EVENING NATIONAL WEATHER WRAP - LOOKING AT THE TWO RAIN AND STORM EVENTS - AND A PEEK INTO LATE OCT.

This is a volatile period of weather, and the modelling as most of you are aware of, is equally as volatile making it tricky to forecast in the short term, I was hoping for some better guidance by now, but it is back to old fashioned forecasting now.


PATTERN.

Plenty happening in the coming few days as we track multiple troughs through from west to east, each bringing rainfall and thunderstorm risks, more broadly over Central Australia but more widespread over the eastern states, clipping the southeast and southern parts of the nation.



The north no change in the signal for an over active build up in the next 10 days and the west of the nation looking to turn quite cool from early in the week with a southwest change following a strong cold front, which ultimately spices the weather up over the east into mid/late week once again.


The risk of flooding is increasing through the second half of October through to the end of November for the southeast inland too.

FORECAST


Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is largely unchanged from this morning, HOWEVER, the forecast confidence is absolutely atrocious and I have not seen such poor modelling in about a year. So for those living in the east, pay attention to forecasts during tomorrow and Monday as they will change. For the SWLD where the confidence is higher, showers developing for Monday but lasting a short time. That system will spawn the next rainfall event for southern and eastern Australia and you guessed it, with low confidence. It is that time of year where systems passing through will surprise some areas, and annoy others. Over the north, an active period in the build up, most communities hearing the thunder roar and rainfall come down for the first time in a while.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday night into Sunday

Thunderstorms are possible tonight through SA and VIC, moving into parts of western NSW and QLD. Mid level thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail risks possible over central and southern inland NSW tonight. These may continue into Sunday morning over the southeast of NSW and the ACT before rolling north ahead of a southerly change. Heavy rainfall, damaging winds and possibly some hail about with the taller storms, but that is rather a low risk. Over QLD, the storms could be gusty with some moderate to heavy falls leading to flash flooding through the Channel Country tonight before moving east during Sunday. Over the north, thunderstorms could be gusty at times, with brief heavy rainfall. Storms over SA today will push east overnight.

Damaging Winds Risk Sunday

Hail Risk Risk Sunday

Flash Flood Risk Sunday

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Wednesday

Thunderstorms could become quite strong during Wednesday with the approach of a low pressure system and leading trough. This will run into the left over moisture and bands of showers and storms will likely rotate through the southeast during mid week. These at this stage carry a 15% of turning severe during Wednesday afternoon

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

The severe thunderstorm risk does move east through NSW and QLD with a trough as the low begins to move through VIC. Turning winds in the atmosphere may support deeper convection over the eastern inland promoting strong to severe storms, with gusty winds, large hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

Flood Risk Next 6 Weeks

The flood risk as outlined over the southeast is of concern through from now until the end of November. Please prepare for not only rainfall but if in a low lying area that is prone to spring flooding, understand that excessive rainfall is possible during this period.

Temperature Anomalies This Week - WA.

The cooler start to Spring continues for the west this week, though temperatures should start to recover later next week. Will be watching for frost trends in the middle of the week as high pressure forms. Conditions finally warm up from Thursday!

DATA - Refer to the video for more details


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 2 Weeks

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks


GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks THIS EVENING

EDIT - Here is the Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days - 627pm

More details to come tomorrow morning and a look at your state based forecasts coming up by lunch time.