After a whopping rain event which saw rainfall totals for May reach well above average proportions over large areas of the SWLD, the Wheatbelt and Gascoyne and Pilbara, weather is settling with a stagnant ridge expected to control conditions through the west during the coming days.

A large moisture source is rotating through the Indian Ocean however, this will bring periods of cloudy weather and a little rain at times to the Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts, possibly extending inland from time to time, but because the high is close by, the sinking air motion and dry airmass, will suppress rainfall chances with this moisture in feed via the jet stream.

Satellite imagery over the Indian ocean showing the impact of low pressure systems well south of the equator, bringing in large amounts of moisture through the jet stream and into WA. This may play a large part in rainfall chances next week once again, when the next wave of cold fronts approaches the west of the nation.

Satellite Imagery - Valid Wednesday 2nd of June 2021 10am WST.

Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 weeks - GFS 18z run Valid Wednesday June 2nd 2021.

With all that moisture riding in on regular intervals, there are signals that the above average rainfall forecast for WA is looking fairly good at this stage, but as always it is in reality we measure the validity of a forecast. So watching this space closely but signals are good.

Rainfall forecast for the next 10 days - A dry few days for the inland areas will turn wet mid next week with the wet weather increasing over much of the inland just after this period. Valid Wednesday 2nd of June 2021.

With the large high pressure system setting up over the coming days, conditions will be dry, after cold nights inland. A few frontal systems will clip the south coast as they strengthen over Bight waters to our east and onshore winds will bring a few showers to those regions. A little patchy rainfall may develop about the west coast north of Kalbarri to Port Hedland with cloudy periods, which we can see today.

Tuesday 8th of June 2021

Euro 12z run - Valid Wednesday 2nd of June 2021

Large scale upper low over eastern Australia being supported to move northeast by a large high over WA. This will bring clear skies and light winds to WA. There may be local morning frost about inland areas with upper heights well above average.

Thursday 10th of June 2021

Euro 12z run - Valid Wednesday 2nd of June 2021

The upper low slow to move east mid next week, by Thursday has started to progress eastwards and then diving southeast through NSW and the ACT. A ridge over WA will weaken allowing room for a strong cold front to approach the west with some rainfall and strong winds.

Friday 11th of June 2021

Euro 12z run - Valid Wednesday 2nd of June 2021

Wave of low pressure rolling over WA bringing rain and thunderstorms to the west coast with large scale moisture in the upper atmosphere being drawn in from the Indian Ocean. Low pressure system in the east moving further away making room for follow up cold fronts to roll over WA during the latter parts of next week with rain and thunderstorms to continue in unstable westerly winds.

So make the most of the dry weather for now with a wet signal continuing for the next week and beyond in WA with frequent cold fronts likely to make a return to the southern half of the nation and with moisture rolling through the upper levels out of the Indian Ocean, rainfall could become more widespread.

Need more weather information for your part of the world? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org

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