Not much change in modelling with a vigorous westerly bringing mountain rainfall and showers to the plains, but dry weather for the coast. A colder change developing from Friday will sweep the southeast with a shift to cold and wintry conditions with more moderate rainfall expected.

We dry out over the weekend with a dry colder southwesterly moving in, a high also ridging in later, so the weather improving over the inland from Saturday afternoon but more likely from Sunday.

Next week the next wave of moisture sweeps in from the northwest of the nation and there are increasing signals for that to link up with moisture to bring the next batch of rainfall.

Lets dive straight into the data sets from the Euro and GFS who are useful to contrast and compare.

00z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

As mentioned the surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution is largely unchanged across the nation for the coming 4 days. The moderate to heavy falls will favour those areas exposed to a westerly wind regime. Next week is still where the models diverge. There is a weak trough keeping the showers going for parts of SA, VIC and southern NSW but generally dry for many early next week. A stronger wave looks to capture a large moisture source from the Indian Ocean mid next week and that has a high chance of bringing further rainfall to inland areas.

00z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 days

Fairly good agreement over the coming 4-5 days, though the GFS is wetter than Euro for much of the southeast so we will see how that stacks up by Saturday evening. We will come back to that. Next week a stronger trough keeps the showery weather going over the southeast, though NSW returns to dry for the most part. Then the frontal weather increases and links up with moisture once again so a high chance of inland rainfall returning. Note that major rainfall event at the end of the run is unlikely to look like this, BUT with higher heat developing over the northern parts of the nation, this type of weather is expected in August.

00z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days

Good agreement on the moisture profile over the coming 4 days through the nation with that dry surge set to reset the atmosphere from Saturday and that surge seeing a drier southeasterly push through the eastern inland. Showers should clear the inland and back to frosty starts and sunny weather from Sunday over much of the inland. Next week the moisture does return off the WA coast and this may set up the next major rainfall event.

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 days

As per Euro, very good agreement in the moisture profile over the coming few days, but then the model diverges and brings back frontal weather earlier which links into moisture over the southern ocean. Then the moisture surges in from the northwest later in the period and as you can see, very humid air could be lifted by a major inland trough. That would be a prolific rainfall producer.

00z Euro - Rainfall - Next 10 days

Rainfall is lighter for the east and south than the GFS tonight, but that will be conditional upon how the fronts rotate through the east so it is not right or wrong, it is one of those things where we can use it as a guide to seeing where the rainfall will be more frequent, but streams of showers and storms will ultimately decide where the heavier falls occur. Anywhere exposed to the westerly and then southwesterly is in line for a soaking in the coming few days.

00z GFS - Rainfall - Next 10 days

GFS much wetter than Euro tonight with plenty of moisture being fully utilised in the passages of troughs and fronts in the next 3-4 days. Then the showers contract back to the coast with conditions not really clearing at all now if this is correct over coastal SA, VIC and TAS. NSW will get a chance to breathe with the drier air under high pressure but keep an eye on that moisture returning later in the period as that could be lifted into inland rainfall this time next week at the earliest.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

So rainfall largely unchanged though taking values away from the northwest inland as the cloud band moves east. Rain ongoing over the GDR tonight and through Friday night or Saturday with 30-50mm possible in some locations. Showers increasing over southern and central inland areas from Thursday afternoon and through to Saturday. 10-20mm possible. Otherwise we watch next week how the moisture continues to build to the west and southwest of NSW and I will address this more in the charting later tonight.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall largely unchanged for the coming 3-4 days and then we dry out over the weekend. Flood watches are in place for some river systems.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall largely unchanged from this morning with flood watches currently in place for some parts of southeast NSW west of the divide.

Snowfalls for the next 10 days

Check out the latest details on the snowfalls here.

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