out west with another cold front, cooler than average weather continues for the western interior. Warmer weather with elevated humidity looks reasonable over the tropics.

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - TURNING NEUTRAL

This is a much better signal for the southern parts of the nation and could result in more frontal weather emerging across the charts. Jet stream could become a little wavier, and the east coast looking drier.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Starting to get a little better agreement on the pattern in the outlook period with the behaviour of the high looking more consistent across the agencies at the moment, blocking the westerly wind pattern for a period, meaning wet weather peaks in the west and weakens over the Bight, but ahead of each system, warm and breezy with a northwesterly flow developing next week. On the northern and eastern side of the high, easterly winds are bringing showers and thunder to the coastal areas from this weekend and into next week. Heavy rainfall later today with the upper trough near the Wide Bay, will move away Sunday. The next strong front may approach the western parts of the nation during Sunday night with widespread showers and thunder develops. A band of cloud developing along the jet stream could lead to widespread inland rainfall emerging and running into the west of SA next week. A follow up cold front is forecast to sweep southwest parts of WA with colder air surging behind this feature from Tuesday, it is likely this system will be able to move into the south and southeast later next week with a band of rain and colder shift to finish the month. The timing, scale, and spread of rainfall and colder air is remaining up in the air with this becoming clearer by Sunday.


12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Not much change from last night with the moisture folding over the nation from the west, north and east, enveloping the southern and southeast of the nation throughout the week ahead, this leading to widespread rainfall moving from west to east along cold fronts. Showers along the east coast in the deeper onshore flow could continue into next week with that moisture being drawn into the eastern inland, merging with the moisture out of the west, leading to widespread rainfall moving through inland areas of the east ahead of the cold front sweeping the southeast. Drier colder air over the southwest of the nation leading to below average temperatures are forecast to sweep through to the central and eastern areas of the nation at the end of the period, this drier air surging north to bring another lovely southeast surge to the tropics. The east coast should also see some drier air filtering through in a westerly flow with th frontal weather returning.


12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up today including an update on the 6-week outlook, with the latest information to supplement Tuesday's information. And a broader update coming up this afternoon for the week ahead across the nation! Have a good Friday.

109 views0 comments