The west of the nation finally drying out, especially the SWLD which has been continuing to see well above average rainfall totals, but finally we may be seeing a period of drier weather.
The same cannot be said for central and eastern areas of the nation where the moisture and rainfall totals remain above average for the coming week. The further east you are through the nation the wetter you will be. It is likely many agricultural areas of NSW will be dealing with excessive rainfall from 2 systems in the coming 7 days which may be destructive.
The north of the nation is resetting after a few dry days and sadly for those dry season fans, you won't be getting a dry day like today until April at the earliest.
For now the focus of wild weather is over the southeast of the nation and I really wish I had better news but lets take a look at the latest details.
The satellite shows an increase of cloud cover and thunderstorm activity this afternoon over eastern parts of QLD and NSW yet again with a weak trough in the region. Thickening cloud with a weak trough through the southeast is expected to bring a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over VIC and TAS. More cloud developing over the west with a deepening trough is expected to lead to an increase of showers and thunderstorms across southern WA this evening before it spreads eastwards.
Precipitable Water Satellite
The PW satellite shows the movement of that moisture coming out of the Northwest Indian Ocean and that moisture feeding into the inland feature. This is where you will find the showers and thunderstorms increasing before it moves into SA tomorrow and the east on Saturday through Sunday.
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall guidance remains limited in the short term due to the divergence in guidance. We can see across the details today for the south and east, the path, speed and scale of the low pressure trough and system will determine rainfall distribution. Some will be absolutely belted and others will be spared (even if you are forecast to get a lot of rainfall - that is the type of system we are dealing with). The weather clears through to the Tasman on Monday. Now up north, the last of the drier weather is expected to move on from tomorrow and showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast packages into next week. The tropics are also playing havoc with the modelling at the moment as they realise the transition is early. Moisture from the north and northeast will feed into the nation throughout next week and likely to seed the next low moving over interior parts, so another rain event for QLD and NSW is likely with further heavy falls. The west is relatively dry once the rain moves into SA tomorrow and SA looks relatively dry for much of next week, but keeping an eye on that secondary feature. It is looking more likely that it will bypass SA and VIC at this time. But it is a very busy period of weather and I fear many will be caught off guard because the weather guidance is so poor so be prepared in the east!
Southeast Australia Focus - Next 10 Days
Watching very closely the heavy rain shield over the east coast which could be anywhere from Gosford through to Eden so stay up to date if you are living in this region. Also heavy rainfall leading to renewed flooding is possible for large parts of southeast and southern NSW extending to the Central West once again and possibly up through northern areas if the rainfall signals increase, which they have been.
Agricultural SA - Next 5 Days
Note this rain band can still move south or north through this period, so again any wiggle north or south will have large scale implications on rainfall. The forecast confidence is low still.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Thunderstorms are expected to increase over the tropics with a scattered coverage likely during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also expected to become more numerous over southeast parts of WA with that storm activity possibly gusty, this will start to form that rain band expected for SA and VIC Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms possibly about the GDR during the afternoon and evening through NSW and the ACT where wind convergence and a middle level trough may combine to produce the scattered coverage of convection.
Flood Risk This Weekend
I have adjusted this product this afternoon and will likely be altered again by this time tomorrow as the guidance becomes much clearer. Note that the rainfall will be heavy enough to warrant flash flood charts Saturday night and Sunday through the moderate and high risk zones. So you have 2 days to prepare.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 16 Days
It feels like a broken record with the focus of weather over the eastern and southeast of the nation, but the west is looking dry and warmer this weekend into next week on the other side of the high pressure ridge, however watch the tropical moisture offshore the northwest of Australia. The tropics are turning more active as well. The surface pressure pattern is beginning to show the first and second system over the southern and eastern parts of the nation now looking to run into each other keeping the wet phase going for about a week from tomorrow. There is further rainfall potential into early December That poses a huge concern for those in the east and southeast.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
Now we are seeing the models recognising the moisture that is building through the upper level winds being transported across the nation but also into deepening areas of low pressure which will support the formation of more widespread rainfall events. The weather tending more active over the northern tropics, say goodbye to the dry air for a long while. Finally, the GFS with their bogus tropical systems, had a cyclone over the Coral Sea this morning, now has one over the Indian Ocean, this is an expression of enhanced moisture, rainfall, and tropical weather descending south from the equator. Nothing more at this time.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
I will have more after 9pm tonight.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
I will have more after 9pm tonight
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
A closer look in shows that wildcard system we spoke of last week while we were being soaked is now looking more likely for the southeast. I may expand flood watches by the morning. More on this after 9pm tonight.
I will have the model wrap and all things rainfall coming up tonight from about 9pm EDT.