I must say, I am enjoying not having to prepare doom and gloom forecasts for the east for once, it is rather nice to take a breath and gather energy ahead of the next busy period of weather which is likely to be over Christmas (and yes I will be here through that period).
The weather over the short term, quiet. Yes there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms drifting in through most of the inland of the nation during this period, but the coverage is very isolated, so even though you may have storms forecast in your location, they will likely not be long lasting and many areas should be dry over the coming week away from the tropics.
As we track into the end of the weekend and next week, that is when conditions start to turn, with more storms over the north and showery easterly winds developing for NSW and QLD.
Before all that, dry heat should spread through the inland of the nation, as mentioned this morning sweeping through the southern coastal areas from time to time, but with the fast flow pattern over the south, the heat should be projected back inland for much of this period.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Not much for many of you this next week with coastal areas up north seeing the routine showers and thunderstorms and along the east coast, convergent winds at times bringing showers and thunderstorms along the ranges, but they will be widely scattered. There is another trough born out of the heat in WA that will trigger high based showers and storms and these may run into SA but again, not much in that. The wet weather over Tasmania is thanks to the week of westerly winds. A weak front in that flow may bring showers to the SWLD mid week and a trough over the southeast during Wednesday and Thursday may produce showers and thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday
Thunderstorms most active through the western interior extending back to the NT along a trough that will produce gusty winds. Storms mainly elevated over the central and southern areas but heavier in terms of rainfall as you work towards the north. Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible over the eastern seaboard on Sunday but no severe weather expected.
Thunderstorm Forecast Monday
Thunderstorms continuing along a near stationary trough over the western interior with little rainfall and gusty winds. The storms over the northwest tropics random and scattered in the hot humid build up airmass. A few showers and thunderstorms about Cape York and maybe a rumble of thunder for northeast NSW, but the air looks fairly stable.
Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday
A weak trough passing through the southeast on Tuesday may generate afternoon storms about the Alpine areas in Victoria and NSW and these may dislodge and move into the southern inland of NSW, the ACT and South Coast. No severe weather is expected. A trough over the western interior will continue to produce showers and storms but will be retreating north as a high moves over the BIght.
Temperature Anomalies This Week - December 12-19 2021
It is set to be a much warmer week of weather with a low grade heatwave expected over the interior which is par for the course in Summer. The weather over the tropics also warmer than usual with the continuation of build up conditions. The heat will extend into NSW and QLD this week mainly west of the divide. The west coast and far east coast could remain below average in onshore winds.
Temperature Anomalies Next Week - December 20-27 2021
The heat continues into the medium term and as we run into Christmas though the temperatures may begin to moderate as we see easterly winds take over QLD and NSW. That will see temperatures building over inland areas and the cooler bias over the west of the nation may begin to swing back the other direction. The build up continues up north
Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 Weeks - December 12-27 2021
A lot of brown on the board for the first time in a while with a persistent ridge keeping things dry and toasty over the inland. The dry airmass in the wake of the low pressure this weekend will set the stage for a semi cleanout of the tropical moisture throughout the northern interior so back to hot dry weather. The east will see showery weather at times this week but it will be the following week that rainfall signals increase from the east and north and the chart will start to lose it's brown shading from next weekend as that signal creeps into the forecast package.
DATA - I break down all the details in the video above.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days
Note the unusually dry air over the north of the nation in the wake of the low pressure in the east and the Coral Sea cyclone. Once we lose that over the north and central parts, the rainfall will return and that will be felt as we get closer to Christmas over the north and east. Seasonal weather elsewhere.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Rainfall returns across northern and eastern Australia as we track into the back half of the week into next weekend. Settled elsewhere.
The rainfall increases across the north and east over the Christmas period.
More details coming up tomorrow.