EVENING WEATHER WRAP - SETTLED SUNDAY, THE WEATHER TURNS ACTIVE FROM MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

The weather has been incredibly active in the past week however conditions are expected to be fairly settled for Sunday nationwide as high pressure comes in from the west. The weather cold to start with local areas of frost for some locations west of the divide in NSW.


As we track through into the new working week, the weather is expected to turn quite wet and windy for the SWLD of WA with a strong cold front set to pass through with gales and heavy rainfall.


Another trough is likely to form over parts of eastern QLD as winds veer into the east, this allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to return to the forecasts over the east coast.


Throughout the southeast, bar a weak cold front over VIC and TAS during Monday, the weather trending warmer and drier for much of the week with a prevailing northwest flow. A trough over WA, which will be the remains of the severe weather event, will bring a burst of showers and thunderstorms over SA through NSW and VIC.


The tropics remaining humid and unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms about. That moisture will move south into QLD and NSW during the outlook period.


FORECAST CHARTS


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not much change from this morning with the pressure pattern relaxing in the coming days with high pressure dominating. We have a strong cold front and a powerful low pressure system set to pounce on southern WA early in the week with decent rainfall for this time of year. A trough over the east of the nation, through NSW and QLD, will spark coastal showers and inland thunderstorms. Some moderate to heavy falls are possible under thunderstorms. The tropics remain active through much of the coming period, though the focus may shift around the Top End and surrounding tropics. The system out of WA will collapse as it hits the blocking pattern in the Tasman Sea, making it tricky to know how much of an impact it will have on the weather over southern and southeastern areas of the nation later this week. So the confidence is low confidence, given the moisture hanging around the southeast and eastern inland, so watch this space. Medium term also has a large increase in moisture values for the remainder of the month which I suspect will result in a increase of showers and thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible once again across the tropics, they could produce a decent amount of rainfall. A middle level trough may produce a few high based showers and storms over the central interior with little rainfall.

Frost Risk Sunday

A cold night once the winds drop out give the chance of a light frost for eastern inland areas of NSW and northeast VIC. The frost will be mainly over the GDR at elevation of 500m and above.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday through Tuesday - WA

High impact damaging winds possible for the southwest coast of WA, especially if a low pressure system decides to move over the coast next Tuesday. Squally conditions north and east of this advancing system. The winds may extend inland as well.

DATA

GFS 00Z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Low pressure moves off to the east tonight with a high pressure zone developing clearing skies and leading to a cold night tonight for eastern NSW and NE VIC. Out west the next system drags in moisture from the northwest and into the southeast throughout the week. That system bringing a belting to SWLD of WA with moderate to heavy falls, some areas may see a months worth of rain or more in a sitting along the west and south coasts and adjacent inland. Over in the eastern areas of QLD and NSW, thunderstorms are possible during the early part of the week with a trough, and then increasing later in the week with a new trough coming out of the west. Warmer over the southeast this week with a northwest to northerly flow. Trending cooler next weekend with a few showers and storms for the southeast with a weak trough moving into QLD. The medium term, becoming more humid and unsettled as we go with inland troughs but no defined weather event on the GFS but I suspect that will change. The tropics, hot and humid and unsettled, with some heavy falls possible. ** Watch the blocking pattern over the Tasman Sea this week. If it holds closer to the coast of NSW and QLD, then less rainfall for SA and VIC. If it moves further east and away, then more rainfall and storm activity may be on the cards.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

No change from this morning, the drier weather coming in behind the trough and the low pressure system, the southerly winds easing tomorrow. An easterly pattern over the east quickly introduces moisture back through the eastern inland throughout the week. Meanwhile the weather over the west will turn unsettled with a deep moisture plume thanks to a strong cold front dragging in the moisture from the Indian Ocean. That will form a large cloud band which will move east. The tropics very humid and warm and that air will again travel over WA and into the SWLD through the medium term. The east will start to turn more humid for the end of the month as well, so expect the rainfall chances to increase regardless of what the models are saying right now. I think we will see the modelling improve in the coming week. There is a lot of moisture out there for there not to be widespread falls.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

The uneven distribution of rainfall across many areas of the country over the next 2 weeks, but I do think things will turn wetter over coming days so watch this space. The west of the nation will likely see the most widespread rainfall activity in the short term. The tropics turn wet and the east coast sees showers and thunderstorms this week. The rainfall confidence drops away from later in the week through the end of the month. But notice the patchy falls over northern areas, with the thunderstorm and shower activity. This will continue to spread south and southeast through the end of month and into November.

CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks

Rainfall is still unchanged, a wet run into Christmas is likely.

Tomorrow I will have your Summer Outlook for 2021/22 for the nation and a detailed look at the rainfall and temperature outlook and a brief write up on the potential for an El Nino to return in 2022. More on that tomorrow.

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