EVENING WEATHER WRAP - THE SEVERE WEATHER WINDING DOWN THIS WEEKEND. BACK AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

The east has copped a belting the past few days with a good supply of moisture, deep layered instability and very nice wind shear providing the support for the severe weather we have seen. Some areas recording 100-200mm of rainfall through this period and many areas now at average for January in terms of rainfall.


The southern and western parts of the nation, as I keep mentioning to ensure you don't feel left out, is really looking at not much change to the forecast packages moving forward. We have have pressure anchored to the south and while being south of the nation, it is close enough to leave the region stable, and place the area under warm to hot easterly winds.


Over the tropics, the thunderstorm coverage thinning out a little across the northern parts of the NT but picking up over Cape York and the Kimberly as the troughs reorganise in the coming days.


The weather remains thundery through the east this weekend and into next week, a middle level trough passing through the southeast on Tuesday or Wednesday may provide another round of severe weather for eastern VIC and much of NSW.


Finally, the other area to watch is the development of a tropical wave passing through the north of the nation and whether we see a low develop on this wave or not. And if so, where?


Due to the low confidence in data sets, no video tonight as the information will be useless for those who watch tomorrow morning. Next updated video will be on Sunday.


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is starting to ease from tomorrow with heavy falls about tonight through NSW and southern QLD with thunderstorms and bands of rain easing. Also heavy falls with severe thunderstorms over VIC tonight as the trough works through. Some of those storms have been very heavy and violent in parts today. The weather tending drier over all southern states this weekend, with the showers and thunderstorms moving into NSW and QLD. The weather over the northern tropics also drier this weekend but things turn wetter from next week once again across the nation. The GFS not really showing that on your model runs tonight but the energy and the moisture is once again there for more severe weather to develop over NSW and VIC with storms back mid week and a tropical feature born out of a tropical wave passing through the north may also produce severe weather. The remainder of the west and south looks to be drier but it is low confidence with such poor guidance from the modelling agencies. Will track again over the weekend.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms will slowly contract out of the southeast and move into Central NSW and points north and east near to the east of a trough that will once again pull up stumps somewhere over northern NSW Sunday. The storm focus continues with routine expectations over northern Australia for a monsoonal break period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms will likely regenerate along the same trough over the eastern inland and snake into another heat trough and low over the Central interior where strong to severe storms are possible. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main concerns still with high levels of atmospheric moisture. Over the tropics, the thunderstorm coverage still thinner than normal but where they form, could pack a punch. Storms through interior parts of WA near a heat trough advancing east, could be gusty with moderate falls.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms once again a high chance through interior surrounding a broad surface trough that will meander slowly towards the west throughout the eastern inland. Storms have a good chance of producing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The storm coverage increasing a tad on Monday over the tropics, especially Cape York, with the tropical wave/low moving closer to the eastern Cape. Storms likely to be gusty and higher based throughout inland WA.

Tropical Forecast - Next Week

Tropical Depression Risk - Next 7 Days

Favorable conditions exist for an orgnaised batch of storms to move across the northern Coral Sea with a tropical wave forming into a low pressure system, bringing enhanced rainfall next week. This is more of a major rainfall maker than high impact wind event but will have to pay attention closely to trends, as these forecasts can escalate quickly.

Tropical Cyclone Risk - Next 7 Days

The risk is low to moderate at the moment across all agencies for a cyclone to form over the coming 7 days, and if it does, the environment in this region and for the length of time the system is forecast to be over open water, would result in a big ole rainmaker with gusty winds. This has the potential to move west into the Gulf where conditions are favourable for cyclone formation next week, but most models do keep this system over land and moving it at pace, the faster these systems move, the more they cannot get themselves together. So for now the risk is low to moderate at best.

DATA


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Low confidence forecast remains.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

No change from this morning, but the confidence in the forecast is rather low, but I will make one mention before you watch, note the spread of moisture across the nation through mid month, that will result in a pattern flip, more widespread rainfall and heavier falls coming into SA and WA, not just the east.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Due to the low confidence in this - note the commentary I made this morning stands, no change to the guide, we will know more once we lose the dynamic system in the east and we get a tropical system on the board up north.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Compare the differences with the GFS above, and you can see that divergence across all models. Very low confidence applies.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

The moisture will be spread around the nation through mid month so do note, the rainfall numbers will increase as we go through the coming days.

I will have another update at some stage Saturday morning. Stay weather aware through the coming weekend over the eastern states, storms will still pack a punch. A over the northeast watch the development of any tropical system.


Back to full state by state posts from Sunday evening too as the weather is getting more volatile. No break for the wicked here ;). Have a great weekend.



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