A quick heads up to those living in northern and eastern Australia with a risk of severe weather continuing today. The trough itself is producing heavy rainfall with a low end flash flood risk this morning and afternoon as well, but it will be the severe thunderstorms that form on the back side of the trough over inland areas NSW into QLD that will see large slow moving storms dump tremendous amounts of rainfall.

Another trough over the NT through eastern WA promotes showers and thunderstorms this morning, and these too could produce outback flash flooding. Kalkaridji and Yulara have seen 2-3 months worth of rainfall in the past 10 days and additional rainfall is now causing issues for communities through the western NT and eastern WA. A sign of what is to come in the next few weeks if not months.


Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are ongoing tonight with scattered to numerous cells out there along the trough. The thunderstorms will flatten out into a rain band and head towards the GDR at around midnight. The thunderstorms will carry a high chance of flash flooding tomorrow with gusty winds closer to the QLD border. Thunderstorms may be hard to find in a productive rain band further east thank to the cool stable influence of the rain cooled air.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Flash flooding is a high risk on Thursday as seen today, scattered pockets could see 20-40mm in an hour given the condition of the atmosphere, supporting the flash flood risk throughout the central districts, mainly west of the divide.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Strong wind gusts a chance through the northern districts where the weather will be warmer and more unstable at the surface.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

Very low risk over parts of the northern border with QLD. The air is saturated so it will be the strongest storms that have the low chance of producing this risk.


Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms could become heavy and severe about the south tonight and again Thursday with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. There may also be some flash flooding issues for areas over the western Top End too. The thunderstorm coverage consolidating over areas along and west of the Stuart Highway on Thursday with a new trough forming.

A broader look at the thunderstorm risk for the NT.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds are a chance through the southwest and western districts along and east of a trough during the afternoon and evening through QLD. More thunderstorms over the outback of the NT may produce damaging winds through the afternoon and evening mainly north of Alice Springs.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Flash flooding a high risk with a deep moisture layer and sufficient instability and slow storm motion.

Stay weather aware today with all the warnings from the BoM.