FLASH FLOOD AND RIVERINE FLOOD RISK INCREASING THIS WEEK

This forecast will likely be refined as we go through the next few days, especially for the weather event passing in from WA into the moist and warmer airmass laying over the eastern inland with rain and thunderstorms becoming more widespread.


We have already observed flash flooding from the outskirts of Broken Hill to Yanco to White Cliffs and Mount Jack in NSW through to Bendigo in VIC out to the Nullarbor in SA and then north through to the outback of the NT from Lajamanu to Yulara and inland of Darwin southeast to Doomadgee and west of Charleville this week. Amongst that, a months worth of rain has been observed in many other locations from the first trough earlier this week.


More of that is to come in the short term with scattered showers and thunderstorms but the main event is the system passing through from WA mid week and into the eastern inland from Friday into next weekend.


The pressure pattern below from the GFS - I will have more on this after 5pm.

So a heads up forecast this week on flash and riverine flood risks. The risks for northern NSW and southern QLD is increasing. Some locations could see 200-300mm of rainfall in this coming 10 days.

DATA


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Note the heavy rainfall bias over the east coast as been highlighted here for weeks. We are now likely to move closer to this unfolding in the short term, so if you live in QLD, NSW and VIC, pay attention to forecasts.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Some areas through QLD could see rainfall of 200-400mm if this is correct and 50-150mm through NSW on this current advice, but again this will chop and change but a heads up on the severe flash flood potential then riverine flooding under such guidance.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days

Again like the other models above, the rainfall bias through the north and east is significant, and we could see some areas recording 300-500mm on current guidance but we need to see more data from the other higher resolution modelling.

More details to come in the evening rainfall and model wrap coming up after 9pm tonight. The severe weather coverage does not stop, especially with the impacts being very high in the coming week.

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