Finally....we are looking at a much calmer weekend of weather, and a drier and warmer weekend of weather developing. Much to the delight of the many of our farming friends in the east a dry spell is on the way.
High pressure which has brought a lovely week of weather to SA, with seasonal weather is now on the move towards the east and that is set to bring a period of warm to hot weather to the central part of the nation, that heat then moving into the southeast and east by Monday.
So it may be cold and wet over the southeast and east today, but the weather will turn dramatically and lots of sunshine is expected from Sunday through next week.
Out west, the changeable weather for the SWLD will feature, with fast moving troughs and northern most parts of cold fronts causing a few showers for the region at times next week.
The tropics also looking routine, build up continues with the main tropical weather sitting in the Coral Sea, that to form into a cyclone tomorrow if not Sunday then moving southeast. The secondary tropical low is likely to remain very small and run west through the Arafura Sea north of the NT with little consequence at this time.
For those wanting to know when the next major rainfall event is, probably not for about 10 days! So make the most of it.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall easing over the southeast with the weather largely dry for many areas over the coming 7 days. The tropics is where the more regular rainfall will be found over the course of the next 7 days once we lose the rainfall tonight in southeast NSW. There will be a series of troughs passing through the Southern Ocean, each of these bringing the chance of light showers to coastal areas, but also promoting a few showers and thunderstorms over the Alpine areas of the southeast. A stronger trough mid week might bring a better coverage of storms to the southeast and central parts of NSW. The moisture returns from about this time next week and the coverage of showers and storms for inland QLD and NSW should increase once again, but only scattered falls at this time. A west coast trough will also bring the chance of a few thundery showers from time to time through this period but mainly inland. There appears to be no severe weather issues post the event in the southeast.
Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday
Thunderstorms largely contract to the coastal areas north of Hervey Bay and extend over the northern tropics and into central WA on the periphery of a dry airmass and high pressure ridge. No severe weather is expected at this time.
Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday
Thunderstorms are expected in isolated nature across the GDR from near the ACT north through NSW and more scattered over the eastern inland of QLD. A marginal risk of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is possible in QLD. The tropics seeing the routine showers and thunderstorms with no severe weather expected tat this time.
Rainfall Following 7 Days - December 17-24th 2021
Rainfall begins to increase again over northern Australia with the inland trough deepening about the Top End, so an increase in thunderstorms is likely over the north and these could turn severe daily. The monsoon is no where to be seen so it will remain build up rainfall. The east will be dealing with a stalled trough with high humidity, scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely over the course of this period most days. Dry weather for the southeast but warm and humid and the western interior seeing the high based showers and storms most afternoons but the SWLD into SA mostly dry for now. No evidence of severe weather through this period.
Temperature Anomalies - December 17-24th 2021
The weather is trending hotter for this week and while the heat levels back off, the humidity values are likely to be elevated in combination with the warmer weather, so a tropical feel for northern Australia will extend southeast into QLD and NSW as we move into Christmas. The west may remain cooler than normal with ridging but not overly cold. Coastal areas in the south through this period may be spared the worst of the heat and humidity combination.
DATA - I have more details on all of this in the video
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Next 16 Days
I will have another update tomorrow morning at some stage. It is time for a gin!! What a crazy 4 weeks!