FRIDAY EVENING WEATHER - RAIN INCREASING OVER THE EAST WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEST

The rainfall is increasing as we go through this evening with a deep moisture profile via the jet stream across the country and the onshore winds now being lifted by a trough over the region. This trough is forecast to deepen overnight into Saturday before it moves eastwards on Sunday. Severe weather potential is fairly high through the region between Yeppoon and Noosa at this time.


For the remainder of the nation, showers will continue along the remainder of the east coast in onshore winds with high pressure near stationary over Tasmania, this keeping a very similar weather profile across the nation.


An upper trough/low, which is expected to be rather weak, could be sufficient instability to kick off a few inland showers and thunderstorms over the course of the weekend for NSW and into southwest and southern QLD. Those who get a thunderstorm could do OK with 10-20mm from the cells.


Still expecting some cold nights away from the region through the southeast inland and near the ACT where we see clear skies and light winds. But rather than frost we may have fog to deal with as low-level moisture increases.


Over in SA, the weekend looking mostly fine, maybe a stray shower over the eastern border but warming up and becoming sunnier through into next week. The warmer northwest flow thanks to an approaching cold front will be with us for much of next week leading to well above average temperatures.


Now the frontal weather coming through WA from Sunday will kick off showers and storms this weekend for some spots through the interior and then along the coast as the front moves closer. A band of rain to start next week with windy weather about the far southwest with a low passing through. Some rainfall totals of 10-30mm possible with that system throughout the region, but I do warn that a gap between the rain band to the southwest and the rain areas over the inland may form so keep watching the forecast charts here for further guidance.


The first front is forecast to move east into the Bight and could see showers and thunder run along the SA coastal areas and possibly into Ag Areas, but it is not certain. The high to the east will determine the coverage of rainfall, if it can move off quicker to NZ, then we may see more rainfall than what models are showing. If we see the high hold firm, lighter falls or maybe no rainfall at all is a possible outcome. We won’t know until Sunday night.


For now, the wettest weather over the west and over the east may be featuring with increasing moisture and rainfall totals for the southern parts of the nation as the frontal weather traverses the nation.


Let’s take a lo

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is underway through the eastern parts of QLD and showers have commenced through eastern NSW with moderate to heavy falls along some parts of the coast as the onshore flow continues to feed a trough which is deepening tonight and Saturday before moving away. A high to the south of the trough will remain near stationary over TAS leading to days of onshore winds with widespread rain continuing for the east coast with that not resolving until early next week. A strong cold front in the west is the other major feature to bring rainfall across the nation’s west and then possibly into the interior with a cloud band, moderate to heavy falls are possible with this feature throughout the west and southwest of WA and that may stretch into the interior. For southern Australia, the rainfall spread as repeated time and again here is determined by the scale of the high, how long it sits over TAS for and how strong the fronts and moisture are spreading into the central and eastern parts of the country. This is where we could see some light to moderate rainfall totals starting to show up from later next week for SA and VIC. I do think we will see a more dynamic and larger rainfall event spread through the south and southeast through the medium term and a chance for the east to dry out in the westerly wind regime.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible about the far east coast of QLD between Mackay and Hervey Bay during the day and there is the chance of thundery showers over western NSW and into southwest QLD and eastern SA. There is also the chance of thundery showers developing over the western interior during the afternoon and evening with severe weather not expected at this time.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible the west with a developing cold front offshore and a trough inland deepening and utilising the left-over moisture so the showers and thunderstorms across the western interior from Saturday should continue into Sunday. Low to moderate chance of severe weather for now with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main concern. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible about the Tristate in the east and along the QLD coast during the morning with the departing upper trough.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms from Sunday will continue into Monday over the eastern parts of WA before weakening and heading into the Bight during the afternoon and clearing. A low-pressure system passing close to the SWLD could bring damaging winds and gusty storms if it is close enough to the region. Some thunderstorms may reach the far west of SA during the evening.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to appear along a weakening trough and front moving through the Bight with potential for a strong wind gust and moderate rainfall. Thunderstorms could bring moderate rainfall to pockets of the Eyre Peninsula and thundery showers may reach the Adelaide region at night.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop once again over the eastern inland in advance of a trough that too, will bring scattered thunderstorms over SA with the chance of moderate rainfall. No severe weather is expected at this time.

Severe Weather Watch - Flash and Riverine Flooding Saturday to Sunday

A brief but fairly dynamic period of weather is forecast to produce scattered heavy rainfall totals leading to flash and riverine flooding as deep moisture is lifted to full potential. Rainfall rates which could support flash flooding of saturated catchments will place remote and rural communities under threat from further inundation following flooding last weekend. The risk should peak during Saturday and into Sunday before the rain breaks to showers during the day on Sunday. Residual flooding is possible into early next week. Remain weather aware if you live in the yellow zone.

Severe Weather Watch - Storms this weekend with damaging wind threat.

Inland areas could see scattered thunderstorms developing overnight Saturday into Sunday with a pressure trough deepening as a cold front approaches the west coast. Strong and gusty winds with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall is possible. Damaging winds with thunderstorms over the SWLD are also possible with showers and thunderstorms moving along the coast with the front, which may be followed by a period of gales with the low-pressure system attached rolling through the Capes. Conditions ease later Monday.

Frost Risk Forecast - Saturday to Tuesday

The risk of frost is now shifting into Victoria nearby a strong high-pressure system ridging through the southeast inland. Noting that the frost risk is now being moved out of the Great Dividing Range with the deepening easterly flow introducing moisture. So, the frost could be heavy at times over the Yarra Valley and points towards the East Central regions of Victoria. Some light frost may occur over in parts of southeastern and eastern SA.

MEDIUM TERM

May 27th-June 3rd 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are forecast to be quite elevated across the northwest of the nation and this spreading southeast via the jet stream in advance of an eastward moving long wave trough south of SA, this taking the wet weather throughout the southeast. Rainfall expectations at seasonal levels most elsewhere.

Temperature Anomalies

The warm end to the month for the east and north extending to the east coast continue to strengthen on the signals. The colder bias over the northwest a very high chance of occurring under thick cloud and colder westerly winds and rainfall moving through. The blue shading does spread throughout the south of the country with a widespread cloud band and westerly change passing through.

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - TURNING NEUTRAL

This is a much better signal for the southern parts of the nation and could result in more frontal weather emerging across the charts. Jet stream could become a little wavier, and the east coast looking drier.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More information can be found in the video, but I will mention that the forecast confidence is rather poor, and I will draw your attention to the difference in the medium term and the volatility from run to run. I will have more over the weekend but do not lose hope.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The values are coming down through southern and eastern Australia and to put it plainly, we should be seeing more blue and brown shading over the southern parts of the nation as the temperatures come down and we should be seeing the green and yellow shading further north across the nation where temperatures are higher. So that is normal. If we see a shot of the yellow shading (50mm) coming south through to southern Australia in Winter, that is excessive and will cause problems.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis



00Z Euro- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 9 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis as well as the state by state fly around!

I will refer you to the volatile of this model, this was the run from 6hrs ago!

More coming up from 8pm tonight looking at the rainfall and model spread! Next video not due until Sunday afternoon but the next broader update coming your way Saturday.