The weather looking more like February, with temperatures set to return above average for many inland locations with dry sunny skies and light northeast to northwesterly winds.

For eastern areas of NSW and QLD, a southeasterly change working north through the region today as high pressure ridges over the southeast, will bring mainly light showers and low cloud and a cooler shift. A few thundery showers about the eastern face of the Great Dividing Range is also possible as the wind change works over elevated terrain.

No severe weather is expected in the central and eastern parts of the nation.

Different story out west, the most active weather for the coming 2 days likely to be over in the western and central interior of WA. Thunderstorms in recent days have packed a punch with flash flooding and that risk continues today, extending southwards towards the Goldfields, Wheatbelt and through to Southern Coastal areas. Some areas could see a month's worth of rain in quick time. The weather likely to bypass Perth and the far southwest.

The tropics remain very much below average in terms of rainfall and thunderstorm coverage but the temperatures are moving above average with an upper high moving across the region and setting up camp for a while.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains fairly light on over the nation for the coming week as mentioned through most of this week, dry air, sinking air motion and a suppressing upper high over Central and Eastern Australia. This will lead to below average rainfall. The dry air and upper high also suppressing rainfall over the tropics as well. The wettest weather you will find over the southwest and west of the nation with showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy through the coming few days as a trough deepens. Southeast winds developing from today with a few showers developing along the coast with light falls for the most part. Trade winds are likely to bring in more widespread falls for the QLD coast north of Mackay with those winds freshening next week. Later next week there may be a more robust change passing through the southeast of the nation with more showers and cooler conditions. Overall, no major severe weather events expected, away from the severe thunderstorms over the northwest.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will continue to extend across large areas of inland WA and make it towards the southern central and coastal areas. Some of the storms could be gusty and heavy over inland areas and that risk extends back up to the Pilbara and Gascoyne. Over the tropics, more showers and storms, but they are more scattered in coverage. with many areas staying dry A few showers and thunderstorms over the east of the nation with one or two moderate falls as an easterly change moves up the NSW coast.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms will continue through southern, central and northwest WA where storms have a high chance of turning severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The storm coverage will begin to contract eastwards during the afternoon as a trough collects the moisture and moves eastwards. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms over parts of northeast NSW and southeast QLD near a weak trough and wind convergence. Scattered thunderstorms possibly during the afternoon and evening over the NT and FNQ.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms begin to contract back to the northwest of the nation on the western face of a large upper high sitting over Central Australia and north of a ridge south of WA. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding possible over the Outback. Stable air returns to the eastern inland with the onshore southeasters over QLD shifting the storm risk back to the western side of Cape York. A wave of instability over the north may flare up storms over the Top End during Sunday.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The models have really been quite poor in modelling anything beyond about a week, and we have seen that most of this week. That does continue. The Euro showing a large scale system yesterday passing through the southeast mid next week, now shows nothing, as promised that system would be removed from the charts. That is a symptom of that low confidence forecasting. The drivers guiding the forecast are quite volatile so keeping the forecast simple and general over the coming week is best, drier weather to continue for large areas of the nation, with light falls over the east, moderate falls over the very far north with thunderstorms (even there the weather below average) and the heaviest of the rainfall will be found over the northwest and western interior of WA where a trough digs in. Some chance that the pattern flips later this month.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The very dry airmass continues over the north and northeast through the eastern inland and down through the southeast inland. The more humid weather is still likely to be found over the very far north and northwest with widespread showers and thunderstorms found here.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

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12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to video for more information

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

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12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to video for more information

The latest on the climate outlook for the next 6 weeks coming up and it is quite telling data today taking us through the remainder of Summer and all of March, so look out for that.