EVENING UPDATE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

  • Showers and areas of snowfalls over higher ground in the southeast and east easing this evening as the air warms and the pressure begins to rise.

  • Clearing for Sunday over much of the inland.

  • Rain breaks out over WA this week with moderate rainfall developing with a large plume of moisture heading southeast

  • Follow up rainfall on the cards for the southern and eastern states once again early in the week with the potential for a major winter outbreak later this week.

National Satellite Imagery

Areas of low and middle level cloud in the east producing areas of rain and snowfalls for central and southern inland NSW this afternoon and tonight. Showers increasing over central VIC with local hail and thunder for the region tonight, easing during Sunday. Showers and low cloud easing over coastal SA. High cloud over WA is in association with a trough sitting offshore. Dry and clear elsewhere with a hot airmass under an upper high though the cooler air is filtering north.

Temperatures

Colder weather is filtering north through the eastern inland with a cold and squally airmass riding along a final trough that is pushing northeast. Areas of rain and colder weather will ease later. But the temperatures are well below average as expected this week. Up north the dry southeasterly surge is making it's way northwest, so the numbers have come down through inland QLD and southern NT today, that will reach Tennant and the areas towards the eastern inland of WA Sunday. Warming up over the southwest of WA on Sunday before more rainfall.

Snowfalls have been recorded in many locations today from Canberra through the southern highlands with rain areas continuing. The air is warming and the rainfall increasing once again this afternoon as another trough passes through inland NSW. Showers and hail with cold southerly winds keeping much of southeastern Australia below 10C mid afternoon. But the weather is warming through central and western parts of SA as the airstream moderates and warmer air wraps around the western periphery of the low.

Radar

Areas of rain with light falls through NSW continuing to work it's way east tonight but will begin to clear into Sunday morning. Showers, some heavy with hail and thunder along a trough and southwest shift tonight. Some of those falls could be heavy at times east of Melbourne. Showers are easing over SA with the falls decreasing.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 17th of July 2021.

Rainfall continues to adopt the winter time pattern with no change in the coverage in the modelling tonight, so those areas who have been damp this week will continue to see rainfall, those areas that remained dry this week, more of the same. Keeping an eye on that moderate to high impact weather event on the Euro for later in the period which may enhance rainfall for the next weekend.

00z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 17th of July 2021.

Showers and wintry weather once again confined to the southern parts of the nation with passing troughs and fronts over the coming week. There is still a chance of a dynamic and severe weather event for the southeastern parts of the nation with a deep low this time next week, but before then, we have another upper trough and then a weakening low pressure system and moisture to get through before then.

00z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 17th of July 2021.

Largely unchanged guidance tonight, the event for the southeast later in the week is not as severe but GFS has lifted the intensity tonight. Something to watch if you live over the southeast. For now the wettest weather will be in the west to start the week and the east again to end the week. Dry over the north.


Model discussion and analysis for the week - Valid Saturday 17th of July 2021.


00z GFS Upper Air Pattern at 500mb/18000ft for the next 16 days - Valid Saturday 17th of July 2021.

The westerly wave pattern continues however the wavy flow is retreating a little further south next week. That may allow the moisture over the Indian Ocean to drift further southeast with significant falls developing later in the month. There are waves of low pressure to end the month and to kick off August. That is good, especially for those wanting rainfall thanks to the moisture that is wafting around from the northwest through southeast. The weather looks to remain largely unchanged over the north and east with the upper high in place. Seasonal temperatures are expected for the coming two weeks, with bursts of colder weather over the south and warmer than average weather in the north but nothing too anomalous for this time of year.

00z GFS Surface Pressure and Rainfall Distribution for the next 16 days - Valid Saturday 17th of July 2021.

A few systems to watch under the wavy upper flow. The upper trough may link into some moisture bringing a burst of rainfall through southeastern inland SA, VIC and NSW with the best of the rainfall with that feature early next week confined to the coastal areas. A weakening low bringing light to moderate rainfall for western and central SA, and lighter falls for northern VIC and western NSW during mid week, then a stronger system which could bring a larger area of rainfall anticipated along that feature.


00z GFS Precipitable Water Values for the next 16 days - Valid Saturday 17th of July 2021.

Unchanged PW values through the coming two weeks with elevated values expected for southern Australia along each of the waves of low pressure passing through and the north remaining drier than normal keeping things seasonally dry and hot, that warmer weather drifting into southern and central QLD at times. The pattern may begin to flip as we get into August for these regions and rainfall chances coming back for QLD.

State updates coming up in the hour!


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