The weather is certainly evolving for the nation with a pattern flip, taking high pressure that has been lurking out over the west, further south and then into the southeast, meaning the temperatures are coming down for the southwest and west of the nation. The heat over the southeast and east is set to rise after a cool few days in onshore winds and showers.

The monsoon lifts off the NT coast with the tropical low detaching from the trough and moving through north QLD and into the Coral Sea with rainfall contracting east through the north of the nation.

The weather is set to turn monsoonal break over northern Australia, which means that the nation is set to see less rainfall chances for about a week away from the east and northeast. The northern tropics likely to return to afternoon showers and thunderstorms with hot weather returning as well.

However, the monsoonal trough is expected to begin moving south again through next week and will likely begin to strengthen with rainfall chances increasing.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

No change to the guidance this morning, just taking the heavy rainfall smear away from the north as the tropical low moves further east. With the upper trough and onshore winds easing for the east coast, rainfall now mainly sits through the back half of the period with a much drier period coming up over the New Year weekend. The storms over northern Australia are related to the monsoonal break, and this moisture will gradually be pulled further south now over the course of the next 5 days, but light falls generally, isolated heavy falls under storms. Next week as we move through the first week of January, the weather will turn wetter over the north and east with easterly winds returning for QLD and NSW and the monsoon returning for northern Australia, or at least on the approach. Southern areas should remain mostly dry for now with changeable temperatures.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms continue for much of northeast QLD with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds the main risks on Wednesday. A trough sharpening through the western interior of QLD will extend through eastern SA with a few showers and thunderstorms but moisture is limited. Thunderstorms tending more scattered over the NT and into northwest WA with storms heavy in pockets but no severe weather possible. Dry storms with a lightning risk over WA.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms become more scattered over the north in a monsoonal break scenario, the main forcing remaining offshore, so no severe weather expected. Gusty high based storms over interior may bring damaging winds. Thunderstorms embedded in spiral bands around a tropical low moving east over FNQ may bring areas of flash flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

A deepening trough will take moisture from the tropics and start to see showers and thunderstorms move a little more south and southwest through the western portions of the NT into northern WA and through northwest SA and eastern WA. Some of the storms may be gusty leading to severe winds in some locations. Otherwise scattered to numerous storms over the tropics may be gusty and heavy, at this time the dynamic forcing is not there for severe weather at this time.

Tropical Depression Formation Risk - This Week - December 28 2021 -January 4 2022

The tropical low that is over the interior of the NT is heading east and is likely to maintain a weak circulation as it heads east. The low may pop off the FNQ coast and this low may deepen further into the medium term.

Excessive Heat - This Week - December 28 2021 -January 4 2022

The excessive heat is expected to spread from west to east throughout this week with a very hot airmass lining up the eastern inland west of the divide over QLD, NSW and VIC through much of SA with a cooling trend for WA.

DATA - Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More information in the video at the top of the page

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

More information in the video at the top of the page - but note the moisture does return in the medium term, so for those looking for dry weather over inland areas, make the most of it. The heat is gradually going to turn very sultry in the medium term for most inland areas of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information in the video - this chart I suspect will become much more colourful in the days ahead for a lot of the nation.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video.