Very quickly, the latest data sets still providing reasonable rainfall odds (as you saw in the national rainfall wrap this evening.)
A closer look at the state bay state for the coming 4 days.
Rain developing from the west initially on Tuesday night into Wednesday with thick cloud will be light and patchy with most falls below 5mm throughout NSW and that will extend back into eastern SA where the cloud band that has rained itself for a number of days further west will likely run out of steam along the trough. That trough though is still not weak, and will run into better moisture later Wednesday.
Once the trough enters the west of NSW it will hit a better moisture profile and more rainfall will break out with the chance of some thunder. Moderate falls are likely from about Hay through Condobolin to about Narrabri but this will be pinned down further as we get closer, to see where the moisture drawn in from the northeast flow gets to in it's journey west over the next 36hrs.
The rain will persist on Thursday with moderate falls, locally heavy over the Snowy Mountains and Alpine Areas before the rain eases later and clears during Friday.
Some patchy rain may linger over northern areas during Friday before clearing into QLD later in the day as well as offshore.
Widespread rain developing from the west later Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, with the best of it falling through western areas, though mainly light falls for now. Falls of 5-10mm likely for many areas with that, lighter falls perhaps over the Mallee. Rain will struggle to penetrate south of the Great Dividing Range through South Central and West Gippsland areas due to the rain shadow caused by strong northerly winds.
By Wednesday evening we may start to see the trough deepen a little bit over northern Victoria with rain increasing through southern NSW into northeast VIC later and persisting through Thursday morning with heavy falls possible over the Alpine areas. Flood watches may be issued in association with this.
The front and low will move eastwards during Thursday and weaken on Friday with showers, hail and thunder along that path through southeast SA through western VIC and into central VIC before we see conditions ease.
Fine by the weekend with cold starts as high pressure builds overhead.
Rain developing from the west later tonight and spreading east during Tuesday with moderate to heavy falls in the west, but as we see the system coming into central and eastern SA, the moisture will begin to thin out as the trough lifts away from the dynamic forcing caused by the low pressure which will become stationary over the Bight and then progress east.
Rain will be moderate about coastal areas with the low moving through to the south of the state. Local hail and thunder also possible with gale force winds. So totals over the coming 4 days will be best over coastal areas.
Patchy rainfall with the lead band of cloud with see light falls for some of the Ag areas, but something is better than nothing. 2-10mm is fair, but there is a chance that this could still change.
Conditions ease by Friday as high pressure moves in and begins to ease the weather. Another rainfall event needs watching later in the weekend over the west, with modelling not handling that quite well.
Rain developing over southern and southwest QLD later Wednesday with falls generally less than 3mm at this stage as the northern most aspect of the trough grazes the region. It will be warm and cloudy in a breezy northwester.
The trough over the inland of NSW begins to tap into better moisture during Wednesday night and Thursday, and that may be the case as well for southern QLD with rain becoming more widespread with some thunder. Where that sets up for QLD remains to be seen but the signals are the further south you go, the better the chances of more meaningful rainfall.
Falls over 10mm over the coming week will be largely confined along the Great Dividing Range with the trough potentially lingering over the southeast later Friday into Saturday before clearing Sunday.
We have seen different looks at rainfall opportunities for QLD in response to the low and trough being stronger through the southeast of the nation, now that is looking more unlikely, the dynamics are not there to support widespread rainfall for QLD at this stage, but this system is an interesting sign of what is potentially to come in the next few months under these climatic conditions.
You can see those impacts with showers drawn in over the NT with higher humidity values once again.
The Precipitable Water charts paint the picture of the inland rainfall chances to keep coming, so even if you don't get the high falls that may have been promised in some of the modelling in recent days, there are more opportunities for all regions coming into July and there after.
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