EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY SET TO ROUND OUT APRIL ON THE EAST COAST.

A heads up for the return of wet weather for prolonged period on the east coast.

Make the most of the sunny weather this weekend, as a high pressure system moving into the Tasman Sea next week, is expected to bring the next rain event to the east coast.




Once again, the dominance of easterly winds around this high will bring up the chance of showers, from about next Tuesday. Elevated moisture levels sitting off the east coast will be drawn in on easterly winds bringing up the frequency and intensity of showers and thunder.


There is some concern that the prolonged rainfall event will only increase as we run into May with very deep moisture and precipitable water values sitting offshore will again bring in those excessive rainfall totals.



In the short term there may be some light showers and drizzle with a southeast change during late Sunday and Monday but the more frequent and heavier showers won't start developing until Tuesday night and Wednesday onwards for the NSW and QLD coasts.



The heaviest of the rainfall once again will be the flood zones which bore the brunt of record summer and autumnal rainfall.


March Rainfall was absolutely insane through the east with some areas recording 1100mm of rainfall.

This is the corresponding year to date which is only the first three months. It doesn't take into account the heavy rainfall at the beginning of April.



At this stage I am being conservative for the next event, however i have increased numbers from yesterday and they COULD increase further towards 200-300mm in future forecasts for parts of the coast. Some modelling indicates much higher totals, but this is not be monitored for now given it is still a ways out.




The main area to be impacted looks like Newcastle north to about Gladstone in QLD, but the risk area could change and lessen, depending if the winds turn more southeasterly (more stable) or more northeasterly (unstable).


Forecast for the next 14 days - refined and curated from all model data




A more specific map will be constructed and drawn up if the modelling continues to strengthen the wet signal to ensure that the information gets out there as early as possible.

For now this is a heads up for future heavy rainfall and renewed minor flooding based on the numbers tonight.


For now we wait and see how it unfolds through the weekend.

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