EVENING WEATHER PICTURE - A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND SLOWLY WARM UP NATIONALLY.

Still have rain lingering over the east and southeast of NSW and VIC into TAS today, the rest of the nation has been settled but cooler and breezy in a strong westerly flow over the east and central areas. By contrast it is lovely in the west, warmer easterly winds sunny skies and above average temperatures.


The dry air through the southern parts of the nation is expected to clear out the northern tropics, something that is rare at this time of year, having a dry surge make it this far north. That will lead to the last period of dry searing heat before the moisture folds in from the north mid week.


That warmer weather up north and through the west will move east later this week, high pressure leading to settled weather nationally for a good chunk of mid November which was forecast well ahead of schedule. A chance to dry out thankfully.


The weather turning more unsettled from later next week over the western interior, over the tropical north and the east coast with the return of onshore winds. The southern and southeast inland remaining dry until next weekend once we see moisture shoot off into a trough passing through the region.


At this time, there are no severe weather events in the coming week.


Satellite Imagery

Thick cloud with areas of rain and cold temperatures starting to contract east through southern NSW and cloudy breezy weather continues up to the QLD border. Otherwise the trough that brought the severe weather can be seen flaring thunderstorms offshore the QLD coast and over the northern tropics. The drier air will surge through the Top End and a nice dry nation is expected away from the southeast during the next few days. This satellite is more in line with the weather of late August.

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Quiet nation rainfall wise for at least the next 5 days. The weather is expected to remain quiet under dry air, cooler stable air over the east and southeast and the ridging of high pressure moving through. The moisture does return over the north and west of the nation later this week and over the east coast with onshore winds, so expect to see showers return to forecasts in these regions. However I am anticipating the wet weather to return from next weekend over the southeast and east. The coverage remains to be seen, but no major rainfall is expected at this time. But watching closely. It is wetter to end the month nationally, and again watching the moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Nationally it is cool and stable, the main area of thunder will be over southeast Australia with a cold front passing through during the morning, introducing a cold and unstable airmass. Small hail and gusty winds are possible with showers and thunderstorms.

DATA


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The low pressure system is on the way out to the east but a cold front is on the approach to the southeast tonight with showers increasing, local hail and August temperatures for Sunday. Very windy weather is expected through the southeast and eastern areas of the nation with temperatures coming down through NSW and QLD. Snowfalls are also likely for the Alpine areas. In contrast the west and north are hot with rare November dry air sweeping through the tropics. The weather eases over the southeast early next week, frost is also a chance for southern inland areas of the nation during Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The warm weather over the north and west will make it to the southeast and east during mid to late week ahead of a developing trough which brings the next chance of showers and storms sweeping the nation. Over the east onshore winds could bring showers back to eastern QLD and NSW and storms return the tropics as the moisture returns in a northeast flow. Medium term still throwing up the tropical mischief northwest of WA moving into the nation, whether the system crosses into Australia or stays offshore remains to be seen. But the impact likely to be the same with a soupy wet and unsettled spell developing for the end of the month.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The PW anomalies are decreasing below average for much of the nation including the tropics which is highly unusual for November. But they do return towards average and then move above the average as we move into the end of the week and with that, increased rainfall chances are likely for northern and western Australia before it spreads eastwards. Model madness is continuing around the placement of moisture with the low pressure systems but watch this space as I do suspect active returns from next weekend onwards.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The deeper moisture values are set to return to large parts of the north and east of the nation via onshore easterly winds for QLD and northeast winds for the NT. The tropical mischief offshore WA will also infuse the jet stream with moisture and help to promote inland rainfall increasing with low pressure forming. Where and when that happens is yet to be determined.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

This will continue to chop and change but the message is the same as this morning, becoming drier through the early part of this week nationwide, we take a breath and then the rainfall slowly returns through northern areas, along the east coast and with a pressure trough emerging from WA and linking into tropical moisture. The rainfall increasing from next weekend through the end of the month, so that is the window to watch as I have been explaining during the past week while the severe weather was unfolding.

Stay safe in the flood zones throughout QLD and NSW, the flood waters are heading down stream so stay up to date with the warnings this week. We are sitting ducks in the east for major flooding throughout the remainder of Spring and Summer and we got away with less rainfall than forecast so we have been lucky.


I will have a brief AM weather wrap followed by your December 2021 and Summer/Autumn Outlook tomorrow.