Not much change in the modelling for the weather coming up over the next 10 days.

A vigorous westerly bringing mountain rainfall and showers to the plains, but dry weather for the coast. A colder change developing from Friday will sweep the southeast with a shift to cold and wintry conditions with more moderate rainfall expected.

Further frontal weather now looks to creep into the westerly flow as a high drifts to our north on Sunday which may bring further showery weather to southern and mountain areas, snowfalls to continue in this flow with cold air hanging on.

Next week the next wave of moisture sweeps in from the northwest of the nation and there are increasing signals for that to link up with moisture to bring the next batch of rainfall.

But some modelling wants to keep the westerly frontal barrage going.

Lets dive straight into the data sets from the Euro and GFS who are useful to contrast and compare.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pattern is largely unchanged for the southeast with rounds of showers and storms and colder weather on the way. A larger burst of rainfall expected later Thursday after a warm day, then periods of rain, hail and thunder with a colder squally southwest shift during Friday into Saturday with a showery Sunday looking likely now for southern VIC. Another front possible Monday more showery weather possible for southern areas then we keep an eye on that frontal weather coming out over WA with more widespread rainfall possibly coming back for those north of the divide.

GFS 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

Similar spread to the Euro, however it is more aggressive with the frontal weather hanging on with colder air through the weekend so will have to monitor trends for the clearance over the coming days. GFS brings another front in early next week with cold air in toe, that may keep the showers going and extend them back over the northern side of the divide, again watch that over the next few days. Next week looks wintry with inland rainfall likely to return later in the sequence as the moisture drifts in from WA ahead of the next wave of frontal weather.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Values Anomalies for the coming 10 days

Deep moisture supply running through the jetstream brings bands of rain through the interior, the deepest moisture is now bypassing us to the north, however the westerly wind regime also is moist, and combined with the warmer air, showers tomorrow and with the cold front overnight into Friday, the rainfall could be quite productive. As you can see more moisture surges in from the northwest of the nation mid next week, lifting inland rainfall chances for the medium, as we have been tracking.

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Values Anomalies for the coming 16 days

Similar to the Euro, however is more aggressive with the moisture content in the westerly wind regime. So the model is wetter in response to this. More moisture surging through the westerly wind regime next week will keep the showers going as winds veer into the northwest mid next week, then that moisture plume comes in from WA with inland rainfall chances increasing.

Euro 00z - Rainfall for the coming 10 days

This run of the Euro not as wet as the GFS tonight but anywhere exposed to a westerly could see more rainfall than what is advertised with the showery masses quite efficeint rainfall producers. Stream showers that set up in the southwest to westerly stream could be quite heavy east of Melbourne through east central areas and West Gippsland with 40mm possible. Then the showers will contract back to the coast in westerly winds by Monday. More rainfall next week coming from the northwest knocks on the inlands door at the end of next week but the timing will change further.

GFS 00z - Rainfall for the coming 10 days

GFS is much wetter than the Euro and keeps the showery periods going for much longer. More rainfall coming in later in the run with the moisture out of the west. I would read the heavier rainfall possible at the end of the run with that major inland low as a signal that the wet weather will persist to the end of the month.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021.

Productive rainfall developing tomorrow with showers increasing from the west, then a band of rain sweeping in with a developing cold front that is currently southwest of WA racing east. More rainfall over the weekend, with those heavier falls east of Melbourne, then follow up frontal weather next week could be productive with moisture surging in from the northwest.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021.

Heavy falls over the Alpine areas will fall mostly as snow from Thursday night and descend to under 1000m during Friday with heavy falls likely. Flood watches are in place for areas just over the border in the Tumut Valley but read that as a sign of things to come for northeast VIC into the coming weeks.

Snowfalls for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021

Snowfalls heavy at times this weekend - read the full update here.

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