EVENING MODEL WRAP TEMPLATE

Latest data sets are in. Lets take a look.


SHORT TERM


00z ICON Rainfall - Next 5 days - HIGH CHANCE

Quiet five days of weather across the nation bar a few showers about the southeast with a weak front during Friday, and perhaps a few showers developing over the SWLD with an inland trough. Showers grazing the east coast may swing onshore during early next week.

00z UKMET Rainfall - Next 7 days - HIGH CHANCE

Quiet weather as per the ICON then the system over the west bringing patchy rain through southern WA. Showers develop along the east coast in onshore winds.

LONGER TERM


00z CMC Rainfall - Next 10 days - MODERATE CHANCE

After a quiet 5 days, the showers return over the eastern inland of QLD and NSW with the heaviest falls through QLD at this stage. Another change over the southwest will bring showers with a follow up trough reinforcing the shower activity throughout the region. The first trough from WA comes through SA and into VIC producing showers, more extensive through VIC.

00z EURO Rainfall - Next 10 days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Dry 5 days coming up and then the moisture returns through the eastern inland with a trough developing with showers and thunderstorms about from early next week. Another trough in the SWLD of WA bringing showers later this weekend will be followed by a stronger system to produce more widespread rainfall. The lead trough from WA sweeps in mid next week through the southeast bringing showers and storms. Dry elsewhere.

06z GFS Rainfall - Next 10 days - MODERATE CHANCE

Latest GFS brings the showers and storms into the east from early next week, increasing Tuesday and then a front picks up that moisture, which comes in from WA enhancing the rainfall coverage over the eastern parts of the nation. Lighter falls for SA but could change. Otherwise the moisture over the tropics activates earlier than the other models. The GFS is the outlier but has been consistent in its approach against the other more volatile modelling.

00z KMA Rainfall - Next 12 days - MODERATE CHANCE

Good agreement in the dry spell coming up over the next 5 days nationwide. Then as per the GFS, the rainfall picks up in the east with an inland trough. The rainfall could become heavy over eastern Australia as a weak trough from WA which also brings showers early next week runs into moisture over the eastern states seeing extensive rainfall under such guidance. Like the GFS the KMA also recognises the moisture over the tropics.

ENSEMBLE


00z GFS Ensemble Rainfall - Next 15 days - HIGH CHANCE.

Has been most consistent in the modelling of the coming week's dry spell and then seeing the weather turn during the weekend into early next week over the southwest and eastern parts of the nation. The other models are playing catch up to an extent. The weather turns very wet later September over the southeast and again in early October with multiple rounds of low pressure passing through a moist airmass over southern and eastern Australia.

00z Euro Ensemble Rainfall - Next 15 days - LOW CHANCE.

Running a bit too dry on current guidance and I suspect this will change over coming days.

00z CMC Ensemble Rainfall - Next 15 days - MODERATE CHANCE.

Still a wet look in the CMC ensemble data for the remainder of September into early October with multiple waves of low pressure over the east combining with moisture off the positive SAM phase seeing above average rainfall for many in QLD, NSW and VIC. Moderate rainfall possible for the Ag areas of SA and WA. Rainfall returns over the tropics from early October.

More coming up tomorrow from 7am.