FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER - COLD RAIN OVER THE EAST, COLD OUTBREAK SOUTHEAST AND HUMID OVER THE NORTH.

The Winter weather is certainly active over the southeast where we still have a long wave trough slowly moving through the Southern Ocean which is helping to push up cold fronts which is producing gusty winds and showery periods and nice early season snowfalls over Alpine Areas. Let's hope that bucks the trends of modelling suggesting a poor season overall.


The first in a series of cold fronts is forecast to move through the southeast inland during Friday with this feature, as it approaches the southeast, whipping up the moisture over the eastern inland, so a band of rainfall is forecast to expand in size in relation to the cold front passing through SA today.


Moderate cold rain is forecast for the northern third of NSW and the southern third of QLD today with the band oriented from northwest to southeast, so if you are under the band, you may see falls of 10-30mm today, heaviest over the Northern Tablelands in NSW.


All of the rainfall should clear by tonight in the west and the east coast during Saturday morning.


Over the southeast we will see strengthening northerly winds, a cold day with thickening cloud and showers developing ahead of a cold front, with the system sliding through VIC tonight and into eastern Bass Strait during Saturday. A second, stronger cold front will pass through the Southern Ocean on Saturday and start to approach SA during Saturday afternoon with a heavier band of cold and squally rain moving through. This may reach VIC during the evening into Sunday.


A broken band of showers will move into southern NSW and the ACT Sunday morning before the system moves east. Following the cold front, a showery cold airmass with local hail and thunder will continue. The cold and wintry weather persists into early next week before easing occurs over SA from Tuesday and the southeast states from later next week.


Out west during this time, the weather settled, stable and boring, with colder nights and mostly fine days. The next rainfall chances are expected to approach from the Indian Ocean during mid next week as moisture spreads through from Indonesia into the jet stream. An upper trough may interact with the moisture leading to the next rainfall event commencing from later next week and into the following weekend.


The overall confidence on the system impacting large parts of WA is low and the confidence won't improve until Sunday PM.


Northern tropics enjoying higher humidity than normal for the dry season with ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms, with above average rainfall chances remaining high.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be focussed through the eastern inland today, mainly impacting northern NSW and southern QLD with the rainfall spreading to the east tonight and clearing on Saturday. A set of cold fronts is forecast to bring showery weather over the southeast states, but the heaviest front is likely to be Saturday into Sunday. The rainfall then contracts into the southeast gradually with clearance from NSW and SA by mid next week and then over the southeast generally, conditions should dry out from next weekend, so a long duration onshore flow will lead to cold and damp weather over the southeast. Out west, the larger rainfall event of interest is forecast over the northwest of WA with that moisture expected to shift further southeast later next week, but how much rainfall develops in response to a trough approaching the west coast will come down to the placement of a high-pressure system that is setting up over the Bight through next week (which brings the showery weather to the southeast). This high if closer to the west, will mean that the rainfall is deflected off the coast generally, resulting in dry weather for much of Ag WA. But if the high is more progressive, it will open the door for further rainfall developing along the west coast and this spreading inland. Further above average rainfall is possible over northern areas and once we lose the rainfall over the eastern inland of the nation, conditions should turn dry for a while.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are possible over the western NT and eastern areas of WA as a trough moves throughout the northern parts of WA. A cold front moving into the Bight may bring a thunderstorm to the West Coast and Eyre Peninsula of SA behind a rain band. A thundery shower may also develop about far northern areas of Cape York

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

A near stationary trough over WA and the NT will keep the chance of thunderstorms going, but the coverage is expected to wind down a bit. The chance of a thunderstorm continues for areas over northern areas of Cape York and about the Tiwi Islands and Coburg Peninsula. A few thunderstorms may clip the coastal areas of the southeast later in the day with a weak trough.

Thunderstorms Forecast Sunday

A cold front moving through the southeast could bring showers, local hail and thunder with strong and gusty winds. Over the northern tropics, the southeasterly surge is forecast to move through the area leading to storms contracting northwards during the day.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Showers and cold winds over the southeast with an upper-level trough working through may produce well below average temperatures. A weak trough in the morning may produce a few storms with hail. The northern tropics drying out, but a few residual thundery showers are possible about the far northwest Top End and over Cape York with a weak disturbance nearby.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are still possible over the southeast with another cold front clipping the region, leading to small hail and gusty winds. Further afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the norther tropics during the afternoon in advance of drier air surging northwards.

WEATHER ISSUES

Farmers and Graziers - This Weekend and may persist into next week.

The cold and windy weather will continue for large areas of the southeast for the coming week, but we have got a pair of strong cold fronts expected to move through leading to all the elements available, leading to dangerous conditions for stock exposed to these wintry winds and showers. The risk will contract further south into VIC and TAS next week with conditions improving over NSW, though remaining cold.

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

A strong cold front passing through the southeast will see damaging wind gusts developing ahead, with and behind the feature as it rolls through late Saturday through Sunday and into Monday. The risk will contract into Victoria during Sunday afternoon with a mass of cold showery air persisting into Monday. Strong gradient winds will reach the NSW Alpine areas and bounce off the Great Dividing Range and impact areas to the west of Sydney and Wollongong. The winds ease from Tuesday next week.

Snowline - Sunday through early next week.

Noting that the coldest air will be peaking over the southeast from Sunday to about Tuesday before we see conditions starting to improve over NSW and the atmosphere should begin to warm over VIC and TAS later next week. The weather is forecast to become drier as we go through the week across the inland, so even though there may be colder air, there may be no precipitation available to produce snow, with that staying back into VIC and TAS.

Frost Forecast This Weekend

A low chance of light frost Saturday and Sunday morning for some in the southwest inland, though with cloud lingering, the risk is forecast to be mitigated from this.

MEDIUM TERM

June 9th-16th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall anomalies are increasing for much of the west of the nation, once again in line with the developing trough offshore the west coast and the chance for widespread rainfall to develop over the central and northern interior areas of WA. Some of this could drift into the northern tropics and then spreading southeast into the Central Interior. Near seasonal expectations are foreacst elsewhere.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler bias across the nation is expected to continue for the first half of this month and this is thanks to the persistent southerly flow over the eastern and southeast parts of the nation, being propelled along the northern face of high pressure and in combination with cloud drifting through the jet stream. Some moderation in the cooler weather over the southwest is possible towards the end of the run.

CLIMATE DRIVERS

Southern Annular Mode - Neutral then tending Negative

The SAM is sitting in neutral values, and while we are seeing frontal weather this weekend and into next week, this is following the negative phase from a few days ago. Another more protracted negative phase could be on the cards from mid-month sending frontal weather back over Southern Australia and helping to spread moisture throughout the nation via the jet stream.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The fast flow pattern over the nation is forecast to continue with the first in a series of cold fronts pushing through the south and southeast today followed by a number through the weekend and into next week. The inland of the east will become wet today ahead of the lead front with moderate falls developing later today or tonight. Another shot of showers and storms will be ongoing today and through the weekend for WA and NT. Another stronger cold front moves through the southeast on Sunday into Monday and this may spawn another cloud band over the interior through to the east with light falls generally. Fine weather in the west for the next few days before we see an increase in moisture running along the western parts of the country. As mentioned over and over again better guidance and clarity of this event will be heading our way from Sunday night. So, expect more changes to the guide.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Not much change from last night but pointing out the obvious being the moisture running through the jet stream from WA, through the NT and into QLD and NSW multiple times in the short term, setting up a few cloud bands and rain periods. The moisture then resets over WA as the high in the Bight moves over the southeast with the next rainfall event likely to develop through western parts of that state. Also, watch the moisture building north of the nation where convection will be ongoing leading to elevated rainfall chances for dry season. Note the airmass over the south is cold and dry, but you can pick out the frontal weather passing through the westerly wind regime. So, showers will be featuring but seasonal rainfall expectations for now.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more information

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up today including a look at the next 6 weeks and a broader update expected this afternoon across the country as we approach the weekend.