FRIDAY EVENING WEATHER WRAP - THE DRY WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL SHIFT AT THE END OF MONTH

The weather remains very quiet for many this weekend and through to mid to late next week with a large scale upper high over the interior. The weather likely warming up to very hot levels across the interior and extend into the southeast and eastern inland of the country next week.


A slow moving trough will be supporting the hot weather over inland areas, but providing coastal areas a southeast to easterly shallow change so temperatures come down for parts of southern VIC and SA.


All the action rainfall and storm wise will stay out over the northwest and west of the nation with a deep trough and moisture supply combining to continue the above average rainfall over the Outback. The peak of the activity comes tomorrow and through Saturday before the action retreats north as a new ridge slides over southern WA.


Over the tropics, remarkably quiet for this time of year with hot and humid weather and only a few isolated storm clusters providing relief. The weather remaining quiet right through next week as the MJO stays out over the Indian Ocean and dry air gets propelled through the easterly winds leading to below average rainfall.


The SAM is likely to remain negative through the weekend and into next week meaning not much change to the overall pattern expected until the westerly winds retreat south again and the high pressure drops south.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall numbers have been bumped up over the northwest and west of the nation and more so over the northern parts of QLD where a trough is lingering offshore producing heavy showers in combination with the trade winds. The weather dry through much of the interior with an upper ridge. Note the circular nature of the rainfall across the nature. This is where you see the rainfall developing on the periphery of the upper high. A great example of where the most stable and dry air will be over the coming 10 days. The weather will begin to shift later next week into the weekend with a trough passing over the southeast, the SAM tending more neutral into positive territory and the MJO rotating around into eastern Indian Ocean.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms will continue through southern, central and northwest WA where storms have a high chance of turning severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The storm coverage will begin to contract eastwards during the afternoon as a trough collects the moisture and moves eastwards. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms over parts of northeast NSW and southeast QLD near a weak trough and wind convergence. Scattered thunderstorms possibly during the afternoon and evening over the NT and FNQ.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms begin to contract back to the northwest of the nation on the western face of a large upper high sitting over Central Australia and north of a ridge south of WA. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding possible over the Outback. Stable air returns to the eastern inland with the onshore southeasters over QLD shifting the storm risk back to the western side of Cape York. A wave of instability over the north may flare up storms over the Top End during Sunday.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

A wave of energy across the northern tropics may produce scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with the risk of damaging winds. The thunderstorm risk over northwest WA beginning to contract further north and northeast as ridging begins to strengthen south of the state. A few thunderstorms along the Wide Bay and to about Yeppoon may produce heavy falls on the extreme coastal fringe.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

A push of dry air over the tropical north from the east will see a reduction in convection and the focus of thunderstorms should be across the northwest of the nation. Some storms may be gusty. Along the Central QLD coast, showers and thunderstorms are likely along the coast in the vicinity of a trough offshore. Storms may produce moderate rainfall.

DATA - Refer to the video where I use the CMC model for the outlook to compare with the GFS below


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Not much change from this morning, but once again I have low confidence in the forecast packages from about day 5 onwards through the period. So more details to come over the weekend on the weather guidance, I expect more changes.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Very much unchanged through the coming week from this morning's update with dry air covering much of the nation and the more humid values found around the periphery of the high pressure system in the upper levels. So light falls expected for most regions, below average most elsewhere away from inland portions of WA where deeper moisture and storms will feature over coming days. Keeping an eye on the moisture streaming off the tropical feature over the Indian Ocean.

00Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state by state fly around.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

More details coming up on Saturday with a brief update with full details and forecasts due on Sunday. Have a great weekend.