EVENING WEATHER WRAP - NO SIGNFICANT CHANGE TO THE MORNING GUIDE.

The weather is settled for the short term, those looking for rain will have to turn their eyes to the north and east of the nation so if you are living there, you are in luck. The west and far south, so much of WA and SA are expected to be dry and pleasant, but trending very hot the further west you go where the moist easterly winds over QLD and NSW delivering the rainfall and storm activity dry out across the continent and heat up as well. So the dry heat of Summer continues, which is within expectations for this time of year.


Still watching the medium term where the signal remains, wetter weather developing over northern Australia, the placement of tropical lows will determine where the moisture and rainfall chances end up, all parts of the nation stand a chance of seeing this, but the higher chances are for those in the southeast and east, following up this week's wet weather.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

No change to the guidance from this morning, the forecast confidence remains fairly low as we wait for the troughs to become positioned in real time and to see how the tropical weather behaves over the course of the next week. That will determine rainfall for the short and medium term (a wet phase is likely through January). To recap, rainfall continues to build across northern Australia with deepening heat troughs and lows and the presence of a developing low or two north of the nation at the end of this sequence which may introduce a very wet second half of January for the north and then spreading southwards. The other major area of rainfall is in the short term, over the southeast inland with a slow moving trough, cradled by high pressure to the south and being fed by the remains of Seth via northeast to easterly winds. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to form near the trough with areas of rain developing over parts of VIC and southeast NSW. Some locations in southeast NSW and the ACT through the Riverina could record more than one month's worth of rainfall from this event. More rain and storms build through the nation as we track from this time next week with another trough deepening over SA and pushing into NSW and VIC once again at the end of the period. Showery weather for QLD continues with inland thunderstorms on most days, the coverage and location of the storms random and scattered. And for WA and SA, more of the same, sitting on the dry side of the trough nearer stable high pressure, so limited rainfall opportunities for southern areas of these states into the next weekend, but your fortunes may change as we track into mid to late month.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

The trough over southern NSW will lift to central and northern NSW on Tuesday, but stall out, resulting in storms relocating out of the southeast of NSW for a period. The trough over the north is set to deepen with multiple heat lows involved over the interior sparking showers and thunderstorms over a wide area of the NT and WA. The storms could be gusty over the north with damaging wind gusts as we have seen today with damaging winds reported from multiple areas over the tropics.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread during Wednesday with storms tending severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern. The storm coverage over the north and northwest also on the increase with storms tending severe, gusty damaging straight line winds are possible. Thunderstorms may also produce heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

The trough over the east amplifies in response to the approach of an upper feature from SA and the absorption of Seth in the east so widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern. Thunderstorms extend through inland QLD, though more scattered, may be gusty and heavy also. For the northern tropics, the thunderstorms will likely trend more gusty once again during the afternoon and evening with dry high based storms extending southwest from the tropics into the Pilbara.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS TO WATCH

Currently tracking severe thunderstorms today with an organised batch of severe weather already observed overnight through northwest QLD and now rolling up through the Barkly and into the Katherine region at the time of this update. The Daly including Darwin can expect some relief later this afternoon with a severe thunderstorm likely. There will be multiple rounds of severe weather to come through to about Thursday. Right now will focus on today and tomorrow. Damaging winds are the main concern over the interior and additionally, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding for Darwin and Palmerston this afternoon and this evening. This activity may be repeated again on Thursday into Friday across the region with another surge of southeasterly winds from the trough.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK - OVERALL THREAT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thunderstorms are likely to increase from Wednesday but more likely Thursday and Friday with areas of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern. I will review the flash and riverine flood risk later tonight and have a first forecast on those details tomorrow morning at some stage to pin down who is at the greatest risk of disruptive weather.

Tropical Depression Risk - January 10-17th 2021

There is a heightened risk of tropical activity across northern Australia throughout the next week. This will lead to enhanced rainfall risks near any low pressure that forms, and this will then feed troughs over the nation seeing rainfall increase over central and eastern parts of the nation primarily. However, a tropical low that runs further west of the modelling, may bring up rainfall chances for areas over WA and SA. This will be a focus of the medium term forecast packages this week. Once again, these tropical lows can whip up very quickly in the short term forecasts so make sure if you are living or have interests in the region, pay attention to forecasts.

DATA - Refer to the video to see GFS - I have just lost power so cannot upload stills at this time due to severe weather in the region.



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