FRIDAY EVENING WEATHER - THE SEVERE WEATHER SPREADS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH VIC AND NSW, THEN SE QLD.
The rest of the nation, your weather is fine and dry with a high controlling things away from the tropics, where the usual routine showers and thunderstorms are ongoing with the monsoonal break conditions.
Severe thunderstorms are possible through Victoria tonight but looking at the radar presentation, these if they do develop, as expected are looking to form on the front edge of the rainband.
The more robust and humid air is laying through NSW and the ACT for Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing over southeast areas and southern areas at first with the risk of these translating north and east through the day. As mentioned in the severe weather post for the weekend, issued this morning, the most violent weather will occur in regions able to get into the high 20s or low 30s.
Western Victoria through Western NSW should remain dry over the weekend. The focus of the heavy rainfall will clear out of VIC later in the day, though persist about Gippsland where onshore southeasterly winds will continue.
By Sunday, the bulk of the severe weather risks will continue to contract north and east with the upper low moving northeast through NSW. Drier southerly winds will filter in behind so conditions becoming cooler and more stable over VIC away from Gippsland and through much of inland NSW west of the Great Dividing Range. Severe thunderstorms are likely for the eastern third of NSW through eastern QLD with some areas likely to see dangerous thunderstorm activity.
The tropics remaining around seasonal and fine weather for much of SA and WA.
Next week I am continuing to sweep the moisture back out into QLD and northern NSW, with showers for the east coast continuing but not at the levels we have seen in recent weeks. The storm risk through QLD could remain at severe thresholds over the eastern third of the state extending into the sub tropics, most afternoons.
The tropical weather also looks to increase as well, with a deeper moisture supply expected to be lifted by unstable air through the region. Presently the upper high is nearby leading to more suppression of the afternoon storms even though it is filthy humid.
The west of the nation through SA, warm to hot and sunny through much of next week.
Lets take a brief look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall with Anika starting to drop off over the inland. We are seeing a reduction in rainfall overall for most of the nation as we see an increase in upper heights throughout the interior. This will lead to more settled conditions. The weather looking drier over much of the south and central inland with a southerly flow. The east and northeast remains unsettled with a moisture supply that is fairly deep and low pressure nearby but eventually the rainfall will start to move out of the southeast and eastern inland. The tropical rainfall will also increase as well with a deeper moisture profile building under the current northeast to easterly flow. Some signals that the MJO may rotate around through the north of the nation from the Indian Ocean with an increase of rainfall possible through the medium term. The east coast and up to the FNQ coast looks to remain fairly unsettled with showers increasing with the trade winds.
Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday
Thunderstorms are expected to contract east through VIC into the eastern third of NSW and southeast QLD as an upper trough and low migrates east. Dangerous thunderstorms along the dry line are possible north of the upper low through central and northeast NSW with all modes of severe weather possible including giant hail and destructive winds. The drier air limiting showers and thunderstorms over the tropics for this time of year with a broad ridge moving into the Bight.
Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday
Thunderstorms are forecast to feature in the same location on Sunday as the trough in the east becomes stalled in the region. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is the main concern but also, the large hail and damaging winds risk. Some storms over northeast NSW into southeast QLD could turn dangerous with giant hail and destructive winds. The weather over the north seasonal, the coverage could become more widespread on Sunday with the air a little more unstable.
Thunderstorm Forecast Monday
Thunderstorms will likely contract further north and east through NSW and over eastern QLD where an upper trough remains. The storms may be severe over the east of QLD and northeast NSW. The southeast and eastern inland looking drier with more stable air near ridging. The north of the nation, the routine showers and storms continuing, these may extend further down the west and northwest coast.
DATA - More coming up in the next video on Sunday afternoon.
GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
The rainfall is forecast to contract further north and east throughout the period with this week a week of transition. More drier and stable air will eventually work through behind the last of the upper lows with the southerly flow moving into the eastern inland. The tropics and much of QLD remaining in more humid air, but western interior parts looking fairly settled under the drier airmass. The severe weather risks become contained now to thunderstorms, so the severe weather risks become more isolated in nature and mainly for QLD. The rest of the nation looking fairly quiet throughout the week. We will see an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the tropics this week. The weather into the medium term also looking settled to start but with the SAM tending more positive, we will have an increase in the rainfall chances building up over eastern and central Australia it seems. The west of the nation looking settled for now but I am not sold on the idea of it being completely dry and that goes for SA. So watch the forecasts in the coming days.
GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
The pattern flip is underway and we can already see the drier air finally surging throughout the interior in the coming days and moving over the southeast states as well, so while it won't be completely dry in the east, the rainfall coverage and severe weather risks are coming way down. The heavy rainfall threat from thunderstorms will move into QLD and stay there throughout the period. For the northern tropics the moisture is forecast to become a little deeper as we go and some of that may start to sweep into the interior of WA and maybe northern SA into the middle of the month. Noting the SAM turning positive which will help see moisture build for the eastern states.
GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Rainfall spread and totals are on the way down through this period for many across inland Australia, in all states, a marked reduction in rainfall due to the moisture being shifted north and east and low pressure also becoming more sparse. The ridge will take all week to move through to the east and settle in the Tasman and once that happens at the end of next weekend, then we start to see the next rainfall event emerge on the board. Location and distribution of that rainfall remains to be seen at this time. The tropics will see increasing rainfall through this period, especially over FNQ.
GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks
Rainfall comes up into the medium term under the positive SAM and the potential for the MJO to rotate around to the north of the nation. This will result in a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the medium term, perhaps the last strong burst of wet weather. This may influence rainfall chances for the west and central areas of the nation as well.
More coming up from Saturday, I am here in the Central West on assignment so I will have my next video here Sunday afternoon.