EVENING WEATHER WRAP - SEVERE WEATHER FOR SA AND THE MONSOON UP NORTH - TROPICAL WEATHER OVER EAST.

And you guessed it, nice and dry and hot for the west with high pressure nearby. The weather is unlikely to change for our friends out west with a dry airmass and stable airmass in place.


The main weather action sits over SA and extends into the NT with widespread heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms set to continue tonight, tomorrow and into Sunday with flooding expected to increase in scale and intensity. The weather may lead to life threatening flash flooding for many in the Outback.


The east, sitting in an easterly flow, but with the ridge running through VIC, NSW and into QLD, the weather is expected to remain mostly dry but very humid with increasing humidity values as those temperatures rise.


Northern areas, we are anticipating the monsoon to return and that may lead to significant rainfall and thunderstorm activity redeveloping through the back half of the weekend and into next week with locally heavy falls emerging. Localised flooding can be expected for many communities throughout the NT, not just around Darwin but right down the Stuart Highway.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain widespread heavy, and locally destructive through parts of SA and the NT over the coming days with multiple warnings out. Some areas could see 1-2 years rainfall throughout inland areas leading to flooding. Over the north, the advancing of the monsoon trough towards northern Australia will see widespread falls developing, heavy at times with flash flooding a concern. The monsoon trough will descend further south through next week taking the heavy rainfall through the majority of the Kimberly, Top End and Cape York. Tropical lows are still possible through this period enhancing rainfall. The east coast, showers will continue for QLD and NSW but fine south of Sydney. The showery weather not as heavy as previous days with the ridge nearby. Scattered falls will develop for inland areas of QLD, NSW and VIC with the trough from SA broadening through next week and then moving east with a deepening low attached, that may bring more heavy rainfall potential to SA initially, but then into VIC, NSW and QLD. The west, away from central and northern areas, remains dry.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Dangerous thunderstorms will be ongoing over inland SA and may stretch into the NT with heavy rainfall leading to life threatening flash flooding and riverine flooding. Communities may be cut off and infrastructure could be damaged by this rainfall. There may also be damaging winds and large hail risk through the region as well. Heavy rainfall with thunderstorms over the northern tropics may lead to flash flooding and damaging winds may develop with a tropical low approaching parts of the northern coast of Australia, location to be determined.


Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms will continue to be of concern through the same region with significant risk of dangerous flash flooding and riverine flooding ongoing through interior parts of the nation from SA through to the southern NT. Monsoonal weather offers gusty storms with damaging winds. Even squally showers could be disruptive. There may be a few thundery showers over the VIC ranges during the afternoon and evening extending towards the ACT.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are expected to remain active over a broad area of southern, central and northern Australia near troughs. The coverage of storms over SA may decrease a tad as the trough opens up but severe weather is still possible with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main issue. The thunderstorm chances increase over VIC during the afternoon as the ridge to the east moves away. The northern third of the nation looking unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Tropical Depression Watch - January 22nd -29th 2022

Tropical depression may form as early as Thursday up over northern parts of the Arafura Sea and track southwards. The models are all over the shop with where to place it still so keep watching the forecasts closely as this will evolve rapidly in the coming days. Models will have various looks at the tropical lows and have them one run and take them away in another. Stay close to updates.

Rainfall Next 2 Weeks

Heavy rainfall leading to areas of flooding likely to develop for parts of the Kimberly, through the Top End and Cape York. Enhanced rainfall with tropical lows will dictate the heavier weather but overall, the rainfall will increase in intensity and frequency and the heat levels will be coming down.

DATA - Refer to video for the breakdown of the short and medium term and compare with GFS


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Not much change in the guidance this evening with the GFS showing extensive rainfall over the north and central areas of the nation. In the east, coastal showers will continue in onshore winds, but moderate accumulation is possible. The monsoonal flow up north will see rainfall intensity and frequency is expected to increase. The monsoonal flow may extend further south over the north, taking unseasonal rainfall totals further down through the NT and into northern QLD. Some areas may see some additional flood risks on the back of flooding around Christmas. The west remains dry under high pressure, Perth and the SWLD could see a record run of 40C weather this weekend, while interior parts of SA sees record rainfall, while the east sees record humidity values next week and very high temperatures. So this pattern is lending itself to producing more severe and extreme weather potential. There may be a bit of respite for some areas if drier air can infuse itself into a new high ridging through during February, but that drier push from GFS last night and this morning is starting to wane in signalling with the SAM expected to turn positive through to early February.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Excessive and oppressive weather conditions are anticipated to develop from northern areas into eastern parts of the nation, through QLD and NSW into VIC, with very high DPs and temperatures combining to produce weather that you would see in Darwin. The moisture will remain in place over northern and eastern areas right through the outlook. Any tropical system that gets up and going may produce heavier moisture levels to move southwards through inland WA through SA and into the eastern states as well, as we enter February. Note the heavy moisture remaining over much of QLD as well during this period and the persistent moist and unstable westerly flow over the northern tropics.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more informatio

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in at your states


Tropical North

Monsoonal conditions are back on the agenda up north and now we watch for tropical lows. The wet weather persisting for much of the region over the coming fortnight.

QLD

Extensive rainfall over the north likely to be heavier than what is advertised here. The southern and central inland may see reduced rainfall but it is all low confidence and will come down to where the low pressure troughs decide to align. Coastal areas will see persistent showers

NSW/VIC/SA

Extensive rainfall in the short term over SA will struggle to extend east but moisture will build up and remain in place waiting for the trough over in NSW and VIC, so there may be a region that sees little as the system jumps over. That may be eastern SA. Otherwise unsettled throughout.

WA and Interior.

Dry for now but watch those tropics up north. Very wet through the Kimberly and that will extend over the northern interior.

More coming up on Saturday. Have a great Friday night and stay safe through SA and the NT tonight!!





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