EVENING MODELS AND THE RAINFALL GUIDE ACROSS ALL AGENCIES

Lets take a look at the full suite of models this evening and where they place the rain and how they handle the events across the nation.


FLOOD RISKS

The flood risk over the east may be expanded further through VIC if the current trend of rainfall increasing over VIC and SA continues.

SHORT TERM

The agreement in the shorter term models is very good, with rainfall commencing from tomorrow and persisting through to the weekend for QLD, NSW and VIC. The rainfall coverage is increasing in the other global models below for SA and this needs to be watched in coming days as we get better guidance in real time. The real time data from the upper air network is very important and this is where the forecast confidence increases. So expect numbers to move around still.


ICON - Rainfall Next 5 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

I think the weather is too dry for SA on this model.

UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - LOW CHANCE.

Too dry for SA - rainfall over NSW is convective but the ignition is too far east.

LONG TERM

I have covered off GFS and Euro in your state based forecasts. The CMC is showing heavy rainfall for parts of VIC, NSW and QLD, with flooding possible if those falls verify this week. Good rainfall comes back through SA now, with falls heavy in the east and southeast districts. Most models have increased rainfall for SA which is interesting. The low working it's way through the east is being handled differently across the models, the GFS and CMC are slower in passing it through with the trough bringing an extra day of rainfall for the eastern inland, the Euro is faster. This will impact rainfall accumulation. I am leaning with GFS and CMC. Rainfall more extensive on these models for QLD and WA which I think is the right solution and the tropics wake up as well.


CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Rainfall has increased for SA, not as much as the other models but it is trending in the right direction. 1-3 inches of rainfall likely on and west of the divide through NSW, probably a bit too dry for the northwest of NSW and far western QLD.

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

This gets a moderate rating for the consistency in highlighting the heavy rainfall over 100mm for the GDR in VIC and NSW which is where topographic rainfall will be running high. Also increases rainfall over SA and has the tropics a little more active than other models. The rainfall is heavily convective.

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Also in line with ACCESS in highlighting the heavier rainfall over the GDR and the model screaming convective rainfall with severe thunderstorms in the mix. The rainfall also increasing over SA but lighter over WA. It scrapes through with a moderate rating but only just.

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - HIGH CHANCE

Been the most consistent out of all models in rainfall and has increased falls over the nation, especially for parts of SA.

ENSEMBLE DATA

No real change in the guidance from this morning in the broader data sets, with good agreement across all three major players this evening, so we now need to watch trends in the observations tomorrow and see where the storms fire to verify rainfall forecasting.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - HIGH CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

Only moderate as it has less rainfall on the median but many members side with the GFS and CMC with increased rainfall over SA.

CLIMATE RANGE

The longer term modelling for those looking into harvest is wet. The resolution and skill accuracy is poor so treat this with a grain of salt but look at this more of trend rather than grabbing the pen and writing down your rainfall amount in the coming 6 weeks. IT WILL CHANGE.


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - LOW CHANCE

More updates from 7am - see you then and thank you for your patience today with the blog being down for 30 minutes.

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