An active weather pattern continues for the southern parts of the nation, some of that sweeping into NSW at times over the coming week. We have already seen the residual moisture and colder air aloft trigger scattered showers even with the ridging not too far away to the north, so the air ahead o the front coming tomorrow may drop more widespread falls than what models are indicating.
We have a cold surge coming in behind this system which may lead to severe frosts and a freeze Thursday morning once we lose the southerly winds and skies clear, that could be a whopper frost and a high impact event in itself.
Then hot on the heels of that, a low pressure system is anticipated to move out of SA and weaken as it passes over inland NSW. That will bring up rainfall chances now for western and southern inland parts of the state, some patchier falls further north also possible.
Rapidly approaching behind the low will be a pair of cold fronts for the weekend, with a very deep low centered off the coast of TAS. Now this system has the hallmarks of being an epic snow producer for Alpine areas. It also has the potential to produce severe weather in terms of damaging winds throughout a large portion of southern and eastern Australia - it is 5 days out and I want to get to Wednesday to see if the intensity holds on the upcoming modelling. But a HEADS UP for everyone living in NSW for the possibility of damaging winds this weekend.
Taking the modelling out further you can see that the frontal weather eases as the long wave moves east and a high digs in over the eastern inland, however more frontal weather is quick to push the high away, with rainfall returning to southeast states, but we may just be a little too far north for the rainfall from those systems in the day 9-10 window.
Lets have a look at the data.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The surface pressure pattern and rainfall analysis for the coming 2 weeks again follows the medium term forecasting I have been offering for this period, westerly winds persist to the south and drier hotter air to the north. NSW sits in a zone where we are south enough to get the impacts of the stronger frontal systems passing through every few days but clear out where coastal areas struggle to find a dry day. So for now you can see the front tomorrow, a low later this week, frontal weather into the weekend, clearing next week but more fronts and dynamic weather persist in the forecast packages in the medium term during the latter part of the month and early August.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall for the next 10 days looks fairly similar to this morning, a touch less rainfall and intensity in the front passing through over the weekend may drop the rainfall totals away for the region if that continues, but it has been flipping and flopping like a fish out of water on the intensity front so we wait and see, but there could be some decent rainfall with that. In the short term, watch that low pressure system mid week, as there could be a few surprise falls for the western inland of the state, which would be very welcome. The further north you go through the state, the less rainfall you will see and vice versa as you head south.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
A fast flow pattern continues, the model guidance is largely unchanged so forecasts hold from this morning with a chance of some moderate to heavy rainfall accumulations for many locations along the southeast and southern end of the GDR into the Snowy/Alpine areas west of Canberra. Next week you can see the next wave of low pressure off WA approaching quicker than GFS which could mean that the rainfall may come back quicker next week, or some cases I have seen in the past, the frontal weather does not slow down across the southern states. That will keep the same pattern in place for the next 10 days under such guidance and the weather will remain largely unchanged.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall is connected to the westerly wind regime. The dry spell continues for the east coast in the lee of the divide, however some coastal showers may develop in the wake of the cold front Wednesday in southerly winds. Then the low pressure comes through and again there could be some surprise falls. Then the frontal weather over the weekend will bring cold gusty and showery weather for the southern half of NSW with the intensity and scale of that system dictating whether the northern half of NSW can get some falls again.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
I have left rainfall for the region unchanged from this morning with there not enough change in the overall pattern to shift rainfall forecasts one way or the other. But hopefully some better guidance in the morning and I will have fresh charts then. So the persistence forecast continues in light of the current data. But I do think the area bound by Cobar to Broken Hill through to Hay, may get a few surprise falls later this week with the low moving closer.
And a reminder that severe frosts and a freeze likely for Thursday morning could bring some damage to crops and stress to stock and also cause some interruptions to your domestic water supply if you are off the town water with pipes freezing a high chance.
Frost Risk Forecast for Thursday morning.
Freeze Risk Forecast for Thursday morning.
More weather details to come and a quick update later this evening.