A very active afternoon of weather for the southern and eastern parts of the nation as a trough continues to push north and east, helped along by a cold front passing through southeast parts of the nation.
Damaging winds, heavy rainfall and a lesser risk, large hail, is expected to be a feature this evening for many areas over eastern VIC and much of NSW before the trough begins to weaken overnight.
The remainder of the nation it is fairly quiet, the usual showers and storms up over northern Australia are about but likely to increase further during the week as the troughs up north start to deepen.
Heading into Christmas and the New Years, we are likely to see rainfall and thunderstorm activity increase with heavy falls developing, bringing an end to the high temperatures.
In the east, the showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger through this week coming with the trough bringing the wild weather over the south today, weakening and stalling out over the eastern inland, this supporting a humid and thundery period ahead.
For the remainder of the south and west, the weather should be mostly dry, benign and seasonal for the most part with a high pressure ridge with us for the majority of this week, this high not moving anywhere for the remainder of the outlook period. So dry weather and fairly boring weather in terms of rainfall/storm activity to come through for a while.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is contracting north and east throughout the eastern parts of the nation as a trough begins to lift north and the cold front attached moves east of Tasmania. The remainder of the south dry for a while now, with high pressure remaining in place for the majority of the next 10-15 days. The stagnant pressure pattern will remain in place meaning that where onshore winds develop in the east, expect a long duration of high humidity, rainfall and thunderstorm activity, so up over QLD and northern NSW, with periodic areas of showers and thunderstorms extending south into much of NSW and through the ACT as weak troughs drift through from the west. The north of the nation is looking wetter as we go, becoming very wet as the monsoonal flow increases from around Christmas onwards. Tropical lows are the wild card items on the board which will determine who gets the heaviest of the rainfall through the outlook period.
Rainfall Next 16 Days
Rainfall is expected to increase further over northern and eastern parts of the nation with a significant burst of tropical weather. Rain, becoming heavy at times with local flooding possible as the monsoonal weather begins to move southwards, a tropical low is also likely to form across the northern tropics enhancing the northwest flow and rainfall for some areas. For the east, rainfall likely to increase as a trough deepens over the inland of QLD and NSW and pulls moisture southwards from the tropics and feeds off the easterly winds to see the showers and storms increase further. A trough passing through the southeast during the end of the year may bring a more organised batch of showers and thunderstorms but the signals are not suggesting heavy falls for now, that looks to be happening more for NSW and QLD. The west looking drier, especially the southwest.
Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday
Thunderstorm Forecast Monday
Thunderstorms are forecast to contract north and east throughout the nation as a high noses in from the west overnight and during Monday. Stable air and a drier cooler airmass will extend into the central parts of NSW but stops there as the trough stalls out. So a stormy afternoon expected for QLD and through much the NT. The thundery weather will also pass through the Kimberly and into the northern interior of WA. Storms may be severe in multiple areas, with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main concern.
Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday
Thunderstorms will remain in the same zones during Tuesday as the trough in the east remains slow moving and stalls out. The storms over the eastern inland of QLD through northern NSW into the NT could turn severe, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main risks. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through the SWLD of WA where a weak inland trough is present.
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
Increasing humidity throughout the central and northern interior of the nation will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. A weak trough over SWLD of WA begins to shift further east and takes the isolated thunderstorm activity with it. The trough in the east will begin to shift south so scattered thunderstorms developing for much of southern QLD, NSW and the ACT.
DATA -More details in the video at the top to cut down your reading time tonight.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
The tropics will be the focus of the weather this week as it will dictate the rainfall and temperature spread as we go through Christmas and into New Years.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
Watch those elevated values over the northwest extending southeast and east once again. Near seasonal values elsewhere through southern and western parts of the nation.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days
More details in the video
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
More details in the video including a break down fly around the nation on what you can expect.
00Z Euro- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Rainfall is also increasing on the Euro for the end of the Christmas period, picking up on the moisture streaming south and southeast from the tropics. Watch the tropics this week!!
I will be travelling north tomorrow so no update in the morning and I will try and get an update out during the afternoon or evening (how long the process of getting through one state in this country to another is jumping through hoops! Wish me luck!) I will be on CST meaning that I will try to keep the updates coming as per usual.
Finally I am on holiday schedule this week and for the one following, I will still be around but as everyone is taking a breath, I need to take a breath too, to catch up with family. So while I will be here, it will not be as intense as the first 6 months.
Thank you for your support and chat to you from the NT tomorrow evening!