FRIDAY EVENING WEATHER - RAIN CONTINUES FOR THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. DRY AND SETTLED FOR EAST

OVERVIEW

We are seeing the end to the dry spell for many Ag Areas of WA today with the coastal rainfall moving inland. The east is quiet though colder tonight and through the weekend with severe frosts appearing this weekend and more likely into next week which could cause some issues for cropping farmers in the east.


The southeast showery and cold through the weekend but there is some change in the winds coming next week. Finally temperatures will recover but will it bring more rainfall with that airmass change or is it a prolonged dry spell for the east and a prolonged wet spell for the west and southwest?


SHORT TERM

It is all about the high pressure ridge that is sitting over much of the mainland and a large cell sitting over the Bight, the cell is slow moving and is being held up by the really big expression of cold weather we have seen over the southeast with the main axis point sitting over the Tasman Sea. This will lead to more widespread showers over TAS and scattered falls for VIC. The rainfall is expected to become more widespread again Sunday with the last front before the high moves in.


Colder air is sweeping into the southeast and eastern inland but the coverage of that colder air will begin to spread out through the weekend under high pressure leading to those very cold nights but lovely sunny days.


Out west, the dominance of the frontal weather moving through keeps the region wet, stormy and mild, there is not a cold airmass expected to drift through at this time, with the deeper moisture coming out of the northwest and west, this is keeping the temperatures elevated for now.


Dry season weather is expected to continue for the northern tropical areas.


LONG TERM

Watching the developing trough over in the west this weekend and into next week, part of this trough will move into the Bight next week and glance SA with widespread showers hanging offshore. This trough will be the first in a line of many that may nudge the dominant high further north and east slowly, making room for the frontal weather to bring rainfall back to southern parts of the nation.


Once the high over the east moves further east, this will allow the long wave trough that is carrying the cold fronts through the westerly wind belt to peak over in the SWLD of WA bringing about higher rainfall chances.


Moisture south of Indonesia will consistently stream into the jet stream, the question will be, how much of that moisture gets involved in the cold fronts spreading throughout the nation.


AREAS TO WATCH

All about the moisture and the combination of this moisture and the cold fronts over WA and then whether we see this move over the southern and eastern areas later next week.


In the short term, watch the frost forecasts in the east and southeast inland with severe frosts possible about pockets of NSW and the ACT, possibly southern QLD and into northeast VIC. Charts to follow this weekend.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - FRIDAY 10TH JUNE 2022 - NEXT VIDEO DUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains dominant in the nation’s west and spreading through the inland areas at times with cold fronts and troughs pushing through a long wave trough. The moisture over the northwest of the country is currently being drawn into the jet stream which is feeding the cold fronts leading to widespread rainfall developing over areas that are normally dry and settled and that is a sign of what is to come. Now the southeast will also see widespread falls but in the form of low topped showers and drizzle which will produce not more than 5mm a day right through to Sunday before clearance next week. Over the eastern, central and northern inland, it is a big bag of nothing for now, but I would be watching the potential for deepening moisture levels and bands of rainfall moving through the western parts of the nation as in the medium they will spread east and bring back rainfall for the end of the month over southern, southeastern and eastern portions of the country, mainly bypassing the north for now.

The heaviest of the rainfall as expected is forecast to be over in WA this week and then spreading through the Bight and lighter rainfall coming into southern SA and then the southeast. Drawing in light rainfall further inland to identify the risk of cloud bands developing later next week and the following weekend. Rainfall could possibly be heavier over the Pilbara and Gascoyne and the Southwest coast.

Much of the tropics and northwest dry for now, but humidity values up over the waters north of Australia are well above average for this time of year.

Not much expected the next 7-12 days for much of QLD and extending back into the central and northern interior. Some chance of showers along the coast later next week as the winds veer into the east but with the high close by, falls light and patchy.

WEATHER ISSUES

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday - WA

Thunderstorms are forecast to continue over mainly inland areas of the SWLD with the trough moving inland and the low dissolving along the coast. The most active convection to be found along and to the east of the trough moving inland with moderate falls possible. Thunderstorm activity will clear tomorrow night.

Damaging Winds - Strong Cold Front - Saturday PM - Sunday AM.

A period of gale to storm force winds through the southeast of the nation is expected to help project very cold air throughout the interior. The coastal areas over Gippsland and TAS could see winds up to 110km/h and damaging winds up the eastern and southeast coast of NSW south of Sydney could see winds up to 100km/h. This may also include parts of elevated areas of the ACT.

Blizzard Warning - Alpine Areas - Saturday to Monday

The risk of further snow showers but high winds blowing powder snow will cause blizzard conditions with reduced visibility this weekend. Easing conditions by Sunday night.

Farmers and Graziers - Southeast and Eastern Inland.

Strong and cold southwesterly winds and very cold air with showers to move through much of TAS and VIC leading to dangerous conditions once again for stock exposed to these frigid conditions. These conditions will ease on Sunday night. Gale to storm force winds will be the main issue with the showery weather.

Severe Weather Watch - Sunday to Monday

Another cold front approaching Sunday then passing through on Monday may produce some damaging wind gusts as that sequence unfolds across the coastal areas of the SWLD.

Riverine Flood Risk - This Week

Heavy rainfall in rounds moving from the Indian Ocean into the western interior may lead to areas of minor flooding by this time next week.

Frost Risk Expands Early Next Week

The frost risk becomes expansive this week and there is the risk of severe frosts developing over the weekend and next week, with the first period of freeze conditions (<-5C and below for more than 8hrs) as new high pressure sits over the ACT and remains slow moving leading to clear skies, light winds and well below average temperatures, which is normal for this time of year following significant periods of Winter weather. Individual forecast charts for each day of frost and freeze potential will be available as we get closer.

Much of the east to be impacted.

Much of inland QLD to be impacted in the short term and again early next week.

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast remainder of Friday

Thunderstorms are forecast to continue over in the west but may lift a little further north with a trough moving northeast a little. Thunderstorms may deliver heavy rainfall that could trigger flash flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms early on Saturday over the western interior of WA will likely clear later in the day. A thundery shower or two persists over the far northern tropics but mainly through the Torres Strait Islands.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

The cold front approaching the SWLD of WA looks to move in a bit quicker so late thunderstorms possible for the southwest of the state during the afternoon.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms will move through the SWLD with a strong cold front, with the coverage decreasing the further east you go, with the trough and front sliding southeast as the low collapses south of the state.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms is forecast to be mainly in the Bight on Tuesday with a couple of these clipping the Eyre Peninsula.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms mainly offshore the southern coast of Australia at this time, but watching the moisture streaming into the northwest of the nation to see whether that kicks off some thunderstorm activity during the course of Wednesday evening into Thursday ahead of the next front over the SWLD.

MEDIUM TERM

June 17th-24th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The drier bias continues over parts of the eastern states which is completely normal for this time of year. A prevailing westerly wind regime will keep the drier continental air running over the east, leading to drier sunny and somewhat seasonal weather. The frontal weather running through the southeast and south of the nation will be what you would normally expect to see at this time of year, the bulk of the rainfall likely to be coastal and into those areas exposed to the westerly wind regime. The more active rainfall is still expected over in the west with the moisture streaming through the jet stream and linking into cold fronts. This is where we will see the potential for many areas to tick above the average in terms of rainfall.

Temperature Anomalies

The temperatures are likely to shift from the cold snap of this week and then increase in coverage across the country through this period. A larger long wave trough is supporting a broad northwesterly flow developing and this will drag warmer air from the north of WA, through the central parts of the country into the southeast and east of the country. The cooler bias is over the southwest and west of the country with higher rainfall prevalence and frontal weather in a westerly flow likely to feature.

SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE - NEGATIVE TO PHASE TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THIS WEEK

That will see northern and eastern areas of the nation dry out and remain warm throughout the period on and to the north of the vigorous sub tropical ridge. To the south of the nation, the gusty westerly wind regime is lifting northwards as the negative SAM phase continues to unfold. The risk of higher rainfall is likely over the southwest and southeast and Tasmanian regions with the seasonal rainfall extending inland a little bit but not that far for this week, but it could change if moisture from the Indian Ocean can get drawn into the frontal weather.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further context on the information you are seeing on all the apps, forecasts that are freely available, and to put my forecasts into perspective. If there are any major issues to mention I will place that information here.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Not a whole lot of change, we are looking at that very cold and dry air surging northwards through the Southeast this weekend with near sea level snowfalls over TAS, giving you an idea of how cold it is likely to be. The cold air is surging northwards and that will be dry air, so a nice, settled week for much of inland NSW, QLD and into the NT and through to northwest WA. That is how far the colder drier air will travel. In the west, it is the opposite with the moisture continuing to feature in the westerly wind regime and through the jet stream, leading to higher rainfall chances. Some of that moisture could spread into the southeast and southern coastal areas during later next week with rainfall chances increasing into the medium term as the pattern continues to move along. Noting the moisture being picked up over the interior as an option, likely to be gone next run but it will be about as we head towards the 21st onwards.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis as well as the state by state fly around and analysis.

Next video update will be on Sunday afternoon with your state-based forecasts and the Climate Outlook for August to October 2022 due Sunday morning. Have a great long weekend everywhere bar WA. As always, I will be around so check back in with the weather information, as it never stops!