Hi everyone, I am travelling this morning back to the rainy southeast and in the meantime as I am out of action for a few hours this morning transiting across the country these are the areas to watch as we move through the weekend and into next week.

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is continuing to contract eastwards through QLD and NSW with some chance of further moderate to heavy falls this morning before the band begins to clear the inland the ACT and the coast later today. It has been a very wet week for the east and many areas will be happy to see it dry out. In the west, welcome heavy rainfall has moved through to the east with the falls becoming lighter as we move along towards the SA border. The rain band is falling apart as the front weakens and hits the large high and upper low in the east. It will help to push the rain out of the east, but the cost to the system is that the rain band coming into SA falls apart, so sadly, not much rainfall is expected with this feature through SA. Another front may clip the southwest during Friday afternoon and this system will cross the southeast during Sunday with a few showers. The east may see a few showers, but mainly over northeast NSW and southeast QLD during the weekend into next week. Some storms are also possible about Central Coastal QLD. Next week, the west looks to turn unsettled again with a deeper moisture plume feeding a trough over the region seeing another rain band develop. In the east, more moisture likely to move back over inland areas of QLD into NSW and this could start to drop some moderate rainfall later next week as a trough deepens in the region. For SA and VIC, watching the WA event very closely to see if it can pass through at pace with some rainfall next weekend, but confidence is not especially high. Further rainfall events are still being shown in the medium term over northwest, central and southeast/eastern areas of the country.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms with a departing trough or low could produce very heavy rainfall along the Wide Bay and Southeast QLD coasts with dangerous flash flooding possible. Rainfall rates of 100mm/hr are possible on current projections. A few thunderstorms are possible on a cloud band lingering over northwest WA. A thunderstorm or two possible about the northwest Top End during the morning.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible under a middle level cloud band over interior WA with mainly light falls. Thunderstorms amongst scattered showers approaching the coast in onshore winds near a weak trough could produce moderate falls. A stray storm is possible in the afternoon over the Northwest Top End but more likely over the Tiwi Islands and Coburg Peninsula.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are forecast to continue near a weak trough over Central QLD and about the coast with moderate rainfall, but no severe weather is expected.

MEDIUM TERM - May 19th-26th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Not much deviation from the previous update with the rainfall now expected to run through the jet stream but the highest impacts are forecast up over northwest inland WA and over the eastern inland of QLD through northern NSW. There may be some light to moderate rainfall running through northern SA, but it could bypass the Ag Areas where it is needed. Drier weather back over the north of the nation. The forecast confidence of the Indian Ocean making more of an impact across the country is currently moderate.

Temperature Anomalies

Not much change from yesterday with a warmer and more humid trend for the north and east with the positive SAM likely to propel moisture west across the nation. Cooler bias continues over in the west with the persistent cloud cover and rainfall potential ongoing via the jet stream.


Euro 12Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pattern is starting to wind down thankfully in the east with rain heavy this morning but likely easing by this evening and inland areas are mostly dry today. That includes much of NSW and VIC as the airmass starts to warm and dry out a little ahead of a front that is moving through SA today bringing light falls. Sadly the system just has had a rough time entering the Bight with the block in the Tasman stubborn, but it has moved it along but the result is a weaker system with dribbles. The showers in the west should clear tonight too with a drier airmass moving through. Above average rainfall in the west will be a feature through the coming days and weeks ahead I suspect, as more jet stream moisture is drawn into troughs through western interior. So another rainfall event, mainly north of the Ag areas at this stage, can be expected next week. In the east, showers and thunder may continue through the weekend into next week with a trough lingering, this trough moves inland next week and once again deepens. This could form yet another band of rain and thunderstorms for inland QLD and NSW with above average rainfall potential. SA may look to be sitting between these two systems at the moment, but the overall pattern does look a tad more mobile so some of that moisture in WA will make it through I suspect.

Euro 12Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Moisture levels are coming way down over the southern areas of the nation thanks to the drier westerly winds moving through. This will be along and to the north of the long wave passing south of SA today and VIC tomorrow with that drier air filtering into southern NSW during Sunday. The moisture that has been responsible for the very humid weather is expected to linger through QLD and back along the jet stream into WA, with rainfall and cloud cover to persist in these areas throughout the period. Once a new high moves over Tasmania next week it does two things. 1, it opens the door for more moisture to stream southeast into WA leading to more widespread rainfall chances emerging and 2, it pushes the easterly winds back over much QLD and NSW, this pumping moisture deep inland through these states. We have low pressure troughs in place in these regions with the moisture so further above average rainfall is likely.

Euro 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

I won’t rabbit on too much about the rainfall here, the chances are highest over northwest Australia next week with the new jet stream cloud band developing near a trough and over inland QLD and NSW where we have a deep trough and moisture combining to produce widespread rainfall in these states. The rainfall from WA offers the best chances for wet weather to return to SA at this time and then into the southeast states while the east coast system looks to stay there at the moment next week. So further above average rainfall is likely in the outlook once again

I will have further details coming up this evening, including the next weather video to set the agenda for the week ahead and a climate refresher as well attached to that. So more to come this afternoon when I get back home. Have a great morning.

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