FARM FOCUS - HUMIDITY IN THE SHORT TERM AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM.

FARM SERIES AND WEATHER - A TASTE OF A NEW SERIES NEXT WEEK.


Humidity is expected to play a major role in the weather as we go through November and into the Summer months. The risk of La Nina at a very high chance of developing, will lead to higher rainfall, cooler wet periods and this will increase the risk of tropical fungal issues such as melanose.


For southern areas and in the east, Downey Mildew, sclerotinia and altenaria leaf as well as pod spot are a risk for canola through the coming period. It may be quiet now weather wise, that is good for drying the region out ahead of harvest but IT WILL NOT LAST! Hopefully crops can be brought in at the highest yields in coming weeks.


Cereal diseases will need proactive management during the remainder of this year as there will be disease carry over on both volunteer cereals growing over summer and stubble. The wetter conditions during summer will increase the risk posed by rust and aphid spread viruses due to the green bridge.


We have lemon scab risks for the eastern seaboard which may also return to crops through the Sunraysia and through the Food and Fruit Bowl and points of SA. This will be with increased infection rates as the warmer and wetter weather develops in the coming 4 weeks. It is a sensitive time as plants are in flower.


Summer rainfall during last summer resulted in greater weed burdens and potentially more soil-borne disease and that is carrying over into this season ahead - and quite possibly a higher burden of weeds and disease is possible if the rainfall and warmer humid weather verifies.


With that said, I will be doing a series over the coming week on risks on crops through the coming 6-8 weeks and moving ahead through the summer months, plus a look at Autumn very soon.


Charts pointing out risk zones for each region will be available next week so make sure you check back daily.


THE SUMMARY FROM JULY - FOR A REFRESHER.- THIS FORECAST TO BE UPDATED OCTOBER 27TH 2021.


October is expected to turn quite wet throughout the north with elevated moisture values and that in turn seeing increased convection and more widespread showers and storms especially for the northern third of the nation. The humidity and thunderstorm activity may begin to increase in coverage for the Katherine area through Kunnanurra through Borroloola again running about 4 weeks ahead of schedule.


November will turn quite wet with showers increasing further throughout the Top End and Cape York extending into the Kimberly with storms becoming more frequent. The rainfall will increase through inland areas as the moisture is captured further by inland troughs so the rainfall events from October but through November could be quite heavy for large areas of QLD and the NT as the storm season peaks. So looking out for flooding issues.


December the monsoon likely to be knocking on the door to the north of the NT and WA with rain increasing through the month, heaviest as we get closest to Christmas. The rainfall over QLD likely to be heavier over Cape York from Christmas onwards. The remainder of NT and QLD is on notice for an elevated flood risk with the start of December looking stormy and wet for many inland areas with the moisture from the Indian Ocean still lagging from the peak of that phase in the spring, but the increased tropical activity starting to take over may see little break from increased moisture values to work with.


Early next year, way too early to be specific but the monsoon may phase in a way that means that half of January will see above average rainfall, as per earlier this year and then a drier and suppressed humid drier period. No indication of the climate driving a drier or overly wet bias for the north from January onwards at this time.


Inland areas may be subjected to quite stormy humid weather still in January but I do think the rainfall will start to back off through February and March with more seasonal expectations at this time.


Chance of early onset rainfall connected to the Wet Season 2021/22

We have already started to experience this and the risk is seeping southwards from this week before our very eyes. This forecast was curated on July 29th 2021.

Chance of increased humidity values through Spring and Summer 2021/22 connected to the wet season. This could pose a problem for areas further south through the food and fruit bowl, for orchardists and vingerons as well with a high chance of rot, rust and fungal issues.

This forecast was curated on July 29th 2021.

Remember that the wet season means it is flood season and there is an elevated risk of flooding for the season ahead, given the head start. If the season kicks off with the forecast gusto it is expected to, we could see significant flooding for large parts of northern Australia.