Models still struggling with some components of this complex weather event, with the timing of a cold front through the southeast which is likely to propel this trough bringing rain and storms to the east, still up in the air.

Modelling has moved more into agreement of bringing half to a months worth of rainfall to inland QLD and possibly along the Capricornia coast down to the Northern Rivers of NSW with showers increasing ahead of the trough moving through with periods of rain and thunder during Friday and Saturday.

The damp period, thanks to the SAM moving into positive territory and assisting a strong high to sit further south, pumping moisture into the interior of QLD.

QLD Satellite Imagery - Cloud developing over inland areas in association with a weak trough and moisture streaming in from the east in onshore winds, that have just started to freshen through today. Showers over the east coast will increase and this will lead to further deeper moisture moving west into the trough which will remain slow moving during the coming 24 hours. But the western inland can expect some showers and thunderstorms developing in the coming day.

Lets look at the modelling first before rainfall totals.

Euro 00z run - Surface Pressure Pattern and rainfall distribution. Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.

Widespread rainfall expected along the trough that amplifies when a cold front rolls through the southeast. It clears offshore by Sunday and drier weather returns, the rainfall could be heavy at times over southern inland QLD and through the central interior as well before hitting the coast with soaking falls possible Friday through Sunday morning. Note the next batch of rainfall at the end of the run. Interesting signal.

Euro 00z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days. Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.

Soaking and beneficial rainfall for those that want it through central, southern and eastern QLD and northern inland NSW, most of this falling between now and Sunday then another event breaks out at the end of the run for western NSW and QLD with another trough which is low confidence.

GFS 00z run - Surface Pressure Pattern and rainfall distribution. Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.

Fairly similar rainfall timing through the eastern inland with GFS but the placement of the cold outbreak is further south so less dynamics that the Euro run, and it clears the rainfall east quicker with drier air into coastal areas by Saturday evening. Still good rainfall likely for the eastern inland.

GFS 00z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days. Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.

Rainfall with moderate to heavy falls over parts of QLD and NSW but the spread of rainfall is not as widespread as Euro, as the cold outbreak in the GFS run is less dynamic and the atmosphere is not being supported to bring the heavy rainfall that Euro is suggesting. The low confidence forecast I am afraid continues.

The rainfall charts.

Rainfall next 10 days - Zoomed in region where heaviest rainfall may occur.

Widespread rainfall with heavy falls possibly along the coast with days of showers before the main rain band arrives later Friday and through the weekend with moderate to heavy soaking falls. There could be some spot falls between Thargomindah and St George that exceed 50mm but it is very tricky to draw these convective downpours so I am spreading out the falls a tad. The general rule, the further east you go, the heavier and more concentrated your rainfall.

Rainfall for the next 10 days. Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.

A broader view showing rainfall numbers coming up through the QLD and NSW coasts, north of Port Macquarie. The heaviest of the rain has contracted a little further northeast tonight through NSW but still moderate rainfall likely through Friday and into Saturday before the cold dry airmass arrives on Saturday afternoon clearing the moisture north and east. Another event is possible later next week with further rainfall spreading in from the west.

Rainfall for the next 10 days. Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.

Not much change in QLD from this morning, with heavier falls now being drawn in for the east coast south of Mackay with the rain band tending heavy over the weekend as it moves offshore with a few storms. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible with thunderstorms mainly east of a line from Thargomindah to Longreach where 50mm may fall but pinning down where that is likely ahead of time is impossible. Rain will clear from the west during Saturday morning and lifting off the coast Saturday night.

Thunderstorm charts will be issued tomorrow for Thursday and Friday with this event for the eastern inland, where there could be some heavy falls possible and flash flooding is not out of the question.

Do you need more weather information? Email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org where I am currently in discussion with many farmers surrounding tailored forecasts. Let me know how I CAN help you.

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