EVENING WEATHER UPDATE - NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT - SO NOW ATTENTION TURNS TO WHEN THE WEATHER FLIPS.

The weather is very quiet in the coming few days, it is giving me a chance to catch my breath and catch up on some other features and products I am working on so just a broad forecast this evening, you will have your state based forecasts from tomorrow through the week as per normal.


It is hard to find a shower across the nation today, they are about over the northeast of NSW and through parts of QLD and obviously over the tropics, but even there, the air has dried right out.


The weather is turning Summer like, finally! It has been such a cool Spring for many so having the warmer is not only pleasant, but aiding in the catchments drying out in the east and northeast after areas of flooding.


But it won't last forever and so I want to make that point, that this does not mean La Nina is not happening or not occurring, as many would state to me last year on social media, it was a non event, it will come in the New Year. So my advice for those living over the north and east is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best and let's hope that luck goes on our side as we move into January through April.


Lets take a look at the short term.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains lean through the coming week, with those scattered showers and thunderstorms about the east and north and high based showers and storms through interior parts of the west off and on this week. Scattered light showers may develop over the SWLD with the passage of a trough and or front mid week. That trough will then move east later next week into the weekend and bring about the chance of showers and thunderstorms for the eastern inland and begin to cycle of moisture return and the usual showers and thunderstorms over the eastern parts of QLD and then into the tropics as what you would see this time of year. The remainder of the period looks relatively seasonal for the nation, though trending drier for SA than what is normal. It does get wetter just outside of this period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

The thunderstorm activty over the east thins out a bit during Monday as the ridge strengthens over the region. The storms isolated along the ranges and contracts north through Cape York. The trough out west continues to fuel high based thunderstorms into western SA and much of inland WA. A few of these may clip the southwest of VIC as well. The heavier rainfall with thunderstorms can be found over the tropics. No severe weather expected

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

No change expected to the change sweeping through the southeast, in fact coverage may be a little more widespread than what I have drawn in here and will review later today or tomorrow. The north still with the routine showers and thunderstorms extending into the central parts of WA. The rest of the nation is stable with a fair amount of dry air.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are likely to turn more scattered over the southeast of NSW and the ACT with a good chance of a few severe storms, with some damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. High based storms are expected to continue over interior parts of WA and SA. The tropics seeing the routine showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls about.

DATA

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More details in the video.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

Note the unusually dry air over the northern parts of the nation being eroded by the moisture as we go through the week, so the heat levels not as excessive with the humidity levels down but the nation will warm as a whole towards the Summer time expectations with the departure of that moisture. However moisture will return from the latter part of the week into the weekend with a larger in feed of moisture through northern and eastern areas of the nation as well as another port of moisture feeding into a trough over WA. The weather is turning more unsettled and humid in the medium term as we round out the year.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Settled for much of the southeast inland for the coming 7-10 days with a nice dry airmass, though the humidity may return to the north and east from mid to late week and over the western interior as we go through this week.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

This is likely to be more reflective of the rainfall distribution this week, with more storms across the nation given the moisture profile improving as we go, and next weekend we could see more rainfall and thunderstorm activity spread across the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A little too dry I suspect.

00Z GFS Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

The ensemble data is much wetter than the deterministic run above and so expect there to be some more rainfall added to the forecasts as we go along this week, and that is not just for eastern and southeast areas.

I will have more on the modelling and all things rainfall in the short, medium and longer term coming up after 9pm EDT.