Hello everyone, I have arrived in Victoria once again to finish some work off with clients so thank you for your patience in the travelling.
Things to watch as we move through the coming week to 2 weeks are as follows.
A band of rain is expected to sweep through the southeast tonight producing moderate rainfall with local thunder. This band of rain will progress through NSW on Saturday and weaken as it moves north and east with very little getting into QLD at this time. The moisture and lingering trough may produce a few showers about NE NSW and SEQ now but not as much as first forecast. The rest of the weekend for inland areas of the nation away from the east, dry. The coastal areas looking cloudy and over the north feeling dry and humid with only the odd pop up shower or storm.
Watching the front push through tonight and tomorrow over southeast Australia with rainfall expected to ease during Saturday over the east and by Sunday most of the nation settled. The next system to watch is over the southeast during Wednesday, does this form into a low? And the other system on the board of interest is the northeast rainfall event, do we see more above average rainfall? More on these systems coming up throughout the weekend.
Moisture content through the period is coming down from the highs we have seen this week but as pointed out below this animation there are two systems to watch across the country. Dry weather looks settled for many inland areas but over the northeast, east and southeast inland, we could be dealing with further follow up rainfall to the event going on tonight and tomorrow. The tropics, still hot and unsettled with moisture lingering for the period.
SYSTEMS TO WATCH
Cold airmass is forecast to surge north behind a cold front and interacting with the moisture over northern parts of the nation. The question that needs to be answered is whether we see the moisture link into the system as it moves northwards through the southeast or whether it bypasses through to the east.
A very sharp upper trough over the eastern inland on Thursday could produce more active weather than what is being defined now by the models so this system will need to be watched closely as it appears models are turning back to the original idea of a modest rainfall event from mid next week with a low forming over the southeast. Something to watch from Saturday.
SYSTEM TO WATCH - QLD - LATER NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
Could see a rain event form over northeast parts of the country as mentioned later next week into the weekend which may produce some further heavy and above average rainfall for large parts of QLD. This system has been showing up every day in the medium term forecasts for the past week and is now moving into the shorter term window so will be watching this closely with interest. The system in the Bight could be the trigger to pulling the moisture south and southeast.
There is the upper air pattern showing the trough in the upper levels moving eastwards into QLD and lifting that moisture. Note the teeny little low over the southern Bight being the system evolving as it moves north through open waters towards Australia.
GFS has a lot more rainfall in the medium term than other models but certainly has got rainfall in the short term over the southeast with the deepening trough. Over the QLD region and the NT the moisture lingers for much of the period, but does not result in the widespread rainfall potential as the other models see from later next week so this will be an area of interest over the coming days. The GFS showing a large cloud band developing north of a westerly wind belt from about the 9th of May onwards, but as mentioned, this is where weather across the nation will become more active, but how it evolves remains to be seen.
The Euro has a fairly decent rain band of 10-40mm for the southeast inland over the coming 24hts before the event clears away during Sunday. The weather looking settled for many areas until we get to about Wednesday or Thursday as mentioned above, then the northern tropics need to watch closely to the upper trough moving in later this week into the weekend, do we see a rain band develop over QLD in response to this feature. The west remaining fairly dry and stable for now.
The CMC showing a nice rain band moving through the southeast tonight and NSW on Saturday before that event eases by Sunday. Much of the rest of the nation's interior dry through to about Mothers Day if this is right. The next system over the southeast arrives on Wednesday and this model wants to plant a low over the southeast with cold wintry weather for the remainder of the week. The weather does turn from about the 11th onwards on the CMC for the west with rain increasing and this would then translate eastwards thereafter into SA and southeast Australia. It also has the rain event over the northeast outside of this period as well, through much of tropical QLD.
I will have a broader update on Saturday morning. Have a great weekend.