FRIDAY EVENING WEATHER - THE RAIN FALLS IN THE EAST, COLD OUTBREAK FOR THE SOUTHEAST - DRY ELSEWHERE

The rainfall is underway through much of northern NSW and southern QLD and it is a cold rain as expected, with a lot of cloud from early in the day, trapping in the colder air leading to this Wintry mess. The rainfall is progressive and forecast to move further east overnight with moderate falls in places, possibly getting up to 40mm in pockets of northern NSW and across areas inland of the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane.


A front over the southeast has brought a round of showers and thunder to parts of southern SA with the odd fall over 5mm this morning, that shower activity is now spreading across the south of the state and into the southeast this evening and over the border into Western VIC overnight.


A follow up cold front moving through during the day on Saturday is the one to watch and likely will pack a punch with the risk of damaging winds developing, a broad band of rain and thunderstorms with moderate follow up rainfall for large parts of Ag SA, extending across VIC and through to southern NSW and the ACT Sunday afternoon.


This sets up a mean and cold southwesterly flow with further fronts embedded in the airstream leading to more showery periods for southern SA, VIC and into southeast NSW west of the divide but likely stopping short of the ACT.


Cold weather issues are outlined below.


Along the northern flank of the rainfall, a jet stream cloud band will whip up some light and patchy rainfall over the southern and western parts of QLD which could increase in coverage over the coming days, so will be watching that trend. As we move into next week proper, the weather should dry out over much of inland Australia, with dry air from the south combining with the higher pressure over the interior.


For our friends out west, the rainfall event hanging along the central and western coastal areas is proving to be difficult to track, but there is evidence we may see a more substantial rainfall event moving through the state from mid to late next week with the trough slowly moving eastwards in relation to the slow moving high over the Bight which will ultimately control the nation's weather.


Some chance that the drier air propelled around the high will struggle to get into the northern tropics so we could see further humid and warm weather with scattered rainfall about.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is continuing to fall over the eastern inland of the nation tonight with some areas recording some moderate rainfall totals thus far and that will continue through to Saturday morning, the band ultimately lifting out and away by mid-morning. A few clumps of showers and storms over the southeast will continue to move east tonight. A stronger cold front is forecast to move northwards on Saturday leading to a more robust rain band moving through SA then into the east on Sunday with some locally moderate to heavy falls now possible. The system is expected to move on by towards the Tasman later on Sunday and in its wake a cold showery airmass will establish leading to further light to moderate rainfall well into next week for the southeast. To the north of the cold air, over QLD we could see another weak cloud band form on Sunday afternoon into Monday producing light rainfall that could stretch back over the Central NT. This may replicate throughout next week and shift northwards as we go. Out west, the big question is how much rainfall can sweep in from mid-week, and how much of an impact will the high pressure system play in blocking or opening the door to the moisture? Lets look at the areas below that carry a higher confidence. Rainfall most elsewhere is so volatile there is no skill in forecasting at the moment.


Southeast Cold Outbreak

The forecast is supporting the wet weather to continue over areas exposed to the southwesterly wind regime and frontal weather. Minor tweaks to the rainfall spread will continue through the weekend, so stay tuned for that. The bulk of this is within seasonal values for this time of year, a little above average in spots but typical for early June and follows nice rain in the drier spots earlier this week. Rainfall over northern areas will be gone by early next week with a dry week, though cold and cloudy at times for northern NSW and southern QLD stretching back into interior SA.

Eastern Rain Event - Next 40hrs or so

The rainfall has come down in some parts as the band moves east, but it is picking up over other areas this evening. The chance we could see some areas record their June average out of this feature in QLD. The rainfall should largely be off the coast during Saturday afternoon but there may be another band of rain form later Sunday which is drawn in here, I will take a look at that tomorrow afternoon.

West Coast Rain Event - From mid next week "POSSIBLY!"

Generally fine the next 4-5 days for the west with some residual cloud pushing through the interior. I am watching that upper trough and moisture approaching from Monday and the position and the strength of a high to the south of the state, both of these systems will either compliment or compete with one another, so it will be rather telling how it pans out. The rainfall is still expected, IF it does indeed make landfall, heaviest over the Pilbara and Gascoyne with a good chance if that occurs, of the system moving south and southeast gradually, with rainfall spilling into the Ag Areas mid to late next week. But it all comes down to timing, placement and scale of the high to the south and the low riding in from the northwest. Interesting times, this forecast carries a low confidence at the moment.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

A near stationary trough over WA and the NT will keep the chance of thunderstorms going, but the coverage is expected to wind down a bit. The chance of a thunderstorm continues for areas over northern areas of Cape York and about the Tiwi Islands and Coburg Peninsula. A strong cold front pushing into the southeast may bring the chance of damaging wind gusts with the scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms Forecast Sunday

A cold front moving through the southeast could bring showers, local hail and thunder with strong and gusty winds, some could be over 90km/h. Over the northern tropics, the southeasterly surge is forecast to move through the area leading to storms contracting northwards during the day.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Showers and cold winds over the southeast with an upper-level trough working through may produce well below average temperatures. A weak trough in the morning may produce a few storms with hail. The northern tropics drying out, but a few residual thundery showers are possible about the far northwest Top End and over Cape York with a weak disturbance nearby.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are still possible over the southeast with another cold front clipping the region, leading to small hail and gusty winds. Further afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the norther tropics during the afternoon in advance of drier air surging northwards.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are once again possible over the far north of Cape York and should clear the southeast by dawn on Wednesday. Stable weather most elsewhere but I may introduce some thunderstorm risks for the Pilbara and Gascoyne in future updates if the confidence levels increase surrounding the rainfall spreading in from the Indian Ocean.

WEATHER ISSUES

Farmers and Graziers - This Weekend and may persist into next week.

The cold and windy weather will continue for large areas of the southeast for the coming week, but we have got a pair of strong cold fronts expected to move through leading to all the elements available, leading to dangerous conditions for stock exposed to these wintry winds and showers. The risk will contract further south into VIC and TAS next week with conditions improving over NSW, though remaining cold.

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

A strong cold front passing through the southeast will see damaging wind gusts developing ahead, with and behind the feature as it rolls through late Saturday through Sunday and into Monday. The risk will contract into Victoria during Sunday afternoon with a mass of cold showery air persisting into Monday. Strong gradient winds will reach the NSW Alpine areas and bounce off the Great Dividing Range and impact areas to the west of Sydney and Wollongong. The winds ease from Tuesday next week.

Snowline - Sunday through early next week.

Noting that the coldest air will be peaking over the southeast from Sunday to about Tuesday before we see conditions starting to improve over NSW and the atmosphere should begin to warm over VIC and TAS later next week. The weather is forecast to become drier as we go through the week across the inland, so even though there may be colder air, there may be no precipitation available to produce snow, with that staying back into VIC and TAS.

Frost Forecast This Weekend

A low chance of light frost Saturday and Sunday morning for some in the southwest inland, though with cloud lingering, the risk is forecast to be mitigated from this.

Frost Watch - Mid Next Week

Watching the pace of the high out to the west of the region, if that can come in quicker than what is being advertised, then it will set up a nasty period of frost, but at the moment, the consensus is to keep the system further west, allowing the southwest flow to continue with below average day time temperatures but enough wind over VIC and southern SA to ward off frost. Where winds drop out further north over NSW, eastern SA and southern QLD, this is where we will see a higher chance of frosts returning, especially about the Slopes.

MEDIUM TERM

June 10th-17th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are forecast to remain elevated over the northern and western parts of the nation where moisture is likely to be dammed in with a strong high-pressure cell slowly moving over the southeast, leading to a drier period, but nothing too crazy. That moisture out west would eventually fold into the jet stream and come in the southeast and east of the country for the end of the month with a pattern flip seeing high pressure back out west and low pressure in the east, but some interesting viewing coming up with the model data.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are not budging from this persistent cold signal across the country for the first half of June which as mentioned in my Climate Outlooks, goes against the grain of the climate model data! So this is where coming back and checking the short and medium range forecasts daily pay off. If you are reading this daily then this does not apply to you. Overall we will see more cloud covering the nation via the jet stream and onshore winds with a slow moving high over the southeast keeping things colder. Seasonal weather forecast back in the SWLD and over the far northern tropics, though will be more humid up there.

CLIMATE DRIVERS

Southern Annular Mode - Neutral then tending Negative

The SAM is sitting in neutral values, and while we are seeing frontal weather this weekend and into next week, this is following the negative phase from a few days ago. Another more protracted negative phase could be on the cards from mid-month sending frontal weather back over Southern Australia and helping to spread moisture throughout the nation via the jet stream.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details on the daily break down for the short and medium term but this forecast is carrying a very low confidence strap at the moment.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Looking more typical of winter with more brown on the maps below over southern Australia, meaning we likely have seen the last of the La Nina influence for now across eastern Australia and the attention turns to the Indian Ocean which is certainly playing a huge part in spreading moisture through the nation from northwest to southeast. Multiple cloud bands are likely in the short and medium term, but the GFS is running very dry tonight and I am not buying that solution. Watching with interest the impacts of the cold air over the southeast and the dry air pushing into the warm moist air over QLD, will that form a large cloud band early in the new week? And out west, the moisture building offshore, will that crash into the west and northwest of the nation? Questions that hopefully have some answers with a higher confidence later this weekend.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

Have a great weekend, I will be back on Saturday morning with the next update but the next broad video update is due out on Sunday. Look out for the Winter State Based Outlooks due on Sunday as well!


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