FRIDAY EVENING WEATHER - THE COLD BLAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND HEAVY RAINFALL RISKS OVER THE WEST.

They are the main weather makers at the moment that offer the risk of severe weather in the coming days, most elsewhere is expected to remain fine and generally settled with colder weather developing over the SWLD of WA and cooler air spreading north over the eastern inland of the country as we track into next week.


The cold blast will have the wider impacts across the country with many areas forecast to see a fall in temperatures and this will also impact the tropics next week as well.


The residual rainfall over the eastern inland tonight should be gone tomorrow, a few showers that are working through the southeast tonight with a weak trough will also linger into Saturday with coastal areas likely to be impacted most through SA, VIC and TAS.


Out west, areas of rainfall about the Gascoyne and Pilbara will lead to some areas recording 1-2 months' worth of rainfall this weekend, mainly about the coast. Thunderstorms may also produce strong winds.


To the south of the upper trough driving the heavy rainfall, most of Ag WA should be dry for now with a strong southwest change with showers developing mainly east of Esperance.


That strong system will then race into the Bight with some issues about whether it will form into a low pressure system or not as it approaches SA and VIC on Sunday. Some areas could see damaging winds develop ahead and with the front with a large drop in temperatures forecast. Moderate rainfall is also expected with the front as it moves through the southeast inland into Monday.


Following the front, a deep southwest to westerly flow with cold air racing through the southeast and eastern inland with further showery periods, local hail and thunder possible. Some areas could see further moderate rainfall, especially areas exposed to the southwesterly flow.


Snowfalls are possible away from Alpine areas but determining timing and placement of the cold air remains to be seen but overall, a colder and more unstable airmass will be in place for the early part of the week.


While this is ongoing, widespread showers and storms will continue over the northwest of WA and this could spread through the western and central interior from mid next week, as the jet stream pulls moisture into Central Australia. There is some chance we could see some of this moisture being drawn into a new cold front that brings rain back to the SWLD of WA and then into the Bight from later next week. This also could bring some follow up rain to the south and southeast.


Let’s take a look - the internet coverage out here in QLD is not great, must get onto Starlink it seems. Apologies on no video tonight.


SATELLITE

There is that large upper trough over the west with a deep moisture infeed with widespread rainfall expected to develop over the days ahead and this could spread through the nation. We may also see that band come into QLD, but it remains to be seen mid next week. Widespread showers over the southeast inland today will be gone tomorrow afternoon with a stronger batch of showers and storms coming into the southeast with a stronger belt of weather coming through the Bight through Saturday into Sunday.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to continue tonight about southeast NSW and about the ACT with isolated falls back up the ranges into southeast QLD. All of this should clear offshore tonight. A new weak trough moving into the southeast of SA into VIC could see scattered showers and drizzle develop tonight and this could persist into Saturday morning before conditions clear away later. A mild airmass for most of the nation will be in place on Saturday and Sunday with the moisture left over. Out west, showers and storms will continue over the Gascoyne and Pilbara with heavy falls possible over the weekend and into next week. Some of this moisture may begin to spread into the jet stream and into the interior, but how far inland and away from the coast remains to be seen. A strong cold front is forecast to move through the Bight from Sunday with a band of rain moving through the Ag Areas in SA and then into VIC and NSW later Sunday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is possible along the cold front as it moves through with a broader band of rain to move through behind the front, then showery periods Monday and Tuesday is expected to bring the chance of further moderate rainfall over the southeast areas of the country. Conditions over the southeast clear from mid next week. Further rainfall over the northwest of WA is expected to continue through to next Friday with that moisture starting to be drawn into the interior and into a cold front passing into SWLD of WA bringing the next rainfall for Ag WA. The moisture may merge with this cold front to bring about the next chance of rainfall for southern and southeast areas of the country. The eastern inland north of about Coonamble looks dry and so does the east coast for the next week but watching that pesky cloud band over inland areas.

Rainfall running through the western interior into SA with mainly moderate falls. The areas over the southwest inland should see mixed odds, with the best of the rainfall likely to be found along a front passing through at some stage next week. Inland areas seeing below average rainfall in pockets if the bands diverge this week, but if they converge over the region, we could see above average rainfall.

Heavy near record rainfall is possible about parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne this weekend and into next week with a deep moisture supply running through from northwest to southeast with above average rainfall chances extending inland. Lighter falls further north and into the south.

I am not drawing in the rainfall spreading in from the west of the nation into QLD just yet but watch this space as forecast confidence in rainfall is quite low for this period. But the east and north much drier, likely the driest week of the year so far.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Stable air and ridging keeping things settled nationwide on Saturday, thunderstorms may begin to make landfall over the Central coast of WA with heavy rainfall impacting the islands offshore.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible along a cold front that is spreading through SA and into VIC and then the southeast during the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are possible with thunderstorms as is small hail.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

A vigorous southwest to westerly airstream with troughs embedded within the flow is forecast to dominate the southeast inland. Damaging winds and small hail with thunderstorms are forecast to be the major issues for the region. A leading band of thundery showers with strong winds over northern NSW into southern QLD will clear early. Storms may develop over the far northwest with a trough deepening along the coast. Some heavy rainfall is possible but mainly offshore at this time.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Stable weather moving from west to east over the southeast inland with the showers, local hail and thunder decreasing. A lurking trough offshore WA will continue to trigger thunderstorms, mainly offshore, but a few of these may impact land before weakening as they move further east.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms may still continue about the far northwest, mainly about the coast with a weak trough in the region, leading to some moderate rainfall, but the overall trend is for this activity to wind down.

SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES

Thunderstorm Forecast - Severe Issues Cold Outbreak

Thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern areas with a waning trough on Saturday with moderate rainfall and some gusty winds possible, but severe weather unlikely. Severe storms are possible with a damaging wind risk over SA through Sunday and this translates eastwards into western VIC and southwest NSW during the evening into Monday.

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds - Sunday to Wednesday

Damaging winds are possible along a cold front passing through the southeast inland during Sunday into Monday, but with a low expected to form over SA, and move eastwards over southern NSW, this could move the strongest of the winds north of much of Victoria and into Tasmania with the tighter pressure gradient there. Conditions turn breezy with strong winds over the southeast Tuesday but may be below severe thresholds for now.

Farmers and Graziers - Sunday to Wednesday

Once the front passes through, we will see a fierce cold airmass with gale force westerly winds over much of the southeast. Widespread showers, hail and thunder is forecast and snowfalls down to low levels.

Snow Forecast - Monday to Wednesday

Snowfalls are still expected to develop through this period but the airmass is marginally warmer in recent modelling, but this will continue to be updated to reflect the snowfall potential over the southeast so expect some more changes to this as we move forward.

Frost Risk - Tuesday through Friday

The airmass begins to warm from this time next week with the new high-pressure ridge moving through, but we have to be on the watch for severe frosts developing over the southeast. Certainly, looking at the coldest mornings of the year for these areas. Possibly a freeze for parts of the ACT and points south towards the VIC border (temperatures sustained below -5C)

Severe Weather Watch - Heavy Rainfall

Rainfall may become heavy over the coming days with a deep trough linking into moisture streaming into the nation. Widespread rainfall is forecast once again over the same region that copped heavy rainfall earlier this month. Be weather aware and make sure you have arrangements if you are travelling on remote roads.

Riverine Flood Risk - Next Week

Significant rainfall may lead to areas of riverine flooding with some areas possibly recording up to 3-4 months' worth of rainfall once again likely about the coast with some locations copping another round of severe weather.

Frost Risk - Monday to Wednesday

Severe frosts are possible about the southern inland of WA during the early part of the week while the southeast is being lashed by the gales and showery cold airmass.

MEDIUM TERM

June 3rd-10th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Still have enhanced rainfall chances over the northwest of the country where we will likely see further moisture running through the jet stream, modelling will chop and change as to whether this rainfall will make the journey across the country into the southeast and or eastern inland. Seasonal weather expected most elsewhere through southern Australia with passing cold fronts.

Temperature Anomalies

The colder signal is forecast to continue throughout the period for much of the nation and this is thanks to the lag impacts of the cold dry airmass that will be lingering throughout the nation following the winter weather system moving through early in the new week. This will push a lot of the hotter weather over the northern areas of the country further north and drier air to surge northwards. The coldest weather against the averages likely to be back over in the northwest and western interior of the nation where cloud could persist.

DRIVERS

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - NEGATIVE PHASE CONTINUES

The negative phase continues for at least the next week and that will be reflected with more cold fronts drifting through from west to east through southern Australia. This will support drier weather developing over the east coast and throughout the tropics with the flow pattern spreading the drier air around the nation.


Another update during Saturday morning and evening, looking at the severe weather potential across pockets of the nation. Apologies on the internet being not great here in rural QLD not allowing me to spit out the video but hope to get one back to you all on Monday. Thanks for your patience.