EVENING WEATHER UPDATE - THE WET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE WEEK IN THE EAST - IT WILL CREEP WEST.

The weather is largely unchanged for the coming week as the high pressure system to the south of the nation expected to slide through to the east of the nation and continuing the easterly flow and the wet weather over eastern QLD and NSW. The weather elsewhere is largely quiet with a good supply of sunshine.


Over the tropics there has been a deep intrusion of moisture and this has lead to an increase of showers and thunderstorms today.


The weather out west is hot and that heat is spreading east, a chance for parts of SA and VIC to dry out but for NSW, the drier weather is expected to shift again during mid to late week with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing once again.


Satellite Imagery

The weather finally clearing out of the east, but it is very cloudy and overcast. I found the sunshine in northeast VIC with clearer skies back through VIC and into SA and the west is hot and dry with a stable a hot sky. The northern tropics have been active with a trough producing widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the past 24hrs with a deep moisture supply in place. The weather over the eastern seaboard is very damp.



I will wrap it up quickly this evening.


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has largely remained the same in the short term, with the easterly winds with showers and thunderstorms continuing over the eastern third of QLD and dipping into NSW through the remainder of the weekend and into next week. The trough responsible will move west bringing the moisture west with it and this will lead to the showers and thunderstorms moving southwest through NSW and into VIC ahead of a weak trough mid to late week. Now where the thunderstorms form, they will still be heavy and carry the high risk of flash flooding but the overall spread of rainfall is reduced through this week. Models become a little more divergent in their guidance with some sharpening another trough over QLD, other models placing it over SA. As I have alluded to, the next more widespread rainfall is likely from the 5/6 of December for the nation. Keep watching this period and we will see how it tracks.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

The trough in the east is expected to move west to be over central and northern NSW and extend through southern and central inland QLD and wrap into the northern tropics. Widespread showers and thunderstorms developing along and to the east of this trough with severe thunderstorms possible. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is the main risk along with damaging winds. The storms over the northern tropics could also be gusty.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

The trough remains near stationary on Monday but could extend to southern inland NSW during the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms from about the ACT north along and to the east of the trough through NSW and QLD wrapping back into the tropics. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding once again over the eastern inland of NSW and QLD.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

The trough begins to dig further south Tuesday and deepen, that will be in response to an inactive trough approaching from SA during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may increase dramatically as the process happens with extensive showers and thunderstorms developing, locally severe. All modes of severe weather is possible over a wide area in the east. The usual storms over the north will continue.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

The trough over the east will deepen further on Wednesday with a trough from SA merging with the eastern trough and moving the feature along. The extra wind shear and dynamic support will assist in thunderstorms developing for much of VIC, NSW, ACT and QLD during the day, with the higher chance of severe weather from eastern VIC through the ACT through to NSW and QLD. All modes of severe weather possible The northern tropics remaining active with thunderstorms being drawn southwest through the Kimberly towards the Pilbara.

Riverine Flood Risk

The residual rainfall and the observations through many of the river systems inland mean this flooding will take a while to leave. I have travelled through many of the catchment areas of NSW in the past couple of days and over northeast VIC today and there have been many areas in flood. The Tarcutta Flood Plains are a good example of wet catchments being overwhelmed by a lot of rainfall. The east of the nation is sitting ducks for widespread flooding throughout the coming months.

DATA


00z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Settled and stagnant pressure pattern for the majority of us this week as high pressure tries to take control of the weather and it will over southern WA and through the interior and SA with a good amount of sunshine and temperatures on the climb. This will be the warmest and driest run of weather for this region this Spring....as it finishes. For VIC, your weather is stable and dry until mid week, the humidity that is lingering over eastern Australia is set revisit from mid week reintroducing thundery weather. The weather over the east is showery, thunderstorms developing on and east of a trough. Some of these storms will pack a punch and while we are not seeing the widespread rainfall forecasts as per the last week, the images below are a guide as per my rainfall forecast, as to what you can reasonably expect. Some locations may see renewed flooding from thunderstorms alone. The thundery weather peaks during mid to late week over the east before the trough moves back into the east of QLD. But it will work its way west again through next weekend, and from there, it may spark the next major rainfall event. The tropics, looking more like November with a good coverage of rainfall and thunderstorm activity to continue, this spreading southwards through the first week of December. The west, your rainfall will return in the medium term as well with a deepening heat trough.

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Note the moisture ain't going anywhere over the eastern inland and will continue to build throughout this period. The drier weather bias over the south and west will eventually be eroded away as the high to the south slips further south, opening the door for more easterly winds to return nationwide, the troughs embedded within this flow to become more unstable and tap into moisture eventually dawn out of the east and north leading to an increased coverage of rainfall.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is largely out east but that trough will move west mid week and be captured by another trough moving out of SA, so expect to see an increase in storm coverage mid to late week. The west remains dry as does much of SA. The trough then hangs up over the eastern inland of the nation with a deep moist easterly flow continuing to feed the trough, more storms and more showers to continue right through this period. The tropics also looking more active than normal for this time of year and with the current climate, that is to be expected.

00z CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is a little different to the GFS on the CMC with heavier rainfall developing for SA. Will have to watch closely as this time of year can throw out systems that produce a lot of rainfall at very short notice.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days

Rainfall starts to deviate southwards from the first week of December and this should cover the nation as you can see above, with rainfall chances coming up.

Latest details on the week ahead coming up during Sunday morning and a look at the Seasons ahead into Winter 2022 tomorrow as well.


It has been hectic!!!!

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